Business closures in Buenos Aires

[lunar]

In actual fact most business to the street did not close in 2001 because ...

If it is so, then variations of business closure rates is not an indicative measure of crisis.

 

[perry]

If it is so, then variations of business closure rates is not an indicative measure of crisis.

What do you need to see for you to believe that we are in crisis ? Just because in the wealthy areas of Buenos Aires people are eating in restaurants and having coffees does not mean that all is hunky dory . If you go to Athens Greece and you stay in a wealthy area it will seem very nice as well but most of Greece has suffered terribly from a very long crisis that has been imposed by the IMF and has send peoples living levels to the ground .
By the way Lunar where are you from?

 

[deadOA]

Somewhere there is a big disconnect.

I don´t see any of this doom and gloom talk.
Jumbo Palermo during the weekend I saw people dragging 2 and 3 carts each.
Like there is no tomorrow.
No less than 30k or 50k pesos worth merchandise each cart.

What am I missing?

 

[mmoon]

It’s interesting to see someone (Lunar) show up on this site and post 8 messages and seem to proclaim to be the expert on the Argentine economy. Me thinks you need to build some street cred on this site before you read us the gospel on How Things Really Are. If you’ve got some real info or insight, back it up with something besides snark. Like Perry, I was in BA in 2001, and there were not a ton of closed businesses. People were in shock and devastated, but trying to keep it together. There was a sense that true rock bottom had been reached and you had to hang in there for the certain upturn. It was awful, but this lengthy and soul sucking decline Argentina is in right now feels even worse after getting through 2001. It feels like it will never end.

 

[perry]

Are you Argentinian? In actual fact most business to the street did not close in 2001 because the costs to run them were dirt cheap in dollars after the crash and there was less inflation than now . Is this hard to understand? Yes many people lost their jobs but by 2003 the economy was booming . Do you believe that the current crisis will last only 1 year ? Already one year has nearly passed and we have not reached rock bottom . How long this crisis will last noone has a real answer .

Slow crashes are the worst form of económic misery . When you extinguish hope in the population nothing can grow. In 2001 the crash was brutal but very short by 2003 people were investing in Buenos Aires and business while on the upside people could sustain themselves due to the low costs of maintaining a business . Nowadays any business in Palermo Soho needs close to 5000 dollars a month just to stay open . In 2003 costs were at least 70 percent less in dollars . In Palermo Hollywood and Las Canitas everything Is closing down on Báez and Fitzroy. There Is very little consumption . I remember visiting Las Canitas in 2004 and it was buzzing with multitud of people eating and drinking to the early hours of the morning. Nowadays its deserted AND this is a wealthy neighbourhood. In the south of Argentina the situation Is even worse with some towns in Patagonia with 30 percent unemployment. Tourism has dropped at least 50 percent the last years in Patagonia and there are very few business owners that can sustain such a protacted crash. The situation that Argentina Is living today Is called stagflation the most deadly combination as prices in us dollars increase more than peoples earning potential destroying the middle classes hope to save and plan for their future and their childrens future.

 

[camel]

OP (original poster) posts a "shocking" article about businesses closing in Buenos Aires.

Lunar replies to the original post making an argument that the unemployment rate increase across Argentina is statistically insignificant.

OP replies, correctly pointing out that Buenos Aires is 35% of the population.

Lunar replies, redoing the calculation, saying it's still statistically insignificant. 0.17% change versus 9% overall unemployment.

OP says unemployment is actually more like 15%. Lunar says ok that means the 0.17% is even more insignificant than before.

OP throws out a straw man argument, "So Argentina is going fantastic and everyone is living in luxury ?", which Lunar never claimed.

OP and another poster move on to an ad hominem argument. "Are you Argentinian?" "Where are you from?" "... you need to build some street cred on this site ..."


I didn't see Lunar claim that the economy here isn't fscked. I think his/her point was that the article is clickbait.

 

[perry]

Somewhere there is a big disconnect.

