Whatever happened to the real estate crash? (When are prices goin to fall?)

steveinbsas

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Thanks in part to inflation, the predicted decline in prices has not happened. In fact, I see prices higher than ever in the most desirable areas.
 

steveinbsas

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Are there any other forum members have been following the real estate market in the past year?

If so, have you seen prices going up, down, or staying flat compared to a year ago?
 

sergio

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I wasn´t expecting a crash. Property is almost 100% transacted in cash here, so no bubble as in the US. The slow economy must be affecting sales but prices seem stable. Maybe Pericles would like to comment.
 

SaraSara

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My Arg. friends and relatives believe that the only safe investment is to buy homes and apartments: "ladrillos". Agricultural land is even better, but too expensive for most people.
 

perry

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I remember last year saying that prices will not fall and that a real estate investment in a prime location was very safe and being mocked at by many here. Prices in 2009 definetly increased around 10 percent in good barrios with Almagro showing increases of close to 20 percent.

How can prices crash when demand is so high and good priced solid merchandise being in short supply?

Inflation in Argentina runs at 20 percent also creating higher demand for property purchases . I have more enquiries than ever but from the local market which make up over 90 percent of my buyers. This trend will continue upwards as currencies becoming weaker especially in the coming year with the devaluation of the euro .

If you can honestly ask yourself what is safer to keep now 150000 dollars in a safety deposit box or a well located and priced property in Barrio Norte I am sure most of you will go for the latter as it is a real asset that can be traded with and less risk than holding fiat currencies.

Buenos Aires premium property prices in many cases are very cheap by world standards with maximum prices of US 4000 per square metre . This is for the best buildings of Argentina that are in most cases superior to any others in the world .
The details you can get in these apartments and buildings are unheard of in most European cities and still they are less than half the price of most world capitals.
 

ghost

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" This is for the best buildings of Argentina that are in most cases superior to any others in the world ."

I was nodding my head "yes" until I got to this line. Sorry, when one looks at infrastructure and building codes. The terms "superior" and Argentina do not go hand in hand.
 

perry

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ghost said:
" This is for the best buildings of Argentina that are in most cases superior to any others in the world ."

I was nodding my head "yes" until I got to this line. Sorry, when one looks at infrastructure and building codes. The terms "superior" and Argentina do not go hand in hand.

Yes I fully agree with you Ghost on this comment . Most buildings constructed today are shoddy with little attention to details . My post was referring to the golden age of Buenos Aires Architecture . The best examples of these buildings can be found on Avenida De Mayo, Alvear Avenue, Rodriguez Pena, Ayacucho, Riobamba, Avenida Rivadavia and others. Many buildings from that age have very solid construction with intricacy of details that is rarely seen anywhere. I can mention many famous apartment buildings with important entrances and doors that historians believe to be the best examples worldwide. One of my favourite streches of buildings is along Avenida de Mayo from Nueve de Julio to Plaza Congreso passing the Palacio Barolo. Here you will see domes of all shapes and sizes and marble staircases that were shipped at great cost from Europe. Apartments to purchase in this neighbourhood are between 1500 to 2000 dollars a square metre . For what you pay for there you cannot get anywhere else worldwide now and more so if you look at the location a 5 min walk to the Centre Of Buenos Aires.

Recoleta of course is dearer but even the best old world buildings are around US $ 2500 to US $ 3500 per square metre. As you cannot replicate these buildings and details ever again of course they will go up in price.
 

bsas

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This sounds like something someone would have said about the US real estate market in 2008, when prices were still increasing in many markets while sales were falling fast, particularly in the case of mid-range buyers.

The Argentine residential real estate market is driven internally by the availability of cash combined with the lack of any other 'safe' investment. That cash generally comes during the boom times from the rental of farm land in the pampas, and those prices have jumped since 2001 due to the boom in soy. However, as goes the price of commodities so go the fortunes of Buenos Aires. Landowners, i.e., the majority of people living in neighborhoods where expats live, are used to huge swings in the rental price of their land. They're also locked in that historical battle with the peronists. Its a long and sad historical fact that the country suffers from boom and bust cycles that are fed in part by the Peronists unending need for more cash that cripples farmers and leads to capital flight.

As far as foreign buyers, Buenos Aires is a very expensive choice nowadays. Just compare these two similarly priced listings, one in Recoleta and the other close to the beach in Fort Lauderdale, FL.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1475-Se-15Th-St-Unit-319_Fort-Lauderdale_FL_33316_1112271009

http://aviso.zonaprop.com.ar/189486-guido-2400-barrio-norte-capital-federal

I'll take living in Buenos Aires any day over Florida, but if I'm investing in some sort of rental property, I'd definitely choose the condo in Florida.
 

perry

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Comparing Buenos Aires to Florida Detroit and other cities in middle America has no basis in facts. Prices are determined by supply and demand. In the case of the United States there is tremendous supply and less demand .
Millions have lost their homes of late in the USA due to unpaid loans . Combine this with the outrageous land taxes buying that 10000 dollar home in Detroit or 50000 dollar condo in Miami is not a good deal .

The comparison above of Fort lauderdale Florida to a capital city Buenos Aires and its best barrio Recoleta is not a good one.

Number one the Fort Lauderdale Florida property posted by Bsas at US $ 189000 is hardly a good deal especially with the huge oversupply of properties. The comparison you posted on Guido Recoleta was also way overpriced for the metres and location at US $ 160000. There are excellent deals in Recoleta if you look for just US $ 2000 per metre .

Recently I sold a very nice apartment posted here for just 4 days at US $ 85000 and it had 44 metres and was sold furnished. It was also located on Guido and offered excellent views.

This thread is about prices increasing of late and since this topic was talked about in 2008 and 2009 with the same people saying that prices will crash in Buenos Aires but the opposite has happened. Why is that you may ask and the answer is simple 96 percent of all properties are brought in cash and with strong demand and less merchandise available a good property fairly priced and well situated sells .

Yes I work in real estate and have a inside knowledge of the market that I am expressing here .
I am definetly not trying to talk up real estate in Buenos Aires but the facts are the facts prices are rising and demand is constant . In our offices we have never had as many enquiries especially from europeans as there is rumours of a corralito happening in Spain and other countries soon .

Ask yourself honestly is it safer to hold fiat currencies . Now you may not want to buy real estate here fine but the options to invest your monies are very limited creating further increases.
 
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