1 Pm - 1/16/2013 - Dólar Blue Now Trading At 7.50

[lamarque]

It¡s a stampede wait and see.... panic spreads. The waters will calm after the Tsunami... !!
In Venezuela, the Chavez model if applicable, the Bolivar Fuerte was around ten to the dollar a year ago, today 17 , the official rate around 5 Bolivares...!!! spread 300 %.

Well for me it can go to 12000% as long as i can buy at the official rate, and then sell in the black market .

 

[lamarque]

My change guy last week said wait. Tomorrow will be more , Next week ? Who knows ? Even more !!

That is what people were doing in the crisis 2001 buying dollars at any price 6 pesos even and people was saying that the dollar was going to 10 pesos but guest what it go back to 2,6 few month laters, the analogy is not the same in this scenario but still you should be carefull speculating when you are in panic not a good combination. In any case you have other options beside the dollar to scape from this crazyness but off course no one know what the future will bring, specially in Argentina.

 

[el_expatriado]

My change guy last week said wait. Tomorrow will be more , Next week ? Who knows ? Even more !!

I was speaking with an operator who told me a week ago that the people buying dollars at 6.90 were all nuts. He was saying everyone should wait, that it is just pure hysteria and vacation-driven panic buying. Today it is at 7.50 and those people who got 6.90 a week ago are sitting pretty happy.

Is this a bubble? Who knows. But the central bank reserves point to a dollar around 7.15, when you take into account the monetary base that's out there, so I don't think we are far off from where we should be. If the spread gets any bigger than 50%, expect to see the credit cards heat up again and we'll see the credit card tax go from 15% to 30%.

The good old days of inflation only in pesos and not in dollars seem to be at an end. Now those of us expats getting paid in dollars are going to start getting our money's worth again... just like back in 2003-2007.

 

[Ashley]

My husband and I are looking to buy dollars...We've been offered 7.80 at the cueva, which is ridiculous. If anyone needs to exchange and would prefer to do it with an undodgy expat at 7.50, drop me a line...

 

[trennod]

If you can run, Venezuela Is where we are and potentially Cuba Is where we are heading with this govt

 

[Rich One]

The good old days of inflation only in pesos and not in dollars seem to be at an end. Now those of us expats getting paid in dollars are going to start getting our money's worth again... just like back in 2003-2007.

Amen pass the Dom Perignon....!!​

 

[Rich One]

The Blue rate will have another jump around Jan 31 and Feb 15 (obvious), after that will go down slightly to The Current Levels...!!
Plan you dollar sales/purchases accordingly...!!

 

[Conorworld]

It is here:
http://www.facebook.com/dolarblue?fref=ts

It's the spread that is the most interesting aspect of this whole debate. At 50% that is really big. Yes the Blue goes up during holiday season and goes down a bit after but the spread is increasing regardless of the time of the year:

http://dolarblue.net/historico/

This year will probably see an increase in the spread because growth has slowed to low single-digits but inflation is still around 25%. Coupled with a dollar clamp you will see more people running to buy safe dollars to prevent increased erosion of their money in pesos. This has of course been happening for a long time but it will increase in scale quite a lot. A devaluation of the official peso rate would in theory be a good thing, especially to take what I call the lazy way out to returning to competitiveness but also to remove heat out of the black market. However it will instill more fear in the erosion of the price of the pesos perceived or otherwise and thus increase demands for dollars.

Cristina has only herself to blame for this. It is like allowing foundations to erode, it just takes on single little thing for everything to come crashing down.

 

[Illinoisjoe]

So I just arrived here and I need pesos. I brought dollars thinking that would be the best way to get them, but now it seems like xoom.com is the best tradeoff between value and sketchiness. Any recommendations?