charlesfradley
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- Aug 17, 2023
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Why are Milei and Argentina obsessed by the US dollar?
Over the last year the Mexican Peso and the Brazilian Real have outperformed the US dollar. And inflation in Brazil has stabilized over the last couple of years at a few percent annually. Brazil has the largest GDP in Latin America.
Argentina's largest trading partner by far is Brazil 16.3% of all trade (more than with any other country), versus 6.62% for the USA,
There is a decent case for Argentina to adopt the Brazilian Real as currency, that would greatly facilitate trade between the two partners.
Indeed, there could be a case for the Mercosur countries to create a common currency, similar to the Euro in the EU. Perhaps for Brazil to adopt the Brazilian Real would be the first step.
Adopting the US dollar would be a dangerous step since it would put Argentina at the mercy of the US Reserve Bank system with no control over it at all.
Instead, adopting a new Mercosur currency would give Argentina some voice in Mercosur interest rates, and allow Argentina to dump the worthless Peso.
And there is a good possibility that a new Mercosur currency would be stronger than the US dollar.
P.S. the Brazilian Real is a widely traded and easily convertible currency, and Real denominated savings accounts offer some of the highest interest rates in the world, and is the only currency where interest rates on savings generates a positive return versus inflation. e.g. interest rates are about 12% versus inflation of about 5%.
Over the last year the Mexican Peso and the Brazilian Real have outperformed the US dollar. And inflation in Brazil has stabilized over the last couple of years at a few percent annually. Brazil has the largest GDP in Latin America.
Argentina's largest trading partner by far is Brazil 16.3% of all trade (more than with any other country), versus 6.62% for the USA,
There is a decent case for Argentina to adopt the Brazilian Real as currency, that would greatly facilitate trade between the two partners.
Indeed, there could be a case for the Mercosur countries to create a common currency, similar to the Euro in the EU. Perhaps for Brazil to adopt the Brazilian Real would be the first step.
Adopting the US dollar would be a dangerous step since it would put Argentina at the mercy of the US Reserve Bank system with no control over it at all.
Instead, adopting a new Mercosur currency would give Argentina some voice in Mercosur interest rates, and allow Argentina to dump the worthless Peso.
And there is a good possibility that a new Mercosur currency would be stronger than the US dollar.
P.S. the Brazilian Real is a widely traded and easily convertible currency, and Real denominated savings accounts offer some of the highest interest rates in the world, and is the only currency where interest rates on savings generates a positive return versus inflation. e.g. interest rates are about 12% versus inflation of about 5%.
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