When will Argentina default ?

perry

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This negative article implies that Argentina could default on its foreign debt very soon as the useable foreign reserves are less than 12 billion dollars . Argentina accumulated under Macri over 105 billion dollars of debt and this country has no means to pay this back nor any more credit lines . The default is coming but when .
I believe it will be sooner than later and could be in 2020 . This will have a huge effect on the economy creating hyper inflation and devaluation something similar to Venezuela. As expats in Argentina we must have always a second option as when the shit hits the fan time is of the essence .
 
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This negative article implies that Argentina could default on its foreign debt very soon as the useable foreign reserves are less than 12 billion dollars . Argentina accumulated under Macri over 105 billion dollars of debt and this country has no means to pay this back nor any more credit lines . The default is coming but when .
I believe it will be sooner than later and could be in 2020 . This will have a huge effect on the economy creating hyper inflation and devaluation something similar to Venezuela. As expats in Argentina we must have always a second option as when the shit hits the fan time is of the essence .

Ufff hard times around the corner the poor are already starting to lose weight here I have noticed it. One can only imagine what is coming. Time will tell.
 
I am fortunate that I have Australian and European citenzship but for many Argentinians they do not have this option . I mentioned on this forum before the only country that I could seriously recommend to inmigrate to in South America is Peru due to its favourable business laws and stability .

All our neighbouring countries like Chile. Bolivia and Ecuador are going through very hard times now and in the case of Chile there seems to be a concerted effort to topple the Pinera Government . As much as Chile could improve it actually could get much worse with a left wing government taking its cues from Venezuela . The billions of dollars of damage to Chiles infrestracture will cause the economy to falter as is now happening as Chile will enter recession . There is no nirvana in South America for the working classes and this must be improved so they can earn a decent minimum wage . In most countries in the region the minimum wage is less than US$ 400 a month a pittance that creates social resentment .

In Argentina today the minimum wage is less than US$ 300 a month but the costs for the essentials is dearer than Bolivia , Peru and Ecuador . Food prices are the biggest problem and they should be regulated by the government and not used as especulation tools by big business .

In Venezuela now food prices are skyhigh even though its a agriculturally rich country . It would be very easy to supply each family with the basics at very low cost as to help them tide over this shocking period for them . Every day many people are starving there and the hospitals have no medicines . This is a human rights crime of inmense proportions resulting in the genocide of thousands of venezuelans per month . People need to speak up about this more often and not Chile nor Bolivia.
 
And the first of several Metrogas bills are arriving...reflecting the real increases..yikes!
But my electric bill dropped from over $5000p last month to $900p just received. I have quit trying to figure out utility bills here.
 
i spent 2 hours on the weekend trying to decode my gf's aysa water bills. finally i figured out they split a "bill" into two months, and the bill actually covers a period of about 2 month delayed. it's insanity really.
 
And the first of several Metrogas bills are arriving...reflecting the real increases..yikes!

I like the new government to express its policies and explain what plans they have to avoid a default . Its a very critical situation that can make 2001 seem like a walk in the park .

 
There is no plan to avoid a default. The debt will be defaulted it is that simple. It is either that or face enormous political instability that will have even worse effects than the debt.

Argentina has very little imports. Their primary exports are food, which other countries like China need. As a result, Argentina already is not very dependent or connected to the global system. Trade as a percent of GDP is one of the lowest is the world. The economy of Argentina is very locally focused.

Considering the people's attitudes toward any austerity and towards the IMF it seems obvious that the most politically expedient solution is to default. The societal disruption that will occur as a result of harsh austerity will be more than the IMF loan. And, the truth is, not defaulting will likely lead to a situation like Chile. And, at the end Argentina will suffer both societal costs of political instability AND the costs of a default.

Will they be frozen out of the debt markets in the future? Probably, but historically they they have not actually utilized debt markets that much. The debt to GDP of Argentina prior to the enormous debt runup caused by Macri was a mere 40%. And, there is so much available capital in the world with no investment I doubt they will even be 100% frozen from debt markets even after default. Money is very stupid right now, so it's anyones guess.

As for whether the people will suffer? That goes without saying. Everyone will take a hair cut. Life will get harder. 2001 will be looked back upon as the "good times" because there is not a commodity boom that will bail Argentina out of this mess and Argentina already fully exploited and used up it's soils by spraying pesticides and monocropping soy.

Does it suck? Yes, but someone has to be the example to warn others away from bad policy and Argentina chose to be said example. I thank them for their service and hope it will warn other people.
 
I think Ecuador once declared their debt illegal and did not pay...
 
But my electric bill dropped from over $5000p last month to $900p just received. I have quit trying to figure out utility bills here.

It could be because they have some random 'estimated' figure they use in lieu of a actually checking your meter. (Your 900p).

So when they eventually get round to it and see you've used more electricity than their guesses, they then bill you for the difference. (Your 5000p).

Who knows though, things run on magical realism , melodrama, and tradgecomedy when it comes to the utilities out here...

Cheers!
 
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