I don´t see any of this doom and gloom talk.
Jumbo Palermo during the weekend I saw people dragging 2 and 3 carts each.
Like there is no tomorrow.
No less than 30k or 50k pesos worth merchandise each cart.

What am I missing?

OP (original poster) posts a "shocking" article about businesses closing in Buenos Aires.

Lunar replies to the original post making an argument that the unemployment rate increase across Argentina is statistically insignificant.

OP replies, correctly pointing out that Buenos Aires is 35% of the population.

Lunar replies, redoing the calculation, saying it's still statistically insignificant. 0.17% change versus 9% overall unemployment.

OP says unemployment is actually more like 15%. Lunar says ok that means the 0.17% is even more insignificant than before.

OP throws out a straw man argument, "So Argentina is going fantastic and everyone is living in luxury ?", which Lunar never claimed.

OP and another poster move on to an ad hominem argument. "Are you Argentinian?" "Where are you from?" "... you need to build some street cred on this site ..."


I didn't see Lunar claim that the economy here isn't fscked. I think his/her point was that the article is clickbait.

Really 7000 small business have closed down in 4 months and this is clickbait ? I have never seen this anywhere in the western world a similar situation and its even worse than Greece at the beginning of the crisis ( still ongoing ) . Lets put this in perspective in one year this is 21000 small business only in Buenos Aires province . Now as a conservative bet most of these businesses will have 4 people each and also they will buy products from larger companies as to keep their business going .
How many people will go out of work in a year ?
The poster Lunar did not answer one question nor give any history of himself . I myself have been forthcoming with myself use my real name on the forum and state my reality in 2019 . I am very concerned for the future here in Argentina and I am ready to leave at short notice ( even though I love Argentina more than my home country) . If you are willing to ride out a depressing atmosphere for many years go ahead but 2019 has nothing at all in common with 2004 to 2011 which were the golden years of Argentina for many people here . Does this mean I am a kirchnerista absolutely not but what we have today savage capitalism is just as bad as radical communism . Both sides are evil . Why not have a socialist capitalist system like Norway . Finland. Canada , or Australia or similar countries to Argentina due to natural resources ( except Finland ) .

Now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place choosing between Macri and Christina how cruel is this ?

 

[Ceviche]

The above arguments though sound very high tech..given use of numbers and fancy arguments etc. But truth is that if you actually live in
Buenos Aires, and interact with locals ( instead of having expat friends) on a daily basis..you will know the real situation is v v terrible right now. No need of articles or arguments, the situation is extremely harsh righ now on present day. I was not here in 2001 or 2004. But I have been here since 2007-08. This is probably the worse I have seen. This is not basis some visual sights ..but basis conversation with locals..from CABA and provincias.

 

[deadOA]

Isd

Seriously, tell me how do people buy cheese at $1800 pesos/kg in a depressed economy?
(mind you shitty cheese, not even real cheese)
Am I wrong to think that prices must come down to real earth, if there is the slightest trouble?
Still I am not convinced

Does this mean I am a kirchnerista absolutely not but what we have today savage capitalism is just as bad as radical communism . Both sides are evil . Why not have a socialist capitalist system like Norway . Finland. Canada , or Australia or similar countries to Argentina due to natural resources ( except Finland )

Please don´t shout out loud, @TheDonald might hear you.

 

[perry]

Seriously, tell me how do people buy cheese at $1800 pesos/kg in a depressed economy?
(mind you shitty cheese, not even real cheese)


Please don´t shout out loud, @TheDonald might hear you.

Of course their are rich people and they shop in Jumbo Palermo . Ironically though last Sunday a close friend of mine who has been here 15 years stated like me how few people were in line to check out . There were actually cashiers empty on a Sunday afternoon 6pm peak Time.
5 years ago I remember on Sunday afternoons that it was so busy that the lines were up to 20 deep . Many times I had to leave a full trolley in frustation there because I did not want to wait a hour to be served .