Matt, thank you for the details you're bringing, so far I have only pointed out those that I disagree with, which nevertheless provide an opportunity too look into the subject, while other details that I leave unanswered I find accurate and insightful. By the way, captainmcd, thank you too for your kind words.
Matt84 said:
If only Argentine diplomats were as reasonable as you this issue would be settled by now. But of course why would the Argentine Government want this issue settled? As someone cleverly said in some of the other four threads currently active on the topic, the Malvinas Argentinas are worth a lot more in political capital as long as they stay under British control, than they would be worth (or cost...) if Argentina anschlüssed them.
I don't think that's completely fair. You mentioned the case of the Beagle dispute, where the government accepted a settlement that was disappointing in comparison with previous aspirations. They did it in accordance to what the people decided in a referendum, with a colorful televised debate where the government put forward the 'let's accept' proposition.
The state of the islands affair is that the UK is not accepting talks, offering a justification that may be translated into 'our argument (i.e., self determination) is so unquestionable that there's nothing to talk about'. Before the war, the British approaches were, when seen from the Argentine point of view, frustrating too. Given this, I think it's odd to put the responsibility for the stalemate on an hypothetical irrationality of the Argentine diplomats.
We don't know what they would argue at a negotiating table. If they have to follow orders from our current administration they might have to be too rigid, but during Menem's administration, with all the ills of that government, we had intelligent and well-educated diplomats on this issue, like Andres Cisneros, who appears in the media now and then. Even though he's clearly convinced that the islands are Argentine and won't approve a veto for the islanders, I think I remember that he once said that one possibility might be giving one island to each country. I like the idea of the dispute morphing into which island throws the best party.
Let me quote two passages that are not coherent with the idea that the Argentine claim is an irrational proposal from populist governments. Firstly, Freedman's, "The Official History of the Falklands, Vol. 1". He writes in page 9:
Few of those who have examined the historical evidence are confident that the Port Egmont settlement provided a sufficient basis for the seizure of the Islands by Britain. Having perused the papers in 1829, the Duke of Wellington as Prime Minister remarked that it was not clear to him ‘that we have ever possessed the sovereignty of these Islands.' Through the rest of the nineteenth century successive British governments assumed the case to be closed and did not always bother to respond to the occasional Argentine protest. In 1908 the issue suddenly came to a head as a result of Argentine protests at the inclusion of the Falkland Islands as a British possession in the Rome Postal Union Convention. As always Britain rejected the protests but, aware of the coming centenary celebrations in Argentina, decided to investigate the matter further. In 1910, Gaston de Bernhardt, the Foreign Office’s Assistant Librarian, produced a substantial memorandum on the history of the dispute. The effect was to increase respect for the Argentine claim. ‘For more than 60 years we have refused to discuss the question with the Argentine government,’ observed a recipient of the memo, ‘but from a perusal of this memo it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Argentine government’s attitude is not altogether unjustified, and that our action has been somewhat high handed.’
Thus confidence remained at a low ebb for the next couple of decades, not helped by a substantial American analysis supporting the Argentine claim which was published in 1927.
Gustafson writes in page 32 of "The Dispute...":
In 1910, the British Foreign Office began to entertain doubts about the historical right England had to the Falklands that supposedly made the 1833 incident a mere reassertion of right. Some feared that the incident had indeed been unjustified, that conquest, at least in the twentieth century, did not provide title, and that a basis other than historic right and conquest should be emphasized. All of this was precipitated by Argentina's continuing protests. In 1908 Argentina objected to the Rome Postal Union Convention because it included the Falklands as a British possession. In 1910 the Malvinas were frequently mentioned during the centenary celebrations of Argentina's independence. A new generation in the Foreign Office, not surprisingly uninformed about the Falklands, requested that Gaston de Bernhardt, the assistant librarian, write a report on the dispute. The 7 December 1910 forty-nine-page report, according to Peter Beck, "implied various weaknesses in the traditional British case for sovereignty. It began to seem that in 1833 Britain had seized control of a legitimate Argentine possession."
After December 1910 various British diplomats began questioning British title. Gerald Spicer, the head of the Foreign Office's American department, had said in June 1910 that Britain's claim to the Falklands "cannot be seriously contested." On 12 December he said that "from a perusal of this memo it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the Argentine Government's attitude is not altogether unjustified, and that our action has been somewhat highhanded." Ronald Campbell, an assistant secretary in the American department, wrote in July 1911 that Buenos Aires, having inherited Spain's title, had the best claim to the Falklands. "We cannot easily make out a good claim," he wrote, "and we have very wisely done everything to avoid discussing the subject with Argentina." After Sir Malcolm Robertson, the British ambassador in Buenos Aires in the late 1920s, read the 1910 report he wrote, that "The Argentine attitude is neither 'ridiculous' nor 'childish.' ... I confess that, until I received that memorandum myself a few weeks ago, I had no idea of the strength of the Argentine case nor of the weakness of ours. ... I had assumed that our right to the Falkland Islands was unassailable. This is very far from being the case."
