Blue up

[brandon]

What do people here buy when blue jumps up like today?
Seems most big purchases are already tied to usd, so no advantage.
What arbitrage still exists?
Chimichurri by the liter?

 

[Redpossum]

Mercados alterados: la cotización del dólar blue ronda los $ 280 antes de que asuma Silvina Batakis

Argentina enfrenta horas de incertidumbre en los mercados locales. La divisa estadounidense superó los $ 280 y luego retrocedió, mientras que el dólar cripto llegó a $ 300 en algunos casos.

www.perfil.com

CCL is showing 282.225 right now. This is what I call losing control of your currency.

 

[Quilombo]

Seems most big purchases are already tied to usd, so no advantage.

If you can get your hands on said purchases that is, there were lines as home appliance stores to buy things this morning as people knew costs were only going in one direction, and a friend of mine who was in the middle of helping his gf build her PC saw prices go up 15% from Sunday to this evening. My husband had been nagging me to buy a washing machine but I told him to wait following last week's rise and now I don't think I could get the model we wanted even if we tried.

One thing to keep in mind is that once the WU dollar catches up with the CCL it will be a great time to buy anything priced in USD abroad/online, or booking vacations. The Dolar Tarjeta is $216.97 while the CCL is $282.42 which adds up if you do what's called puré. Here's an example:

An item on Amazon is $500 USD after tax. This totals $108,485 ARS when paying by debit/credit. To cover this in pesos, you only need to send yourself $384.13 USD via WU. That's almost 25% off thanks to the brilliant minds at the Palacio de Hacienda.

So I ask, pass the mashed potatoes will you?

 

[jblaze5779]

Like said above the real value is when there's a huge gap and you use your Arg card to buy things outside of the country. Ironically this is one of the main things the gov is trying to address yet they just make it worse.

I don't know.

 

[Redpossum]

Insólito informe de Emmanuel Álvarez Agis | Jugando con fuego con el dólar blue

“Descartando que ya <b>ingresamos en una crisis financiera de incierta resolución,</b> acercamos un análisis de la variable más importante de todas, el dólar (en sus dos valores), a lo largo de nuestra turbulenta historia. Cada uno de nuestros clientes...

www-pagina12-com-ar.translate.goog

Same as usual, banner is in Castellano, if you click on it the story will at first appear in Castellano, and than change to English in a few seconds.

This is the part that made me bite my tongue -

The consultant's analysis shows the price of the dollar during different moments of shock in the past, all at June 2022 prices, where inflation is taken into account. That document indicates that the blue dollar at 239 last Friday should climb to 351 to match the peak it had in October 2020, the maximum of Alberto Fernández's management, at which time it touched 195 pesos.

351 is...I don't even have a word. I think a better translation would be "would have to climb to" rather than "should climb to". Such are the limitations of machine translation. And if you read carefully, he's not saying it will necessarily climb to that level. But still, even seeing such a figure mentioned is sobering. Alberto can bend over and kiss his ass goodbye as far as next year's election if that happens.

 

[Rich One]

If you can get your hands on said purchases that is, there were lines as home appliance stores to buy things this morning as people knew costs were only going in one direction, and a friend of mine who was in the middle of helping his gf build her PC saw prices go up 15% from Sunday to this evening. My husband had been nagging me to buy a washing machine but I told him to wait following last week's rise and now I don't think I could get the model we wanted even if we tried.

One thing to keep in mind is that once the WU dollar catches up with the CCL it will be a great time to buy anything priced in USD abroad/online, or booking vacations. The Dolar Tarjeta is $216.97 while the CCL is $282.42 which adds up if you do what's called puré. Here's an example:

An item on Amazon is $500 USD after tax. This totals $108,485 ARS when paying by debit/credit. To cover this in pesos, you only need to send yourself $384.13 USD via WU. That's almost 25% off thanks to the brilliant minds at the Palacio de Hacienda.

So I ask, pass the mashed potatoes will you?

A question..? perhaps answered before . The distributors of home appliances , notebooks, or cell phones such as Fravega, Import components using the official dollar plus taxes , etc. The Blue dollar value is not used for these imports? nor the MEP or CCL? Please comment..?

 

[Quilombo]

A question..? perhaps answered before . The distributors of home appliances , notebooks, or cell phones such as Fravega, Import components using the official dollar plus taxes , etc. The Blue dollar value is not used for these imports? nor the MEP or CCL? Please comment..?

