First, anyone who thought Macri and his magic team were going to be able to come in and within a year, say, (and it's been what, 9 months?) and have low inflation and high employment in place, including wiping out all the things that the Ks did to impede such performance levels in the first place, is way off the mark. Macri's said it's going to be a long road. I've written about it previously that it won't be easy and it won't be fun and I can't see how it can be quick. Macri performed a miracle (so far) just by untangling the cepo and the futures issue and such. He's dealing with Cristina coming into town and stirring up trouble and continually igniting her Camporistas and others who would defend her and hear no evil spake about her. And so on.
Second, let's remember that democratic republics are not monarchies, at least in theory. The president of a democratic republic is not a king and cannot order more than his or power enables him or her, which is limited. Again, in theory and under usual circumstances. Cristina's "reign" had much more influence and fewer practical limits than Macri's time in office will have had simply because she was a populist leading people who want a populist leader, shown by a populist-dominated congress and Macri is the antithesis where too many think even a relatively free market is the devil's apple and Ragnarok all rolled up in one.
My point being that Macri has to deal with a congress in which he must wheedle and cajole for the most part, make deals with the other devils because they all have the majority, pretty much, for now. Even though the FpV may have lost some influence and some seats, I think the continued pressure Cristina's been able to manage through her appearances and riling the truly ignorant masses has managed to keep those losses to a minimum for the moment.
Macri has done quite a bit, considering the circumstances, and has had to cave in on some things Peronist simply because the country is Peronist and if Macri wants to get anything done at all, he must not kill everything, all at once. It was bad enough that he just let go free a lot of the subsidies, but I suspect that he didn't have much choice, or things would have gotten worse than they have with spending and inflation.
I haven't kept track of how much money he's spent propping up the peso, but I'm betting it doesn't compare to Cristina's spending in this area. He has influenced enough big companies to supposedly make plans and bring a lot of dollars into the country as investment, but we have to see how that turns out, if he can retain enough control over the direction the economy will take and keep the confidence of those investors. It's a serious juggling act. He managed to leverage a lot of the optimism among business folk here and internationally to do a much better job at managing the value of the peso without spending all of the nation's reserves on such propping.
Of course, as someone who earns in dollars, it's killing me month-by-month. But I don't count in the overall scheme of things here, I'm not the target of maintaining that higher value peso. If the value slips too low too fast, the inflation and other problems that will hit will cause further problems and things won't get better without serious adjustments downward. Which would benefit the pockets of people like me (though not my selection as foreign things disappeared from the shelves), but would be bad for Argentina.
And then, as the title of this thread goes, Macri has to deal with the general economic ignorance (not to mention desperation!) of the very people for whom he is trying to improve the economy. What do they tend to do when no one buys their product? Raise prices to compensate for the lowered earnings. What do they do when they see some inflation and are feeling desperate from the inherited economic conditions - and lowered sales? Raise prices in anticipation of worse inflation and lesser sales. What do both of these things tend to do? Cause higher prices and...inflation. And other ills.
But you can't successfully legislate what the people will do in this situation. You can try, but the market will what the market will, for the most part.
Something tells me that Macri would change a lot of things if he could just wave a wand and make it happen. He must have the most unenviable job imaginable, in my opinion. If he pulls Argentina out of its dangerous doldrums in spite of its people, he's a hero. If he doesn't succeed, I still see him as someone who gave it a pretty good shot, certainly an above-average individual who seems to me to give a shit.
