Budget 2015: Prediction Is Not So Easy...

[thorsten]

http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/169839/capitanich-kicillof-present-2015-budget-in-lower-house

To create a budget one needs to make assumptions about the key economic indicators and obviously those can turn out to be not accurate, but how can anyone take a government serious that uses the following figures for next year:

• GDP: +2.8% - most economists would argue that Argentina could be happy if they don't go into recession next year
• Inflation: 15.6% - this means we can have max. 1.2% inflation per month; each month this year so far had a higher inflation
• Dollar rate: 9.45 - might be an accurate prediction for the rate on January 1st, but most likely not an average rate for 2015

All spendings will stay unchanged. And to put it in context, the actual spendings for this year already exceed the budget significantly with more than a quarter year to come...

I guess it's time for a change: let's get Maximo overtake - he's already getting positioned as the next leader <_<

 

[Rich One]

another piece of data for the 2015 budget

 

[thorsten]

Reality is a b**ch...

 

[ElQueso]

To dream...the impossible dream...

 

[mjohnstone]

You don't budget, you guesstimate