So the level of discussion in this thread degenerated pretty fast...
My main point was whether what happens in Venezuela (to some extent a leading indicator when it comes to seeing the effect of monetary policies in place in Argentina) can tell us future repercussions of the current monetary stranglehold; and if so, what effects would it have. Even if it's far-fetched, it lends itself to intelligent discussion. I would expect that BA being such a huge tourist destination (as opposed to Caracas, which is more a source of tourists and business travelers than a recipient, if what I've heard in particular from airline folks in other forums holds true) would
not suffer such measures, as most of the income sources would be tickets purchased outside of Argentina in dollars or other stable currencies. I would not expect government debt to airlines to increase as rapidly here for that reason.
If you guys wanna debate about Chavez and social policy, I'm sure there's a thread specifically about that.
I guess we can fly from Montevideo,
Note the article doesn't imply a
stoppage of flights, but rather a
stoppage of ticket sales in local currency. Basically those of us with residence (and those who are citizens/nationals for that matter) would be treated just as any tourist buying a ticket from BA abroad.
That said, Montevideo is certainly an option if the number of seats is reduced (if demand for dollar-paid tickets shrinks, some flights could be cancelled; not sure how penalties work here in that sense). Use of smaller aircraft for the Buenos Aires market due to shrinking demand is likely infeasible for those northbound carriers due to distance to/from U.S., Panama and Europe, so only flight cancellations could reduce available seats. What I see more likely is some type of price response...
So would this cause prices (in dollars only) to decrease in an attempt to fill seats? This would be a severe market inefficiency for the airlines, as in that case people could just exchange at the blue rate and buy tickets in dollars without suffering severe loss (although AFIP would have a fun time figuring out where these "locals" got their dollars, right)? But could this actually benefit expats traveling abroad (assuming they have income in a-currency-other-than-the-peso? However, If your income is in pesos and you're a resident, this would be quite a disadvantage. Imagine planning a trip with the family that is still two months away, and having to pay it in dollars when the peso is in freefall.
No worries, just wanted to do the mental exercise.