What Will Happen First?

[Jaredberryman]

I think we won't see any major implosions until after Cristian leaves, just all sorts of episodes like Friday. Whoever comes in next will be blamed for the problems just like De la Rua and won't make it through his/her term. We'll have some instability until 2015, but nothing earth shattering. The dangerous thing would then be if Cristina tries to take the reigns again after the next president is ousted. Then Argentina would be a de facto dictatorship, just like Venezuela.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

A friend of mine who owns an hostería here in Esquel just made a run to purchase as many low-energy light bulbs as he could, in anticipation of shortages and price rises on what he thinks will be "Black Monday."

 

[Gringoboy]

Good to see so many optimists here and I use the word very loosely.
Cristina appears to have opted out except in major policy decisions that affect the K model and the country is effectively being run by The Captain and Zannini, who many compare to some latter day Lopez Rega.
I don't think there's any love lost between Kicillof and The Captain and I see Kicillof resigning sooner rather than later.

 

[AmigoArtistico]

...and the country is effectively being run by The Captain and Zannini...

Tennille couldn't make it.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I am coming round to the belief that there is an acceptance in FpV (or perhaps everyone except Captain Itchy) that next years elections are a lost cause, but that if they hand over a scuppered ship with no dollars in reserve they will be back a bang in 4 years time playing the crisis recovery card.

Anyone taking over with an economy leaking reserves, a short term funding gap and increasing energy crisis will not last long. Several funding drains have been created and revenue has not been sourced externally or internally to manage them. Whoever is in power when vaca muerta finally starts creating some income will have an easier ride than the next govt. Worst case is another series of temporary govts making a series of panic measures while the economy collapses around itself.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

Andrew Graham-Yooll on the subtler side of Argentine inflation: http://tinyurl.com/op5juod