The British had come to suspect that the Argentine demand for the return of the Malvinas was more than a people's aspiration.
I stress that the first quote if from UK's official historian for the Falklands Campaign and the second is from a book published by Oxford University.
Matt84 said:
Only as long as you consider a couple of government contracts and failed enterprises more relevant than 100+ years of permanent settlement.
The settlement was not insignificant for the time and it was prospering, unless we consider the attack from USS Lexington as their failure. We don't know what level of development it would have reached if Argentine efforts were left untroubled, without that incident or with it, after the reconstruction efforts that were started. Besides, I feel that building an argument around the destruction by the American ship is like having them do the UK's dirty work. In which way would that episode prove that the Argentine were incapable or unwilling to inhabit the islands?
Besides, with that argument, any power could take land from another country, develop it and then claim it? What if a community inhabiting certain country claims its independence, or their allegiance to another state of their liking, on the basis that they had developed that land? What effect would it have on the attitude towards immigrant communities?
The settlement over time (i.e., acquisitive prescription) is the basis of the British position since around 1930, when they dropped the previous argumentative line based on first landing. The books that I quoted above go on with that argumentative line, attributing importance to it. Yet, this principle normally requires acquiescence from the other part, I think dropping that requirement is not a minor thing at all. If you have the title to a parcel but leave it forgotten, I think it's fair and productive that, after a certain period of time, a proper title is awarded to an occupant who has developed it and visibly acted as a good-faith owner. But not if the previous owners had claims that were ignored, and certainly not if they were being impeded by force to exercise their ownership, even if it's just by means of intimidation with no shots being fired. Acquisitive prescription under such conditions can hardly constitute an argument so unquestionable that it would be irrational and childlike to challenge it.
Matt84 said:
Even if you were right about the islands being illegally taken away from the United Provinces according to 1830s international law (!) - the islands have remained British for more than a century, it's not a military or scientific outpost like France's Kerguelen, people live there and raise their children and sheep there. No government can handle them, or their town, to a country they have nothing in common with, it would be as inhumane as suddenly deporting thousands because of some 19th century legal technicality. It is the exact opposite case as Hong Kong.
I don't think that it would be inhumane to transfer sovereignty of the islands. According to Argentine law, the islanders are Argentine citizens with full rights, and there are lots of possibilities to explore as part of the negotiation: Ad-hoc laws for them to maintain their official language and customs, in case our constitution doesn't provide those rights already. Lease back so that they need to decide to stay or leave only after one or two generations. Economic aid in case they prefer to emmigrate. British nationality for their children born in the islands. Etc... They're only 2000 people if we don't count the 1000 affected to the naval base, it shouldn't be too hard to offer them guarantees for a better-than-acceptable standard of living. Who's interested in forcing them to drive on the right and such things? If Argentina was bound to preserving customs by a treaty, would she make a clown of herself in the international scene by not complying?
What I'm not sure that an agreement would guarantee for them is the level of confidence they enjoy for the use of fishing licenses (AFAIK, that revenue alone, per capita, more or less doubles the Argentine per capita GDP) plus oil and whatever resources are found, plus the business from the current naval base, which for the time being is economically supported by the people in Great Britain. Still, those issues can be treated in the negotiation. But I wouldn't call it 'inhumane' if they're denied some of those advantages because the talks conclude that they weren't theirs in the first place.
I can understand if, as a conclusion of such a process, the islanders feel troubled, and an effort should be done an all parts to lessen those troubles to a minimum, in the event of a change of sovereignty (which is only one of the possible outcomes of negotiations). But isn't it too much to call that an 'inhumane' treatment?
The illegal or legal status of seizure of foreign land is more than a technicality. The settlers knew they were moving into disputed land. If they were misguided, is the responsibility Argentine or of the British governments that didn't bother to look into the matter before 1910?
As a sidenote, I guess that, in HK, the people probably wanted the UK administration to continue and, even so, it was handed to a government with a doubtful human-rights record. I'm not saying there were better options but let's be clear, it wasn't an example of self determination.
Matt84 said:
But before and after that "Golden" period (1853-1930) the FLs remained that chip in the shoulder of the Populist governments, a cheap card to bring every time instability is sensed.
After 1930, with the rising of nationalism, the case became more prominent and there was such political use, but there were claims during the 1853-1930 period too. Commerce with UK was strong even before 1853 and I doubt the islands were attributed much importance, although they were claimed. I see this reflected in Rosas offering them in exchange of the cancellation of a loan.