So there's kind of two answers for this question:

For fully imported goods, i.e. ones that aren't "Industria Argentina - Tierra del Fuego" (which use a combo of imported parts and are just assembled here), distributors pay the official exchange rate plus taxes/duties. As you said, they don't use the Blue/MEP/CCL which confuses some as to why prices go up when the Blue/MEP/CCL go up.

The reason imports appear to move in tandem with the Blue/MEP/CCL is because these are proxies for broader economic issues and restrictions in the macro economy. For example, there are now increased restrictions (started last week before Guzman left) for the import regime AFIP/Aduana uses. What they are doing now is enforcing 180 day terms for payment on authorized imports instead of 90 which forces companies/distributors to seek financing with their suppliers. This of course puts upward pressure on prices and results in companies having to hedge since as the brecha widens often indicating future problems with the dollar and imports.

So, long story short, while the imports are made using the BCRA exchange rate, spikes in the Blue/MEP/CCL are often driven by further cepos, which themselves impact the ability of companies to access the BCRA exchange rate, which motivates the increases, and why people were lining up at Fravega on Sunday/yesterday.

 

[Rich One]

So there's kind of two answers for this question:

For fully imported goods, i.e. ones that aren't "Industria Argentina - Tierra del Fuego" (which use a combo of imported parts and are just assembled here), distributors pay the official exchange rate plus taxes/duties. As you said, they don't use the Blue/MEP/CCL which confuses some as to why prices go up when the Blue/MEP/CCL go up.

The reason imports appear to move in tandem with the Blue/MEP/CCL is because these are proxies for broader economic issues and restrictions in the macro economy. For example, there are now increased restrictions (started last week before Guzman left) for the import regime AFIP/Aduana uses. What they are doing now is enforcing 180 day terms for payment on authorized imports instead of 90 which forces companies/distributors to seek financing with their suppliers. This of course puts upward pressure on prices and results in companies having to hedge since as the brecha widens often indicating future problems with the dollar and imports.

So, long story short, while the imports are made using the BCRA exchange rate, spikes in the Blue/MEP/CCL are often driven by further cepos, which themselves impact the ability of companies to access the BCRA exchange rate, which motivates the increases, and why people were lining up at Fravega on Sunday/yesterday.

I understand why consumers assume that a spike of the Blue will bring price increases. However distributors increase prices as you mention "Por si acaso" to be covered for eventual cepos and other import restrictions by the BCRA..!

 

[Preston]

If you can get your hands on said purchases that is, there were lines as home appliance stores to buy things this morning as people knew costs were only going in one direction, and a friend of mine who was in the middle of helping his gf build her PC saw prices go up 15% from Sunday to this evening. My husband had been nagging me to buy a washing machine but I told him to wait following last week's rise and now I don't think I could get the model we wanted even if we tried.

One thing to keep in mind is that once the WU dollar catches up with the CCL it will be a great time to buy anything priced in USD abroad/online, or booking vacations. The Dolar Tarjeta is $216.97 while the CCL is $282.42 which adds up if you do what's called puré. Here's an example:

An item on Amazon is $500 USD after tax. This totals $108,485 ARS when paying by debit/credit. To cover this in pesos, you only need to send yourself $384.13 USD via WU. That's almost 25% off thanks to the brilliant minds at the Palacio de Hacienda.

So I ask, pass the mashed potatoes will you?

Trying to understand this better. The example of buying on Amazon, this is if you were living in the US or Argentina, or either? Thanks!

 

[Quilombo]

Trying to understand this better. The example of buying on Amazon, this is if you were living in the US or Argentina, or either? Thanks!

This is with an Argentine issued debit or credit card making a transaction anywhere in foreign currency.

I remember during the height of the pandemic some members were doing this, paying their US/UK/etc. bills with their Argie cards during the lockdowns because it was so much cheaper due to the gap in dolar tarjeta and blue. When the brecha is so large like it is now, makes financial sense to "make puré" as it's called in Spanish.

"Puré" is most common here when people with dollars who don't need their $200 monthly cuota buy them via home banking and sell them to a cave or friends/family, but if you have dollars abroad, you can also take advantage of this by selling CCL stocks or transfering money to yourself/Argentine family via WU.