Blue Dollar - Over

[khairyexpat]

One thing I always wondered about is: How much percentage do cuevas and tourists have compared to International Markets & Multinationals Trades and all big Financial Institutions? Outside of Argentina they are NOT under Argentine Gov. jurisdiction. They all trade legally and have nothing to do with Argentine official rate.

It must be a small fraction.
Fighting cuevas and tourists would be an insignificant effort, no?

How much influence do cuevas & tourists have on the rate of DollarBlue, compared to heavy weight financial institutions & multinationals :
0.1% .. 1% .. 10% .. 20% .. 50% .. 75% .. ?

 

[thorsten]

Fighting cuevas and tourists would be an insignificant effort, no?

Yes, but that's not a reason for the government not to seek a fight... Its similar to the law that requires tourists to buy tours in US$ - making and enforcing the law probably costs more than what is gained.

 

[AmigoArtistico]

One thing I always wondered about is: How much percentage do cuevas and tourists have compared to International Markets & Multinationals Trades and all big Financial Institutions? Outside of Argentina they are NOT under Argentine Gov. jurisdiction. They all trade legally and have nothing to do with Argentine official rate.

It must be a small fraction.
Fighting cuevas and tourists would be an insignificant effort, no?

How much influence do cuevas & tourists have on the rate of DollarBlue, compared to heavy weight financial institutions & multinationals :
0.1% .. 1% .. 10% .. 20% .. 50% .. 75% .. ?

It's not so simple.

It's not just the blue that the government has to fight. The blue is loosely tied to the larger "dolar bolsa" which includes the "contado con liqui" and several other forms of peso/dollar arbitrage (which are legal). (You don't think XOOM is paying 11.22 today just because they're great guys, do you?)

And the government has found it increasingly expensive to fight the "dolar bolsa."

It's pretty tough to do when the writing's on the wall.

 

[khairyexpat]

It's not so simple.

It's not just the blue that the government has to fight. The blue is loosely tied to the larger "dolar bolsa" which includes the "contado con liqui" and several other forms of peso/dollar arbitrage (which are legal). (You don't think XOOM is paying 11.22 today just because they're great guys, do you?)

And the government has found it increasingly expensive to fight the "dolar bolsa."

It's pretty tough to do when the writing's on the wall.

E x a c t l y .... what I'm wondering.

Government fighting cuevas & tourists (the blue) must be useless & insignificant. NO?

The real fight is with (the heavy weight int'l traders & stock markets) i.e. "dolar bolsa" which includes the "contado con liqui".

I outlined how XOOM could operate legally ... http://baexpats.org/...l__+xoom +legal

 

[Rich One]

One thing I always wondered about is: How much percentage do cuevas and tourists have compared to International Markets & Multinationals Trades and all big Financial Institutions? Outside of Argentina they are NOT under Argentine Gov. jurisdiction. They all trade legally and have nothing to do with Argentine official rate.

It must be a small fraction.
Fighting cuevas and tourists would be an insignificant effort, no?

How much influence do cuevas & tourists have on the rate of DollarBlue, compared to heavy weight financial institutions & multinationals :
0.1% .. 1% .. 10% .. 20% .. 50% .. 75% .. ?

You don't mention the impact of the Argentinian financial groups and speculators, that have undeclared pesos coming from illegal activities and other forms of graft. Cuevas and tourists trades amount to perhaps 10 % if that much.

 

[khairyexpat]

You don't mention the impact of the Argentinian financial groups and speculators, that have undeclared pesos coming from illegal activities and other forms of graft. Cuevas and tourists trades amount to perhaps 10 % if that much.

Exactly ... my suspected rough guess .... cuevas & tourists ... 10% .... if that much.

Every one else .. the rest of the world ... (other than cuevas & tourists) is much much more influential with more sheer power of their weight.

They're the one's who move the markets. (not cuevas & tourists).

 

[AmigoArtistico]

...Government fighting cuevas & tourists (the blue) must be useless & insignificant. NO?

It's not useless and insignificant, because the blue is the only way that many people here have access to dollars, and because, unlike the "dolar bolsa," the blue market, with its cuevas and arbolitos, is very easy for the average person to understand.

The "dolar blue" is the public face of the disparity between the price of the "official dollar" and the real market value of the peso (or an approximation of it).

But, of course, just because the government wants to control it, doesn't mean that they can, except for short durations, as we've seen time and again.

 

[khairyexpat]

It's not useless and insignificant, because the blue is the only way that many people here have access to dollars, and because, unlike the "dolar bolsa," the blue market, with its cuevas and arbolitos, is very easy for the average person to understand.

The "dolar blue" is the public face of the disparity between the price of the "official dollar" and the real market value of the peso (or an approximation of it).

But, of course, just because the government wants to control it, doesn't mean that they can, except for short durations, as we've seen time and again.

10% .. if that much .... is insignificant.

90% of the market is where the real battle should be. NO?

 

[AmigoArtistico]

10% .. if that much .... is insignificant.

90% of the market is where the real battle should be. NO?

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear.

The blue is not important because of the percent of dollars it represents. It's important because it's the way the people here communicate about the decline of the peso. And in this respect, it's NOT insignificant; it's extremely significant.

If you need proof of that, just search for "dolar blue" in all the newspapers and count the number of hits you get.

If you're trying to suggest that the blue should be easy to kill because it's only 10% of the currency exchange (which, by the way, is just a number pulled out of a hat): You can't kill the blue without killing the dolar bolsa, which is virtually impossible.

 

[khairyexpat]

Sorry, I guess I wasn't clear.

The blue is not important because of the percent of dollars it represents. It's important because it's the way the people here communicate about the decline of the peso. And in this respect, it's NOT insignificant; it's extremely significant.

If you need proof of that, just search for "dolar blue" in all the newspapers and count the number of hits you get.

If you're trying to suggest that the blue should be easy to kill because it's only 10% of the currency exchange (which, by the way, is just a number pulled out of a hat): You can't kill the blue without killing the dolar bolsa, which is virtually impossible.

You putting the opposite words in my mouth.

I'm saying fighting only 10% of the market is an insignificant effort (means it can NOT kill the blue).
If all cuevas were shut down, it will have an insignificant effect on the blue.

There is still 90% of the markets out of control of Argentina.
That is the real battle if Argentina is to kill the blue.
Argentina has little economic clout to influence int'l markets & trade.

Wouldn't you agree?