Commodities prices for Argentina in the next decade

bf4

Active Member
#1
Please Paul do your homework, others will always do it for you.
http://www.blonnet.com/2006/07/09/stories/2006070900040400.htm
In other words, developing countries are going to increasingly determine the contours of world agricultural landscape — in terms of production, consumption and trade — according to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006-2015. Those in the agricultural commodity market have to take cognisance of the emerging situation
What's the outlook for world crop prices to the year 2015? On the grains front,


While the five traditional exporting countries — the US, Canada, the EU, Argentina and Australia — are likely to retain their dominant position in trade, newer origins like Ukraine and Kazakhstan are expected to pose competition.
Overall, growth in import demand for vegetable oil is projected to exceed that of protein meal. In addition to China, India, Pakistan and the EU will remain large importers. The US, Brazil and Argentina will account for substantial part of global oilseed exports, while Malaysia and Indonesia will continue to be leading exporters of palm oil. Diversion of vegetable oil to meet bio-diesel demand will also add to the global requirement and create supply tightness; but output could soon catch up in response to high prices.
another interesting piece
http://www.wharton.universia.net/index.cfm?fa=viewfeature&language=english&id=1079
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/03/bloomberg/sxpesek.php
"They suggest, for example, that global demand for raw materials will continue to surge in the years ahead. "
"Few seem to appreciate how much the global shift from farms to cities will affect markets. Nowhere is that dynamic more noticeable than in Asia, home not only to the world's largest populations, but to the fastest-growing ones, as well."

"While largely unnoticed by investors, global urbanization is going to be one of the most powerful and important trends," says Joseph Quinlan, New York-based chief market strategist at Banc of America Capital Management. "The world's resource base confronts unprecedented demand as a new urban world unfolds. Against this backdrop, the secular bull market in energy and basic materials is just beginning."
all this continues, don't be surprised to see investors selling Asian debt in favor of stocks issued by energy and basic materials companies. The targets may be commodity suppliers in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada and Chile that seem poised to profit from a trend that may be less cyclical than many pundits predict.
The world may be approaching the first time in history when the number of urban dwellers exceeds those in rural areas. The United Nations estimates that this shift may happen by 2007

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQZ5eJo0T7b4&refer=home
"Pergam Finance, a Paris-based investment company with $1 billion in assets, two years ago started Campos Orientales, a fund that buys farmland in Argentina and Uruguay. The company formed a venture with Bellamar Estancias, owned by Argentina's Hirsch family, that manages 120,000 hectares and plans to raise $70 million for farmland acquisitions"
"He anticipates annual returns of 15 percent in the next five years from his South American land investments."
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net .






http://www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri/downloads/paper1f2001.pdf.
 
#2
"bf4" said:
In other words, developing countries are going to increasingly determine the contours of world agricultural landscape — in terms of production, consumption and trade — according to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006-2015. Those in the agricultural commodity market have to take cognisance of the emerging situation.
By "developing countries," I presume the writer means China and India -- countries which have their own growing military muscle. Up to now, it's been European and North American agribusiness firms -- backed by the power of their governments -- which have dominated the global agricultural scene. If this influence diminishes, it'll be only because new multinational actors from India and China emerge. But it's unlikely the game itself will change. Banana republics remain poor and impoverished no matter what the world demand for bananas. Any country that depends solely on agricultual produce for its (ephemeral) prosperity cannot succeed. The system is rigged; by implication so are commodity prices. To succed at this game, a country needs its own agribusiness multinationals and a state apparatus that can pry open overseas markets. Multinationals like Cargill and ADM are not huge without a reason. The bulk of the profits accrue to them and not to primary producers.
At the moment, China is buying heavily on world markets. But at some stage it will get into the game of controlling output and prices from the countries it buys from. Like Europe and the USA.
Argentina is a "comprador economy": the local bourgeoisie are commission agents and junior partners to global outfits. Most of the rest of the population lives in poverty. This situation is unlikely to change.
In a nutshell, high commodity prices are unlikely to be permanent. And whatever their level, they will benefit mostly foreign outfits and but a thin sliver of Argentina's population.
 
P

Paul_NL

Guest
#3
You nailed it on the head BBW
P.S. I was also talking about petro-industry, tourism and meat.
P.S 2: There were 40 million cattles in Argentina in 1970 and 40 million in Brasil as well. Now there are still 40 million in Argentina and 200 million in Brasil and exports Uruguay more meat then Argentina does
 
#5
"Granadaiscool" said:
Can anybody name me one major Argentinian company?
Nothing I know which compares to Brazil's Embraer or Finland's Nokia (two countries which aren't front-rank but which have successful large-scale manufacturing companies). Still, economics isn't everything. Argentina has its tango and football.
 
