It is very interesting to see what is going to happen, from an individual's perspective in the Peronist party. We can assume that things will get much worse in the months to come:
Alberto: what's in it for him to stay in power as a lame duck until December (the Ks will keep torturing him). He will go down as a one of the worst presidents ever anyway. But stepping down now he could sell it as something in the interest of the greater good ("Primero la Patria!")
Massa: he knows if he stays as Economy minister, he will have to bury his political ambitions to become president once and for all. So I ask myself why is not stepping down now and put the blame on god knows what (obviously something external, like the war in Ukraine, drought, Macri etc.)
CFK: Under no circumstances she will take over now, unless she is forced to do exactly that by Alberto. Taking over power in this situation will make her reelection later this year even more unlikely
Maximo: I think he knows the Peronists will lose later this year, and he might already be looking at 2027. He is fairly young, so time is on his side.
De Pedro: given his reluctance to make campaign speeches in the public, he probably see this as an opportunity to become president through the back door (if only for a few months).
Overall I think the Campora and Ks will have an interest that Alberto stays in Olivos until his mandate ends.
Not sure if you had seen this before posting...
And I concur with most of your sentiments, and I think he's more useful serving as the sacrificial lamb; everything wrong/bad can be his fault, whether it's now, whether it's further economic destruction, and (hopefully) when the Ks ultimately lose they can blame him too saying it was Alberto's fault.
I already saw it from the delusional Ks I keep as a friend on social media, he thinks this paves the path for Cristina's return, but I honestly don't think she's going to run because things are only going to get worse from here, the dollar went from $400 to $455 already in 5 days, and inflation is already being forecasted up because of this for April.
So his power ebbed away, and so did his moral authority with mis-steps from partying in Olivos during the pandemic to random unthinking outbursts. He may not have been a credit to the office of president, but he wasn't the worst.
I was thinking about this today, I really hope Fabiola leaves him for her sake. He threw her under the bus for nothing, nobody bought it and it just made him look like the asshole he is.
The man is proof that being a teacher doesn't make one smart. As for his tenure, I say we judge him with the metric he suggested:
"
Prefiero tener el 10% más de pobres y no 100 mil muertos en la Argentina."
Well Alberto, you managed to accomplish both, and some.
70% of kids now live in poverty, 40% of all Argentines, 10% live in indigence. He managed to reduce the minimum wage from $242.80/month the day Macri left office to $181.76/month today (remember, the president can raise the minimum wage via proclamation in Argentina, and he choses to let people get poorer). The dollar went from $69.50 to who knows, people are seriously talking about the elimination of the peso come December, and inflation went from 54% in 2019 to, at a minimum, 103% for this year.
This is his legacy, and while it could have been worse, the bar was pretty damn low considering we had presidents like Perons and the Junta that literally had people killed/disappeared.
