Big Heist in Argentina

[allegra]

JG - The riots in BA happened on December 20, 2001. On that day de la Rua renounced a president. It was a frightening scene for many locals so I can imagine how it was perceived by foreigners. This is what happens when an angry mob resorts to violence and the peacekeeping forces are visibly "absent". Hopefully we will not see a repeat.

Davidglen77 - The statement that CFK made in NY is partially correct. We don't need a plan "B" because we don't have a plan "A". The media (Argentine and otherwise) may have their own agenda. It is the responsibility of the individual to be a discernible reader.

Pericles - The fundamentals exist but what we don't have is a sustainable long range economic and social plan. Without it Argentina cannot hope to move forward from its emerging status to that of developed nation.

In 2002, the only things I saw blooming were the flowers in the Botanical Gardens.

The comments made by Stanexpat and Citygirl propose a more credible scenario. I am not an "expat bashing Argentina". I am an Argentinian.

 

[perry]

All these supposedly reputable news sources like Bloomberg and others quoted here have never posted any warnings about the housing crash even though it has been all over the internet for many years. All media have their own agendas and it is important that you are are open to information from people who are unbiased.

One very famous Wall street journalist Mary O' Grady has never written one positive article on Argentina and has been predicting our demise since 2001. Remember that our government has rejected the IMF and other controls imposed by Far right Western governments. The IMf have made many errors in Argentina and did not even come close to predicting the economic collapse of 2001.

It is worth noting that the consensus view of Argentina’s economy has been widely off the mark for most
of the last decade. This can be seen in the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s projections during the
last recession, and then again in the recovery that followed. The IMF overestimated GDP growth for
2000, 2001, and 2002 by 2.3, 8.1, and 13.5 percentage points respectively, in its September World
Economic Outlook forecast prior to each year.8 After the debt default at the end of 2001, the consensus
view was that Argentina would suffer for years from lack of access to international financial markets and
foreign investment. The IMF projections for the four years, 2003 through 2006 then came in low by 7.8,
5.0, 5.2, and 4.3 percentage points respectively. These forecast errors are enormous for the seven years
noted, and among the largest consistent errors for the IMF in recent memory. Most economists and the
business press were similarly wrong about the Argentine economy throughout most of the current economic expansion.​

I suggest that you read this very in depth report below that will show you why Argentina will not default on its loan. It is well documented and is many pages long with corresponding information. This to me seems more credible.
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/argentina:-the-crisis-that-isn-t/

 

[soulskier]

This must be serious, I just got a facebook invitation for;

CAZEROLAZO EN TODO EL PAÍS
NO AL ROBO

El Gobierno decidió ponerle fin al sistema de jubilación privada....
NUEVAMENTE... ¡UNA MANIOBRA PARA QUEDARSE CON NUESTROS FONDOS!
¡NOS ROBAN!
NECESITAN DINERO PARA COMPRAR VOLUNTADES POLITICAS... tu dinero, mi dinero, nuestro dinero, el fruto de tantos años de trabajo!!!!

Date:
Friday, October 24, 2008
Time:
7:00pm - 10:00pm
Location:
Todo el país

Looks like our first pot banging session in Llao Llao!

 

[perry]

To our regular commentator Stanexpat who quotes the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal like the gospel truth .

Do you remember Judith Miller from the New York Times who wrote many articles in regards to Iraq having weapons of mass destruction. Do you also remember the Scandal Of Niger where Colin Powell lied to the world about Iraq purchases of chemicals from there. There were hundreds of articles at that time by Wall Street Journal, New York Times and 90 percent of all news media emphatically promoting the idea that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction.

5 Years later and with a bill to the world of trillions of dollars as well as over a million deaths and no weapons of mass destruction ever found we now should believe these same journalists when there track record has been appalling to say the least.

People are nieve unfortunately and do not want to think for themselves.

 

[sergio]

I have no idea whether or not Argentina will default. I am impressed, though, with the reasoned comments by Citigirl. She appears informed and objective, not an Argentina basher and not emotional. I find her contributions a real asset to the website.

 

[bigbadwolf]

The fundamentals exist but what we don't have is a sustainable long range economic and social plan. Without it Argentina cannot hope to move forward from its emerging status to that of developed nation.

That is correct, but such a plan -- to have any substance and credibility -- would need human and financial resources the country lacks. And it cannot become a developed nation not just because of inept politicians and a patron-client mentality (that incidentally bedevils all of Latin America), but also because there's no global capacity to absorb the products of another industrialised country. Argentina is stuck with exporting commodities and praying that commodity prices hold up. Many countries are in the same boat -- even Russia. In such circumstances, politicians are reduced to crossing their fingers and merely playing a day-to-day game of juggling and compromising. This is what the Kirchners have been doing.

