YPF Default

[jblaze5779]

I'd imagine the government will end up giving a sweetheart deal to Chinese or Russian oil companies in a few months when no other suitors appear

Gotta pay for those vaccines and faulty respirators somehow.

 

[sts7049]

Vaca Muerta is now finished. No foreign partner or investor will provide the needed investment capital. This is a big negative for Argentina. I am very sad to see it.

no it's not. it's too lucrative to fail.

 

[jblaze5779]

no it's not. it's too lucrative to fail.

Dont know if I agree with this. The source rock is the best known but the costs per barrel to extract and get to market is extremely high.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

It’s very different extracting shale oil in Texas to extracting shale oil in Neuquén.
It barely breaks even in Texas so I very much doubt there will be a shale revolution in Argentina unfortunately.

 

[jblaze5779]

It’s very different extracting shale oil in Texas to extracting shale oil in Neuquén.
It barely breaks even in Texas so I very much doubt there will be a shale revolution in Argentina unfortunately.

Yeah in Texas you don't have to constantly deal with people blocking the roads and unions making your project cost 3more than it should.

 

[Ronnie Hotdogs]

That and all the pipeline infrastructure is already there as are all the service companies etc etc

 

[rickulivi]

All the above are correct, except that Argentina has no dollars to import natural gas or oil (and it needs both because so far it's not self-sufficient in either commodity), so it has a huge incentive to figure out how to make Vaca Muerta came alive.

If I were Cristina, I would be trying to figure out how to make it come alive, because if I were to, imagine how many people I could find work for (and thus votes) and perhaps even more importantly, how much money could I skim off the top if I made Vaca Muerta came alive!

She has a huge incentive to make this work, and she is being advised by a guy that knows a lot about this, the fellow who runs Vista Oil. YPF seems like a very good bet at its current price; then again, you could end up losing it all but what's investing if it's not rolling the dice and hoping for the best!

 

[Rich One]

All the above are correct, except that Argentina has no dollars to import natural gas or oil (and it needs both because so far it's not self-sufficient in either commodity), so it has a huge incentive to figure out how to make Vaca Muerta came alive.

If I were Cristina, I would be trying to figure out how to make it come alive, because if I were to, imagine how many people I could find work for (and thus votes) and perhaps even more importantly, how much money could I skim off the top if I made Vaca Muerta came alive!

She has a huge incentive to make this work, and she is being advised by a guy that knows a lot about this, the fellow who runs Vista Oil. YPF seems like a very good bet at its current price; then again, you could end up losing it all but what's investing if it's not rolling the dice and hoping for the best!

Yes Vista Oil headed by Galuccio former YPF head appointed by Cristina. Well I would say Vista Oil has excellent contacts all the way to the top.
Galluccio was a former Halliburton executive.

 

[jblaze5779]

All the above are correct, except that Argentina has no dollars to import natural gas or oil (and it needs both because so far it's not self-sufficient in either commodity), so it has a huge incentive to figure out how to make Vaca Muerta came alive.

If I were Cristina, I would be trying to figure out how to make it come alive, because if I were to, imagine how many people I could find work for (and thus votes) and perhaps even more importantly, how much money could I skim off the top if I made Vaca Muerta came alive!

She has a huge incentive to make this work, and she is being advised by a guy that knows a lot about this, the fellow who runs Vista Oil. YPF seems like a very good bet at its current price; then again, you could end up losing it all but what's investing if it's not rolling the dice and hoping for the best!

Unfortunately to make it come alive you need to free up imports so companies can get their equipment and cost saving technologies in country. You also need to tame the labor unions. You need to allow the import of extranjeros to train and teach locals how to use effeciences that don't exist here. You also need to provide a confidence to the investors that they can get their money out of the country or thst their investments are safe. You need to produce the oil and gas investment framework they've been talking about for two years and ultimately stick to it....You need to build and operate a railroad from the sea (where ever) so companies can get equipment and frac sands to the Vaca Muerta, this requires dealing with the trucker union. You need to provide international flights direct to Neuquén so companies can get supplies and their personnel direct to the field vs going through Eze.

These things are all counter to her government.

 

[jblaze5779]

Oopps