Brazil opens no visas for Americans

[sergio]

Which is precisely why they haven’t.
And never mind tourism, business as well would suffer and greatly so.
France and Germany and the UK are not going to go down that route for the sake of Croatia and Bulgaria, important as both they and the principle at hand may be.

How can there be equal reciprocity? Few US citizens choose to overstay their visas or live illegally outside the US buit millions of people from different countries settle in the US without legal status.

 

[ben]

How can there be equal reciprocity? Few US citizens choose to overstay their visas or live illegally outside the US buit millions of people from different countries settle in the US without legal status.

“From different countries” is an overly broad concept. Not all countries are the same. That is why the VWP includes the countries it does - and exactly the reason why the relevant EU countries have not been admitted.
The main requirements for a country being in the Visa Waiver Program are their visa rejection rate - under 3% - and overstay statistics. Bulgaria and Romania still have a double-digit rejection rate.

Once those rates has gone down, then the EU will be forced to turn up the heat by threatening to require visas for US citizens. But a) that is a long ways off, b) if and when that happens, the US would conceivably have no interest in not admitting the relevant countries to the VWP.

For an interesting read, here is the 2002 rule which removed Argentina from the VWP. A lost of fascinating details - the two which I found hilarious were 1) that scores of Argentines apparently stated openly and clearly at the border that they would be staying and working in the US; 2) that apparently thousands of Argentines entered the US under the VWP, only to make a beeline for Canada and seek asylum there.

Also, Chile lifted its reciprocity fee for US citizens only after Chile was admitted to the VWP in 2014.

 

[bigbadwolf]

Once those rates has gone down, then the EU will be forced to turn up the heat by threatening to require visas for US citizens. But a) that is a long ways off, b) if and when that happens, the US would conceivably have no interest in not admitting the relevant countries to the VWP.

The EU won't need to: once the rates are down to whatever the target figure is (3%, 4%?), the US will put them on the visa waiver list. And the US won't be coerced into doing so: any such attempt will backfire.

On a different note, as transatlantic relations continue to deteriorate inexorably between the US and Europe, and as the US adopts a more fortress-like mentality, I wouldn't be surprised if both the EU and the US impose visa requirements on each other's citizens in the near or mid-term future. The post-WW2 period of easy and cordial relations between the US and Europe is vanishing.

 

[sergio]

The EU won't need to: once the rates are down to whatever the target figure is (3%, 4%?), the US will put them on the visa waiver list. And the US won't be coerced into doing so: any such attempt will backfire.

On a different note, as transatlantic relations continue to deteriorate inexorably between the US and Europe, and as the US adopts a more fortress-like mentality, I wouldn't be surprised if both the EU and the US impose visa requirements on each other's citizens in the near or mid-term future. The post-WW2 period of easy and cordial relations between the US and Europe is vanishing.

Certainly deteriorating under Trump but tourism remains very important for Europe so I don't think they will make it very difficult for US citizens to enter.

 

[Pierre Smith]

The EU won't need to: once the rates are down to whatever the target figure is (3%, 4%?), the US will put them on the visa waiver list. And the US won't be coerced into doing so: any such attempt will backfire.

No kidding. I'd wager there's essentially nothing that the Europeans could do to convince the US to grant visa waiver status to Romania, Bulgaria, etc. Obviously, the EU people have to raise the subject for their own internal political reasons, but the idea that Europe would retaliate against the US and impose a visa requirement for Americans to visit France or Italy because of longstanding US policy not to grant preferential privileges to the deadbeat countries? Yeah right. If the idea was ever seriously raised, you could expect it to be unanimously rejected by the political establishments of the tourist countries.

 

[bigbadwolf]

... but the idea that Europe would retaliate against the US and impose a visa requirement for Americans to visit France or Italy because of longstanding US policy not to grant preferential privileges to the deadbeat countries? Yeah right. If the idea was ever seriously raised, you could expect it to be unanimously rejected by the political establishments of the tourist countries.

Right: there are two (or more) Europes. The first is the affluent northwest bloc (Germany, France, Benelux, Austria, Sweden, Denmark). The other is composed of the deadbeats. Maybe the third is the countries somewhere on the spectrum between the first and second -- Greece, Spain, Portugal, the Visegrad Group. And "unity" only goes so far.