Alberto will not run for second term

[FrankPintor]

We can discuss Alberto's "inheritance" over good wine. But unlucky he was not: soybean prices dipped notably during Macri's tenure and recovered during Alberto's.

View attachment 8780

So the price per bushel rose from about $1000 during the previous government's tenure to around $1500 now, a rise of 50%. You seem to have left out any calculation of the impact of the La Niña - driven 3 year drought and the fall in the harvest:


which is also around 50%. You could claim that these two indices cancel each other out, but the lower harvest is caused by crop failure, so there are big losses associated with buying seed, planting and fertilizing for a crop planned to be 35% (at least) larger than is being harvested, so it's still a substantial net loss. How you try to deny an unprecedented 3-year drought with this effect is anything but bad luck is beyond me, I'm afraid. Even if it could be planned for (and maybe such events need to be taken into account in future planning), it would require multi-year preparation and saving before it actually happened. But I'm sure the next conservative Argentinian government will take care of that

 

[toongeorges]

Article for those interested

Is anyone surprised? He was going to lose his own party's primary, and his approval ratings make most world leaders look loved in contrast.

Arguably one of the most incompetent and ineffective leaders the country has had, but I will give him credit for at least indirectly admitting his tenure was a failure, even if his sycophants are framing it as anything but.

What's everyone else's thought?

How comes Alberto is a failure? Lo dijieron, lo hicieron

 

[Quilombo]

How comes Alberto is a failure? Lo dijieron, lo hicieron

Lol, reminds me of the old Cristina propaganda "acá también la nación creece". Slap those signs above villas if you want them to be accurate.

 

[NoSoyDeAqui]

So the price per bushel rose from about $1000 during the previous government's tenure to around $1500 now, a rise of 50%. You seem to have left out...

yeah Frank...is real easy: multiply the price from my post times the ouput in yours and you get the actual exports in usd...and fact is that 2022 was an all-time record of usd that entered the country from grain exports. Heck, even 2018 was worst by that measure that the current....
Conservative? oh no, the changes this country needs are truly revolutionary. I don't see unions, lobbies, etc letting go of their easy dough. But I would settle for reasonably competent and about-average honest administration.

 

[gracielle]

22 April 2023 by Rosario Ayerdi, Political Editor of Diario Perfil

Fernández withdraws candidacy, but doesn't plan to step aside

President Alberto Fernández, who will not seek a new mandate, is betting on the PASO primaries and will challenge the candidate put forth by Kirchnerism. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is still considering his options and is not yet ready to go public with his intentions.

batimes.com.ar

 

[SanTelmoForever]

yeah Frank...is real easy: multiply the price from my post times the ouput in yours and you get the actual exports in usd...and fact is that 2022 was an all-time record of usd that entered the country from grain exports. Heck, even 2018 was worst by that measure that the current....
Conservative? oh no, the changes this country needs are truly revolutionary. I don't see unions, lobbies, etc letting go of their easy dough. But I would settle for reasonably competent and about-average honest administration.

Récord: la cosecha de soja y maíz aportará más de USD 40.000 millones

 

[Alby]

Can anyone see a flaw in these maths and logic (assuming the country doesn’t disintegrate before election day)?

Cristina has a ceiling and a floor of 35%. She stands. Larreta is the JXC candidate. In the election she obtains 35%, Larreta 28%, Milei 27% and the minor parties 10% between them. Cristina and Larreta go through to the ballotage. Cristina will hold her 35%. She may get a few new votes from disaffected Peronists coming home after voting for Milei in the first round. How many Milei voters and minor party voters will turn out for Larreta instead of staying home on the day of the ballotage? Enough to bridge the gap?

 

[DK72]

yeah Frank...is real easy: multiply the price from my post times the ouput in yours and you get the actual exports in usd...and fact is that 2022 was an all-time record of usd that entered the country from grain exports. Heck, even 2018 was worst by that measure that the current....
Conservative? oh no, the changes this country needs are truly revolutionary. I don't see unions, lobbies, etc letting go of their easy dough. But I would settle for reasonably competent and about-average honest administration.

Since 1989, Peronists were in power for most part (all but 6 years). Of those, 16 years a Kirchner was either head of state or as vice. The obvious conclusion would be that clearly it is not working, that something needs to change. So how to explain it to the plebs? A number of external unfortunate events which - by a string of bad luck - affected Argentina.

Covid, never mind we had one of the toughest regimes with one of the worst outcome (not to speak of the Sputnik and the VIP vaccines). Drought. There was (or is) a really bad drought this year. But make it three then. And then of course there is the inflation, which has its cause in the war in Ukraine (funnily enough, it doesn’t seem to affect the other countries in the region). And then mix in a bit of debt from Macri, the FMI and a bit of lawfare. And if all is still not working, just say that X was not a real Peronist.

 

[Quilombo]

Can anyone see a flaw in these maths and logic (assuming the country doesn’t disintegrate before election day)?

Cristina has a ceiling and a floor of 35%. She stands. Larreta is the JXC candidate. In the election she obtains 35%, Larreta 28%, Milei 27% and the minor parties 10% between them. Cristina and Larreta go through to the ballotage. Cristina will hold her 35%. She may get a few new votes from disaffected Peronists coming home after voting for Milei in the first round. How many Milei voters and minor party voters will turn out for Larreta instead of staying home on the day of the ballotage? Enough to bridge the gap?

Cristina has a high floor and low ceiling, she's as polarizing as she is popular, and Milei's voters hate Cristina more than they like Milei, it doesn't come more political caste than the woman who was president, is VP, whose husband was president, son is a deputy, and sister in law is a governor.

To me, this is what's so funny about the dual messages from the Campora, "CFK 2023" and "Lawfare won't let her run". She can run, there's literally nothing stopping her, she hasn't even been sentenced yet, but she's smart and knows if she does run she will loose, and that makes it difficult to handover the keys to Maximo. The Ks setting things up for 2027 so when Massa or Scioli or de Pedro lose this year they can say "See! It has to be a biological K!"

Remember 2019? Cristina didn't run against Macri on the top of the ticket because her negative approval ratings convinced her and her team she would lose against a man as unpopular as him. Larreta, like him or not doesn't have Macri's negatives, and I'm convinced Milei's voters would support him in a heartbeat against the Queen herself.

 

[Alby]

I'm convinced Milei's voters would support him in a heartbeat against the Queen herself.

If they had to, i.e., if voting was compulsory. But it isn't. They can stay home on the day, rather than vote for the JXC caste member most vilified by Milei (and Milei has said he won't endorse anyone).

I think there a case to be made that in the event it were Larreta versus K, the result would be very close.

Polls of voting intention need to measure those who would actually go to the polls under a given ballotage scenario like the one we are discussing. I'm not sure they do that.