Bolsonaro potential new president of Brazil serious implications

[perry]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.06cbf9422015

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...878f96be19b_story.html?utm_term=.9e8ca2ef5fb0

How can Brazil lurch from the left to the extreme right so quickly ? Brazil commentators please explain what is happening here . The election of Bolsonaro has extreme implications for Argentina due to the military strength of Brazil . the possible invasion of Venezuela with Brazils support ( impossible under a left wing government) and other issues . .

To be frank I have found the rise of this canditate to now the possible winner of Brazils election very suprising as Brazil has always been centre left and with his very controversial views regarding race. woman , and gay people I did not believe he would have a chance but now its likely he will be Brazils next president .

I like to hear other views on this very important development.

 

[sts7049]

if Trump taught us anything, it is to not underestimate how prevalent right wing views may be amongst the voting population. you had a whole sector of the US fed up with Obama and democratic politics, and Trump was the result. i don't know anything about politics in Brazil, but i presume the same swing could happen for that same reason.

 

[jantango]

 

[enriquetta]

Shameless proud-daughter promotion here, this article, by my mom, (in English) explains the rise of him especially among the periphery neighbourhoods:

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/10/brazil-election-bolsonaro-corruption-security-pt

You can read for yourself, but I would add that public security is the issue deciding this elections. With something like 64.000 murders in 2017, everyone is afraid, and they are right to be afraid. But the tragedy now is a guy like Bolsonaro be painted like the ONLY option. In my opinion he will only increase violence levels with some of the policies he has promised (giving population the right to bear guns) and his speech full of violence and hate, which him being the president will legitimise other people to manifest such opinions.

The anti-PT feeling is real and has a lot of people "run" to Bolsonaro as an alternative to guarantee Haddad would not win. Its very paradoxical that the two candidates making to the second turn will be the ones with the highest rejection rate. I think it is a shame other good candidates (no perfect ones, but with very good and more moderated proposals) were not seen as alternative. A lot of people that would vote for Haddad are now turning to Ciro Gomes cause he could win against Bolsonaro in the second turn, but the elections are tomorrow so yeah. Little hope to change the two more likely scenarios 1) Bolsonaro vs Haddad in the 2nd turn 2) (less likely but who knows) Bolsonaro winning in the first turn tomorrow (FEAR).

In the end it is also a failure of the left, this intellectualised left that failed to have a speech that reaches the periphery and a victory of Bolsonaro in channelizing and getting appropriated with this feeling of indignation, and manipulating it. People vote with their feelings, not rationally, and they are afraid.

ps. Glenn Greenwald is great, thanks for posting the video.

 

[enriquetta]

If you read Spanish, then you probably almost can read Portuguese, and then you can probably grasp a bit of this article, which also helps understand the Brazilian elections of 2018: about fake news in WhatsApp, in groups to discuss politics.

https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-45666742

 

[HenryNisental]

Who says that allowing honest citizens to carry will increase the murder rate?
If we use the good old USA as a guide, after the liberalization of CCW permits the murder rate went down 50 % or more, in EVERY STATE that allowed it.
Pls read MORE GUNS, LESS CRIME of John Lott, or my own book LA PORTACION OCULTA, published in ML.
If do not want to buy it, send me your email and I will send you a free copy.

 

[camberiu]

1) It is unlikely that Brazil would turn into a dictatorship from either the left or the right. Unlike Venezuela or even Argentina, Brazil has much stronger and more independent institutions, like the judiciary and the Congress. If it was up to Lula and Dilma, they would have followed the Chavez model of government when they were ruling the country. They did not because the institutions and laws would not let them. Today, the actual power of a Brazilian president is very limited.
Which brings us to Bolsonaro. He might have the votes to be elected, but he lacks legislative support to rule. His party is minuscule and none of the traditional politicians (who have legislative base) wanted to be his vice-president. If elected, he will be a lame duck president (as far as Congress is concerned) from the get go. And he needs Congress to approve budgets and to execute policies in general.

2) Could Bolsonaro pull off a coup? Unlikely. The top military brass DETESTS him. He was a low level officer (Captain) who was booted from the army for insubordination. The current military leadership wants nothing to do with politics and they are very open and public about it. Without the Military and the support of the mainstream politicians, he cannot ever hope to pull off a coup.

3) He is popular because he is an outsider, a fringe politician. After 14 years of PT (left wing) rule, with the biggest corruption scandal in the country's history and with most mainstream politicians somewhat implicated, people wanted something different. They found him.

 

[perry]

1) It is unlikely that Brazil would turn into a dictatorship from either the left or the right. Unlike Venezuela or even Argentina, Brazil has much stronger and more independent institutions, like the judiciary and the Congress. If it was up to Lula and Dilma, they would have followed the Chavez model of government when they were ruling the country. They did not because the institutions and laws would not let them. Today, the actual power of a Brazilian president is very limited.
Which brings us to Bolsonaro. He might have the votes to be elected, but he lacks legislative support to rule. His party is minuscule and none of the traditional politicians (who have legislative base) wanted to be his vice-president. If elected, he will be a lame duck president (as far as Congress is concerned) from the get go. And he needs Congress to approve budgets and to execute policies in general.

2) Could Bolsonaro pull off a coup? Unlikely. The top military brass DETESTS him. He was a low level officer (Captain) who was booted from the army for insubordination. The current military leadership wants nothing to do with politics and they are very open and public about it. Without the Military and the support of the mainstream politicians, he cannot ever hope to pull off a coup.

3) He is popular because he is an outsider, a fringe politician. After 14 years of PT (left wing) rule, with the biggest corruption scandal in the country's history and with most mainstream politicians somewhat implicated, people wanted something different. They found him.

It seems that the american military establishment supports the election of Bolsonaro and needs his support in a possible military offensive against Venezuela . This scenario is now more likely due to comments by Trump and his cabinet of late and with petroleum at US$ 80 per barrel its oportune timing for them .

What you have not mentioned in depth why is he so popular with the people of Brazil ? I like most people are very suprised that Brazilian society could elect such an extreme canditate as their president

 

[charlewar]

The rhetoric here on this candidate sounds similar to the anti-Trump venom spewed by msm and libtard buffoons in 2016 (and still today) that Trump would cause the end of the world, stock market collapse and disaster is general. Not only did those allegations prove childish and wrong but quite the opposite has occurred in the United States. Seems critics not only were wrong but have shown themselves as spoiled children who throw temper tantrums when they don't get their way.
#LockHerUp

 

[camberiu]

It seems that the american military establishment supports the election of Bolsonaro and needs his support in a possible military offensive against Venezuela . This scenario is now more likely due to comments by Trump and his cabinet of late and with petroleum at US$ 80 per barrel its oportune timing for them .

What you have not mentioned in depth why is he so popular with the people of Brazil ? I like most people are very suprised that Brazilian society could elect such an extreme canditate as their president

I have never heard that the US military was backing him. If it is, that will GUARANTEE that he will be considered persona non-grata by the Brazilian Military, who absolutely dreads the idea of any US interference on Brazilian and South American politics. If the the US is behind him (i doubt it) then we might indeed have a coup. But the coup will be of the Brazilian military against him.

I have already explained why he is so popular: He is an outsider of the mainstream political establishment. The establishment that been tained by corruption. Many top figures from all major parties (Left and Right) have been indicted or even arrested, including Lula himself. People are tired of the status quo, tired of the establishment. So this guy, a complete outsider from a fringe political group and a tiny party all of a sudden is viewed as an alternative. That is why.