Blue dollar in freefall - why?

[on the brink]

A lower dollar may be bad news for expats but is good for the country, as it makes exports more competitive.

 

[jblaze5779]

I'm just hoping the falling dollar brings back some imports.... some real cheese would be nice. The import section is just a bunch of random, dusty cans of malt beers from Bangladesh.

 

[jblaze5779]

How come the IMF is the eternal enemy but Argentina continues to return to them for bail outs?

 

[gracielle]

How come the IMF is the eternal enemy but Argentina continues to return to them for bail outs?

I personally do not regard the IMF as the enemy of this country. ARG joined the IMF on September 20, 1956 and has since participated in 21 IMF arrangements. In my opinion, the "enemy" have been primarily the assemblages of politicians which the ARG voters have chosen to elect since that time. They have continued to make the same erroneous economic decisions time and time again. And so they must return to the IMF for last-ditch attempts at bailouts when all other doors have been shut in their faces.

 

[Ceviche]

I was equally happy living in BA in Macri's time when there was no blue dollar and I was using credit cards everywhere.

 

[Redpossum]

I noticed foreigners ( on here and elsewhere too) are not liking the correction versus dollar. They can't wait for the peso to fall again. Its a very poor approach. They are thinking of how their rent is becoming cheaper, without realizing, falling pesos will eventually F*&k everyone - first the poor ; then the rich, and then the tourists with USD.

Ceviche, please. Let's not start acting like US social media here on BAExpats.

What we like or don't like has no effect on reality. What we like or don't like has no effect on the exchange rate. Please don't try to shame us for enjoying those things which favor us economically, as we bemoan those things which operate to our disfavor.

 

[Rich One]

Two weeks ago, the government raided several cuevas here downtown. I posted the video. Now they're manipulating ferociously to get the Blue down as far as they can. Why? Because they are about to start another round of negotiations with the IMF.

In my opinion, the demand is being fiercely suppressed by temporary measures that cannot last. I expect it to shoot right back up again before the end of the year.

How low can it go Before avid investors consider it's cheap enough and start buying. Friendly hands are cooperating with the government to lower the Blue but no one is willing to be crucified for the cause. Can it go below the CCL ? or the Solidario..? don't think so.. !

 

[UK Man]

Two weeks ago, the government raided several cuevas here downtown. I posted the video. Now they're manipulating ferociously to get the Blue down as far as they can. Why? Because they are about to start another round of negotiations with the IMF.

In my opinion, the demand is being fiercely suppressed by temporary measures that cannot last. I expect it to shoot right back up again before the end of the year.

Yes. In other words, the same old story in basket case land.

 

[antipodean]

How low can it go Before avid investors consider it's cheap enough and start buying. Friendly hands are cooperating with the government to lower the Blue but no one is willing to be crucified for the cause. Can it go below the CCL ? or the Solidario..? don't think so.. !

Investment in Argentina has more to do with confidence than FX rates unless you have a stomach of steel, a niche, an offshore structure or are in it for the long term and open to “sell” or “cash out” at an unpredictable and undefined moment in the future when / if a window opens to do so.

At the moment investors are in flight mode as no one has any confidence in this government or it’s ability to get out of this mess. They were enticed by previous governments, disappointed by the last and destroyed by the current - even if there is a change in government next time, most investors will be holding out to see actual changes rather than just words and slogans about change, meaning a long road to recovery.

Meanwhile this government resists and begrudges change at all costs instead seeking more debt financing to keep kicking the can down the road and buy some electoral time - hardly a path towards stability or sustainability as sooner or later someone needs to get paid and we have the next chapter in the perpetual crisis that is Argentina.

As all of us who have some time here know, the brechas are here one day and gone the next. Buying things in pesos is all about seizing a momentary opportunity in time. Argentina goes from cheap to expensive overnight and back to cheap again but in the long run costs kind of balance themselves out. It’s a rollercoaster, plain and simple.

I suspect the minute the new dollar bond holders see signs that the government will need to wiggle its way out of paying in full in 2022 (I think that’s when they are due) or the BRCA looses even more liquidity and tightens capital controls yet again, then the brecha will shoot back up again.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

How come the IMF is the eternal enemy but Argentina continues to return to them for bail outs?

Forgive my allusion to the "B" word but I think it is a bit like the relationship between the UK and the EU