#6
Tenaris is a quite well known internationally argentine firm in the oil business.
It is the world´s biggest manufacturer and supplier of tubular products for the oil & gas industry, believe it or not.
In the grain´s sector Bunge &Born was quite well known in the grains sector... and Arcor exports to many countries across the world
But it´s true there aren´´t many argentine firms are knwon internationally, as is the case with Peruvian firms, Bolivian firms, Pakistani firms, costa rican firms?, portuguese firms, and so on....
 

bf4

Active Member
#9
Baires, pedro and others,
I'm sorry but you are forgetting quite a few names
IRSA
ARCOR
TECHINT
FARGO
MASTELLONE
MOLINOS RIO DE LA PLATA
BAGO
BANCO GALICIA
LA BUENOS AIRES SEGUROS
ACEITE GENERAL DEHEZA
TELEFE
FAMILIA ZUCCARDI
BODEGAS LOPEZ
SEPSA PAGO FACIL
CATENA ZAPATA
COTO
ACINDAR
SANCOR\
CERVECERIA QUILMES
SWISS MEDICAL
TELEVISION FEDERAL
TOP 10 BEST SELLING FIRMS 2005





Supermercados
Un poco más concentrados
El grupo de origen francés integrado por Carrefour, Supermercados Norte y Día %, continuó ostentando el liderazgo en este sector con un volumen de negocios conjunto de $ 4.300 millones.
Fue escoltado por el presidido por el empresario chileno Horst Paullman, tradicionalmente integrado por Jumbo y Easy, a los que recientemente sumó Disco y Plaza Vea, cuya compra ya fue abonada aunque al cierre de esta edición aún faltaban algunos requisitos formales para legalizarla. De esta forma, las ventas conjuntas del grupo trasandino se elevaron a $ 3.902 millones.
El tercer lugar es para Coto con $ 2.224 millones, cifra que si bien muestra un aumento de 9,9% con respecto a 2.003 ($ 2.024 millones) aun esta lejos del nivel de $ 2.807 millones del 2.002.
Resulta interesante destacar el comportamiento exhibido por Importadora y Exportadora de la Patagonia, que viene expandiéndose hacia el norte con la compra de diversos supermercados en zonas que anteriormente no cubría. Por tal motivo, sus ventas consolidadas treparon de $ 883 a $ 1.032 millones (16,8%), nivel que le permitió superar por ligero margen el máximo anterior de $ 1.020 millones del 2.002.
Supermercado Mayorista Makro se destacó también por el auge de su actividad. Sumó ventas por $ 774 millones, que constituyen un nuevo record; superaron el anterior de $ 693 millones correspondiente también al año 2.002.
Los restantes integrantes de este sector, no muestran variaciones de significación con respecto a los años precedentes; en general sus ventas acompañaron la evolución normal de los precios.





Fuera de término
Cuando ya había finalizado el plazo para la recepción de la información, se recibieron los datos de las empresas Search, especializada en sistemas de seguridad y vigilancia, y de Teleperformance Argentina, dedicada a telemarketing y teleservicios. Durante el año pasado la primera concretó negocios por $ 73 millones y la segunda por $ 61 millones. De esta forma, le hubieran correspondido los puestos 735 y 849, en ese orden, en el ranking. También se recibieron los datos del supermercado mayorista Ricardo Nini con ventas por $ 240 millones





p.s: The Brazil comparison is just not fair, think in terms of the sheer size of the market: 180 millions compared to 36. Besides Brazil didn't undergo the brutal selling out of most of its conglomerates during the nineties that Argentina embarked on. That is reflected on the market cap of both stock exchanges:the Bovespa just cannot be compared to our local Merval, it must be like 20 times the Merval a) for the development of the country b)because many argentine firms were sold in the mid nineties and were unlisted and listed on others for example the NYSE, this was not the case in Brazil
Source:
http://www.mercado.com.ar/mercado/vernota.asp?id_producto=1&id_edicion=1047&id_nota=31
 
#10
Both YPF and Organizacion Techint seem to have real size by global standards. Some others in the top 25 are US multinationals. And perhaps some of the other Argentinian companies listed are state-owned(?).
I seem to recall an Argentinian oilman who was trying to arrange financing for oil and gas pipelines in Kazakhstan until he was eventually shouldered aside by US oil giants.