What do we think will happen with the exchange rate?

[AdrianB]

How come compra and venta are the same today for ccl and mep?

 

[Aztangogirl]

So will you stay on if everything costs 4x the price?

Yes. Argentina is my home.

 

[Caribbean Cool]

The exchange rate makes me think of a rider of a bucking bronco... a nice ride but it usually ends the same way.....ouch

 

[steveinbsas]

So will you stay on if everything costs 4x the price?

One item I purchased in quantity (28 cartuchos de gas butano Brogas) on MercadoLibre has increased in pricebin pesos from $16.658 to $98.900 (with free shipping) since I made the purchase on 17 de mayo.

I will calculate the dollar figures later.

 

[retiredbanker]

It's been told to me I should have entered politics but I didn't listen.

 

[mikic007]

It will not happen imho as Milei is determined to stop this double exchange rate . Of course life is becoming very difficult due to high cost

Milei can be determined all he wants, if he is printing, dólar will go up. If it's not available to everyone at official rate through official channels, we'll have double exchange rate.

I understand it's a process, but government can't throw fit every time usd jumps. I'm afraid milei was so busy telling everyone how tough it will be, that he forgot it will be toughest for him and his policies.

 

[Ries]

I have been in Argentina part time since 2007. A certain amount of inflation is due to the exchange rate- if the dollar changes, due to global petro-politics, climate, or elections, it affects the exchange rate.
But what we are seeing now is inflation, while the dollar exchange rate is staying pretty stable, so in dollar terms, prices are going up just as fast as in peso terms.
This means its an internal argentine inflation, not a dollar related one.

 

[mikic007]

I have been in Argentina part time since 2007. A certain amount of inflation is due to the exchange rate- if the dollar changes, due to global petro-politics, climate, or elections, it affects the exchange rate.
But what we are seeing now is inflation, while the dollar exchange rate is staying pretty stable, so in dollar terms, prices are going up just as fast as in peso terms.
This means its an internal argentine inflation, not a dollar related one.

Not an expert, but that is easy one. Happened often in this time of the year, before paritarias, this year it's just much more problematic due to recent changes. A lot is going on and is hard to get through everything, but in general what we are seeing is businesses trying to cut loses in front, and back as well. There was too many pesos around and surplus went into dolars. With milei intervention, businesses saw it justified to double the prices, that's inflation by itself. Less people could buy dolars, because they have barely to get by. Many are also selling colchón dolars, to maintain lifestyle, so instead of buying, they are putting them into system. At the moment dolars are not as wanted as before, because one needs double amount of pesos to live.

Huge amount of pesos is now flowing into different businesses, that are not operating with cuevas, they will also need part of them to pay higher salaries in the following months. It is completely unknown to most of us, how much the adjustment will be, but I heard pharmacies are going 90%+. Less than 60% I don't expect. So when this salaries hit the market, that is already pretty cold, I expect prices to keep dropping/remain stable, while purchase power will allow people again to buy dolars.

All markets are disrupted and usd is not excluded. Milei probably wanted to get some surplus before he'll need to print much more (like businesses are doing) for the salaries/pensions adjustments. Maybe it worked, I don't know, but for sure not enough that new pesos won't make another 3 digits inflation.

It's a circle of inflation we are watching for decade. It's not only countries deficit to power inflation, there is always psychological effect. If Milei won't try to restrict the market in the way previous governments were doing, people will need to get extremely poor for the plan to work.

I was paid in pesos in 2013, and I've got 28% adjustment in February (something like that). I already thought, I shouldn't get it, because it's a spiral, system that fuels inflation all the time. Businesses higher prices in Dec, Jan, Feb, paritarias higher salaries and this goes on and on. You have to cut both at the same time, but this isn't very capitalistic thing to do. But in reality, countries with high inflation, that can't count on foreign aid, have to cut spiral by very unconventional means.

 

[argeiCanuck]

This means its an internal argentine inflation, not a dollar related one.

Couldn't agree more.

Dollarization, replacing a Dollar for a 1000 pesos is replacing a quarter for 25¢. Is not part of the solution. Theatrical distraction. The guy is .

There is no get away from confronting Argentina's internal inflation.

 

[argeiCanuck]

Zimbabwe Dollarized but it's still Zimbabwe. Nothing changed.