Big Heist in Argentina

[citygirl]

Pericles - there is in no way a 50% chance that the worldwide banking system will collapse in the next 6 months. I would say there is about a .005% chance of that happening. Re: Iran - unless you know something that most foreign policy advisors don't, I'd say that's not going to happen either.

It's also called Goldman, not Goldberg if you're referencing my figure. This is valid research done by analysts who spend their life researching foreign markets. Of course there are vested interests in Argentina crashing. There are equally vested interests in Argentina succeeding.

I will say that Christina's latest move has made both my company and myself seriously reconsider our expansion plans here in Argentina. We are back to looking seriously at Brazil where while the initial costs are higher, the political and economic situation seems much more stable.

I want Argentina to flourish. It is my home now. However I don't see a lot of forward thinking economic planning happening here. And sooner or later, the piper is going to have to be paid. It's happening all over the globe. I'm just not so sure Argentina has the ability to pay these days.

 

[perry]

Argentina has much better fundamentals than many other countries on the globe as well. If we consider that in 2002 just one year after the last crash Buenos Aires was blooming . I do not see that happening in many other countries who have based their economies on finance ie. iceland, ireland, and many others.

The worst and most contracted crashes in history happened in many developed societies .

They have to service a debt next year of 14 billion and they have currently 45 billion in the coffers and with more to come. How is it possible that they will crash ? I like some clear answers

 

[Davidglen77]

I am so tired of all of the negativity from the media about Argentina. While I expect the media to report true accurate facts, speculating about a country defaulting does nothing but create histerics and downward thinking. The US is getting a taste of it's own rotten medicine as all over the world the media is reporting about the US and it's imminent default / crash / burn scenario. Cristina Kirchner went to New York last month and told the financial freaks to look at their own economy before making judgments about other countries finances and she was right! I hope the first companies to fold are the newspapers.

 

[citygirl]

How is it possible that Argentina will default?

Well..let's see:
1) Over 50% of their tax revenue is based on export of commodities. That market is crashing and with it goes most of Argentina's revenue.
2) We're saddled with an inflation rate of close or over 30%
3) Argentina is shut out of the global borrowing markets after defaulting in 2001 on - what was it - 95 billion dollars in debt?
From Bloomberg:
`Last-Ditch Measure'
``The government is explicitly saying that it has problems meeting debt maturities and this is a last-ditch measure to do so,'' Salvucci said. ``For accounting purposes, this debt will no longer exist.''
Argentine bonds have lost 37 percent this year, putting them on pace for the worst year since the 2001 default, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. index. The bonds lost 62 percent that year.



Do I think the default will happen in '09? Nope. Do I think if the commodities market doesn't improve in '09 (and personally I don't think we'll see the world financial market settle down until '10 or '11) that Argentina is going to be in a world of hurt come 2010? Absolutely...

 

[Stanexpat]

Citygirl, sorry but I think there might be one or two people here that don't want to discuss anything regarding problems in Argentina. Press reports pointing out problems there are dismissed as sensationalism or as the media having some kind of grudge against goucho-land. They seem not to offer much in rebuttal or in support of their thinking. They seem to be in a state of denial or have other unstated agendas. I think people need to understand there is difference in criticising the government there (to much criticism of this corrupt and incompentent organization is not possible in my opinion) and people and country of Argentina.

 

[soulskier]

To be honest, I need to better educate myself on this subject, before I can comment. Stan, I hope to be back to you with something before long.

 

[citygirl]

Soulskier - there are some great articles on Bloomberg. And that's a pretty reputable financial news source. I highly recommend it.

 

[citygirl]

And I think I've stated my position pretty clearly over & over again. I have chosen to come to Argentina and make a life here. My firm is looking at launching a SA here. I am a firm believer in a lot of the great things that are possible. I'm probably one of the more pro-Argentina posters on here. But there are serious problems that need to be addressed and to pretend otherwise is crazy.

 

[igor]

...I think there might be one or two people here that don't want to discuss anything regarding problems in Argentina. Press reports pointing out problems there are dismissed as sensationalism or as the media having some kind of grudge against goucho-land. They seem not to offer much in rebuttal or in support of their thinking. They seem to be in a state of denial or have other unstated agendas.

Well, market related areas is a very well discussed topic. To an extent that if you have a particular opinion you can always find a bunch of market experts who support it. And probably it will make you feel more comfortable.

Sometimes I also feel that people here are finding strange pleasure in collecting snippets from the press that say negative things about Argentina. And often so called discussion is reduced to something like: Look what Bloomberg said this time (link).

And nobody should even dare to think differently (than the Great Bloomberg that is, not me ).

 

[citygirl]

Igor - I'd be thrilled to read some qualitative data that presents a different view point. If you or anyone has some, by all means, please post it. Yes, I rely on Bloomberg, NYTimes, BBC, analysts at investment banks, Ernst & Young, etc for my research. If there is an equally valid source (and by that I mean substantiated by data) that is drawing different conclusions - I would love to look at it.