Trump's favourite populist followed his playbook. It's gone wrong.

[elhombresinnombre]

Trump's favourite populist followed his playbook. Now it's all gone wrong

Argentine President Javier Milei's approval rating is tanking - and it could be a warning for the US leader ahead of crucial midterm elections

inews.co.uk

It's quite a long read and contains nothing that we haven't heard before. But maybe readers of the I Paper haven't heard it before?

 

[Che1990]

It’ll be interesting to see what happens next. 18 months till the election. The only thing playing in Milei’s favour is the heavily divided opposition.

 

[LuckyLuke]

The only thing playing in Milei’s favour is the heavily divided opposition.

Exactly....as the saying goes, to outrun a bear you just have to be faster than the slowest person.

The only wildcard I see is that Macri may bring enough of a centrist resurgence in the PRO to dilute the LLA voter base. Which, ironically could very well hand the PJ party a near victory if they can find a decent candidate. IMO, Milei's alliance with the PRO ahead of election will be crucial.

 

[FrankPintor]

I can't see Macri leading any sort of resurgence, he's basically a figure of fun now, a deeply unserious person, who lost his party and any authority he had with defections to Milei, and with his attempts to make up with Milei met with absolute contempt. I guess you know someone's in trouble when Patricia Bullrich tries to hug them.

TBH, I think Villaruel will try to get the Peronist ticket, and that will be... just strange.

 

[Johnny]

I can't see Macri leading any sort of resurgence, he's basically a figure of fun now, a deeply unserious person, who lost his party and any authority he had with defections to Milei, and with his attempts to make up with Milei met with absolute contempt. I guess you know someone's in trouble when Patricia Bullrich tries to hug them.

TBH, I think Villaruel will try to get the Peronist ticket, and that will be... just strange.

I think Villarruel is, and has been, trying to undermine Milei and his crowd so she can jump up to the top of the LLA, and have a chance at the presidency. She's a schemer to be sure but then they all are.

 

[Che1990]

The other thing to watch out for is what the opposition will do to destabilise Milei.

Look at what’s happening in Bolivia. That could easily happen here. Similar things have happened in the past.

And who knows. I firmly believe business could turn on Milei, if they haven’t already.

Just think, the policies of opening up Argentina and strengthening the exchange rate has negatively affected lots of them, who would’ve voted for him thinking the high inflation and taxes of the last government were the enemy.

But now, they have ridic high costs and have to compete with ridic cheap imports.

If you look on Merado Libre for random stuff like furniture, homeware, clothes, it’s all a hell of a lot cheaper in pesos than in 2024 and early 2025 because of all the imports.

Prices were eyewatering for basic things. I remember looking for a wok pan in 2024, and it was all like minimum 70k pesos (dollar at 1050). Now, you get them for 35k, even 18 months later.

Now, if you’re an Argentine business, manufacturer or have a physical shop, you have to compete with that. All while inflation remains and salaries aren’t keeping up. It’s impossible.

Imagine how Marcos Galperin’s business has been affected. He now has to compete with Amazon, Temu and Shein. He is very pro Milei, but you can’t help but think he must be questioning certain things.

The same with estate agents. The government wants to deregulate their ridiculous industry. It’s great for the wider public, but they’ll lose out if their made to scrap their minimum honorarios and the requirement to have a matricula.

Thats another industry that would’ve voted for Milei in 2023 now potentially against him. Just like the yerba industry in Misiones.

And if Kirchnerismo collude with these sectors and “formadores de precio” to “create” inflation and a crisis, Milei is cooked.