I have considerable doubts about the TPP:
1. Since I am in favour of free and fair trade, the little that has been leaked out of the deal has shown that
this is not a free trade agreement at all, and will rather increase protectionist measures such as copyright and patent protections.
2. The "trade" aspect of this agreement is greatly exaggerated by its proponents.
By GDP,
the US already has free trade with 82% of the countries in the deal. So what exactly are the barriers that are being broken down? There is no evidence that they outweigh the increased protectionism that we know is in the deal.
3. The
most optimistic forecasts say that the
TPP could lead to +0.4% GDP. If you look at these optimistic estimates, they assume full employment in all signatory countries over the next 12 years, and furthermore they assume that no employment disruptions would occur from the inevitable offshoring-- all for a measly +0.4%. Empirical evidence would have to show that the risks and damages caused by the deal (such as offshoring of jobs and decreased international access to pharmaceuticals) should be far less than this meager gain.
4. This looks a lot
like NAFTA, which decimated Mexican agriculture because Mexico was unable to compete with highly subsidised US agriculture, thus increasing unemployment in Mexico and destroying the country's economic growth, and leading to increased immigration northward. A TPP would have to eliminate agriculture subsidies to avoid this, and Japan, Australia and New Zealand have all categorically refused to make any such agreement to decrease their subsidies.
5. The Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism envisaged in the TPP will effectively
limit any sort of public control over corporate regulation, allowing companies to sue the public if they don't like a country's regulations,
undermining local law. And their suits would be decided by a secret panel staffed without public control.
6. The TPP will
decrease regulation over risky financial instruments like credit default swaps which led to the 2008 crisis. Thus, when combined with the ISDS clause, if the US were to want to, for example,
reinstate Glass-Steagel protections that prevent banks from mixing their banking business with risky investment/casino business, the US could be sued by JP Morgan/Goldman et al, and forced by an unelected secret panel of business interests to return to the unregulated situation that led to the 2008 crisis.
In short, little has been disclosed about the TPP, but every bit that has leaked out has been shown to be categorically damaging. It has
nothing to do with free trade, it will make
medicine less accessible, make the
internet less free, and a whole array of other major issues that will affect most people negatively: all in exchange for
benefits that are very meager at best. In view of these negative aspects, while it should not be rejected outright, TPP
should nevertheless be open to a major transparent public debate.
In solidarity,
Ed