What's happening in Argentina in the context of global geopolitics

[bigbadwolf]

Red
No, Argentina will have some affect, but it will have a better chance of survival. The main reason is this country seems to "rest" every 8-10 years. I guess people just get use to it.

A more plausible answer might be: How much worse can it get for people like the cartoneros and for those living in the villas miseria?

 

[Smartypants]

My take is that this time it's the only one left with money that will get hit the hardest, since they're the only one that got some paper value left to lose... All the people that have put their bet's on the dollar.

The world is in the transition from one world reserve currency to a basket of currencies and commodity reserves.

In a downward global credit deflating spiral, the game is about to lose the least, compared to the game in a credit inflating world, where the ones that gained or the most greedy won.

But I think it's possible to surf the downward spiral, jumping between currencies, shorting stocks and commodities and saving in gold or real estate.

The Cartoneros will be relative fine

 

[criswkh]

Here is hypothetical.....What if in 2009 the US defaults on loans, changes currency to the Amero? How will this affect Argentina?
The cartoneros might get less boxes from all the foreigners coming over here. Unless the dollar and euros stay strong against the peso. Those in the villas miseria might see an increase in population.

 

[Stanexpat]

Here is hypothetical.....What if in 2009 the US defaults on loans, changes currency to the Amero? How will this affect Argentina?
The cartoneros might get less boxes from all the foreigners coming over here. Unless the dollar and euros stay strong against the peso. Those in the villas miseria might see an increase in population.

The first I heard about the Amero was an EMAIL I got from a friend in Argentina. It's complete nonsense. The main guy promoting this is Hal Turner who is a real nut from New Jersey. His video on the subject is in the link below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge2J2lNusJs

 

[perry]

I do believe that that the American Dollar is way overvalued now and we will see the end of the dominance of this currency soon. Buying gold is always the best and of course tangible assets.

 

[Rad]

No, Argentina will have some affect, but it will have a better chance of survival. The main reason is this country seems to "rest" every 8-10 years. I guess people just get use to it.

Using this logic, countries like Congo or Mozamique have the best chances for survival. They have nowhere to go but up!

A few things for perspective:

- If the US GDP per capita goes down by 50%, it will still be 2 to 4 times higher than Argentine GDP (depending on which source you use). So how does it help if Argentina does relatively "better"? (It will probably do worse, but that's another issue).

- Some people worry that there will be riots in USA if things go really bad. Well, during the height of the recent Argentine economic expansion, there were riots because the airport workers were on strike and because Subte did not work!!! What will happen if there is a downturn?

Don't get me wrong, I love Argentina. It's a beautiful country, but I don't think that burying my head in the sand and/or rationalizing why it's different in Argentina than everywhere else is the best thing to do.

 

[soulskier]

From RGE Monitor: Argentina: Good News, Bad News

Interesting tidbit:

Tourism is said to be off 40%, and many hotels are introducing discounts in order to bolster occupancy. The decline in tourism is adding to the slowdown in retail activity and the property market. Shopping centers reported a 12.8% y/y decline during September.
​

And yet some people still insist that Argentine real estate will be unaffected by the global crisis. The whole World could blow up and Argentina would be unaffected, right?

Weird, I have continued to be surprised by the steady bookings of our rental properties we manage in Bariloche.

 

[criswkh]

I don't think that burying my head in the sand and/or rationalizing why it's different in Argentina than everywhere else is the best thing to do.

I agree with you on that point. If you want to be really rational no places is safe and as far as economic is concern we should worry more out our environment.