 

[AliAlex]

Wendy, I think you are completely wrong on all your points. This move by the government there is just a simple theft of retirement savings by a totally corrupt and incompetent government. The pension funds in question since their inception since 1994 returned an average of over 13% to the savers. What they are going to get now is some government bonds that will be defaulted on in a year or two. What they will end up with at retirement nobody knows.

This severely undermines property rights as the following from the NYT states:

Argentina Nationalizes Billion in Private Pensions - Mergers, Acquisitions, Venture Capital, Hedge Funds -- DealBook - New York Times

Folks, this is what I do not get... Perhaps some scholar out there can explain this to me (I'm looking for facts, not just opinions ) : If the returns are so good, why has the state been forced to contribute with such a significant chunk towards the payment of the current retirements?

 

[Stanexpat]

To our regular commentator Stanexpat who quotes the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal like the gospel truth .

Do you remember Judith Miller from the New York Times who wrote many articles in regards to Iraq having weapons of mass destruction. Do you also remember the Scandal Of Niger where Colin Powell lied to the world about Iraq purchases of chemicals from there. There were hundreds of articles at that time by Wall Street Journal, New York Times and 90 percent of all news media emphatically promoting the idea that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction.

5 Years later and with a bill to the world of trillions of dollars as well as over a million deaths and no weapons of mass destruction ever found we now should believe these same journalists when there track record has been appalling to say the least.

People are nieve unfortunately and do not want to think for themselves.

Sure the media is not always right, but I don't see how the Iraq war has anything to do with this.

In a nut-shell the situation in Argentina is that the government has irresponsibly increased government spending in the last couple of years. Now tax revenues are falling. They have silly projects to fund like the high speed train and the nationalization of AA. The only way they can make the sums work is get more funds from somewhere. If they borrowed money in the financial markets they would have to pay 30% interest or more(Hugo won't help this time as he has money problems of his own). Therefor stealing the pension funds makes sense from their viewpoint. They have painted themselves into a corner. What being reported is that this move will defer the possibility of a default to a later date. But that it raises the possibility of an eventual default as the government does not appear to want to change course and adopt a responsible and sustainable economic policies. Even their current $50 billion in reserves will disappear in time.

What the savers are going to get are government bonds indexed to Indec inflation figures. With a few more years of inflation and doctored numbers these bonds won't be worth 25 cents on the dollar.

 

[Stanexpat]

All these supposedly reputable news sources like Bloomberg and others quoted here have never posted any warnings about the housing crash even though it has been all over the internet for many years. All media have their own agendas and it is important that you are are open to information from people who are unbiased.

One very famous Wall street journalist Mary O' Grady has never written one positive article on Argentina and has been predicting our demise since 2001. Remember that our government has rejected the IMF and other controls imposed by Far right Western governments. The IMf have made many errors in Argentina and did not even come close to predicting the economic collapse of 2001.

It is worth noting that the consensus view of Argentina’s economy has been widely off the mark for most
of the last decade. This can be seen in the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s projections during the
last recession, and then again in the recovery that followed. The IMF overestimated GDP growth for
2000, 2001, and 2002 by 2.3, 8.1, and 13.5 percentage points respectively, in its September World
Economic Outlook forecast prior to each year.8 After the debt default at the end of 2001, the consensus
view was that Argentina would suffer for years from lack of access to international financial markets and
foreign investment. The IMF projections for the four years, 2003 through 2006 then came in low by 7.8,
5.0, 5.2, and 4.3 percentage points respectively. These forecast errors are enormous for the seven years
noted, and among the largest consistent errors for the IMF in recent memory. Most economists and the
business press were similarly wrong about the Argentine economy throughout most of the current economic expansion.​

I suggest that you read this very in depth report below that will show you why Argentina will not default on its loan. It is well documented and is many pages long with corresponding information. This to me seems more credible.
CEPR - Argentina: The Crisis That Isn't

Good, at least you can cite at least one source that supports your view. However I wonder if they would write the same report today. In the report they state they should be able to borrow in the market and with Hugo to make the shortfall, nor does the report seem to reflect the sharp drop in commodity prices with the resulting fall in tax revenues that have occurred. My guess if they wrote the report today it might read quite a bit differently.

I am always curious why you expend so much energy in support of this government. I think my negative views of this government are well founded and are supported by probably 90%-95% of the expats I know and who participate in this forum. Perhaps you could explain yourself and make your views more understandable.

By the way there is another good article in the Washington Post on the situation, linked below.

Argentine pension plan could postpone default - washingtonpost.com

 

[perry]

Quote Stanexpat

I am always curious why you expend so much energy in support of this government. I think my negative views of this government are well founded and are supported by probably 90%-95% of the expats I know and who participate in this forum. Perhaps you could explain yourself and make your views more understandable.

I happen to believe in Argentina and its future and that is clear. I do not categorically support the government on all isssues and that is known if you have read my 200 posts.

What I do not understand is why someone who does not live in Argentina like yourself Stanexpat spends so much energy on this forum dissing the country and its future. To me this is the question as I have passion but what is your motivation?