U.S. to make hundreds of millions on Milei win

[sergio]

IMO, there won't be a sudden devaluation per se. The currency will float and if needed they will raise the band techo.

Are they going to go through the $40 bil trying to sustain an inflated exchange rate? Nobody is ever going to trust the peso, especially when they know it isn't allowed to reflect market value

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

Back to 1500 that didn’t last long..

 

[Caribbean Cool]

Back to 1500 that didn’t last long..

Yes. 1505, It goes to show you that you can't 'buy' the market. And the market for the peso this afternoon is in terrible condition. Much worse than before. It will be interesting to see what the next Western Union adjustment is.

 

[Che1990]

Are they going to go through the $40 bil trying to sustain an inflated exchange rate? Nobody is ever going to trust the peso, especially when they know it isn't allowed to reflect market value

I thought the whole idea of maintaining the exchange rate low was to get through the mid-term elections.

Which they now have. Surely; they need to take advantage of this time now to do the painful deed of competely liberating the exchange rate - and allowing for a true flotation for all sectors of society (businesses and not just individuals) so any pain is forgotten about by 2027.

How it was before will spell trouble later on, it was unsustainable systemz

 

[RichardAlem]

This is the problem and until it is addressed, the peso will remain moribund. All the IMF loans and cash swaps imaginable cannot staunch the monetary entropy.

 

[carride]

Often you can see the upper and/or lower bands published as a graph. Here is one of many places to see it live.

Floating Bands of the Argentine Peso (Sebastian.Waisgold) — Indicator by sebastian.waisgold

The BCRA (Central Bank of the Argentine Republic) announced that as of Monday, April 15, 2025, the Argentine Peso (USDARS) will float within a system of divergent exchange rate bands. The upper band was set at ARS 1400 per USD on 15/04/2025, with a +1% monthly adjustment distributed daily...

www.tradingview.com

Quick script analysis shows the graph is just doing the +/- 1% math. Not really pulling the true data from BCRA. A better graph would get the daily data from the BCRA APIs
Upper limit daily: https://www.bcra.gob.ar/Publicacion...ite%20superior%20$1.400%20+%201%25%20mensual)

Lower limit daily: https://www.bcra.gob.ar/PublicacionesEstadisticas/Principales_variables_datos.asp?serie=7928&detalle=R%E9gimen%20de%20bandas%20cambiarias%20(L%EDmite%20inferior%20$1.000%20-%201%%20mensual)

 

[LuckyLuke]

Nobody is ever going to trust the peso, especially when they know it isn't allowed to reflect market value

Plenty of people trust a plazo fijo will earn them more than a dollar in a 30, 60, or 90 day period. Last year has consistently shown peso investments outpacing the dollar. A lot of smart investors sold dollars ahead of the election to buy the Merval knowing it would take off with an LLA victory. Buying physical dollars is considered by investors to be for simpletons who don't understand the investment landscape here. YPF is up 27%.

 

[Ries]

Plenty of people trust a plazo fijo will earn them more than a dollar in a 30, 60, or 90 day period. Last year has consistently shown peso investments outpacing the dollar. A lot of smart investors sold dollars ahead of the election to buy the Merval knowing it would take off with an LLA victory. Buying physical dollars is considered by investors to be for simpletons who don't understand the investment landscape here. YPF is up 27%.

Most argentines must not be smart investors. Estimates are that there are $275 Billion dollars in physical $100 dollar bills in Argentina.

 

[LuckyLuke]

Most argentines must not be smart investors. Estimates are that there are $275 Billion dollars in physical $100 dollar bills in Argentina.

All real estate transactions are conducted in dollars. 30% of Buenos Aires rentals are listed in dollars. Dollars as a medium of exchange or a storage of value does not make it an income returning investment anymore than a depreciating house does. Argentina has a long way to go normalize investing in something other plan de ahorros and rainbow exchange crypto schemes. I suspect much of the physical bills down here have a lot less to do with investment savvyness and more to do with rampant negreada.