Thats rubbish. Cuadernogate is being hyped to the max but the supposedely neoliberal Pro Macri media are ALWAYS talking about the energy tariff increases and inflation and how the middle class are being increasingly squeezed. Not quite as hystericaly as Channel 5 but they do. On the other hand channel 5 are now desperately trying to sell the idea that a little bit of help- your- selfy by the CFK mob, if that is what has been going down, is justified because they managed to turn Argentina into Switzerland during their glorious tenure.
Do you fear a crash similar to 2001?
- Thread starter perry
- Start date
Thats rubbish. Cuadernogate is being hyped to the max but the supposedely neoliberal Pro Macri media are ALWAYS talking about the energy tariff increases and inflation and how the middle class are being increasingly squeezed. Not quite as hystericaly as Channel 5 but they do. On the other hand channel 5 are now desperately trying to sell the idea that a little bit of help- your- selfy by the CFK mob, if that is what has been going down, is justified because they managed to turn Argentina into Switzerland during their glorious tenure.
Bajo_cero2
Registered
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2010
- Messages
- 7,941
- Likes
- 4,371
Rubbish? The lawyer of the former President was not allowed by the judge to control the procedure of inspection of his home, even the Congress order it because the law says so.
The scandal of the brives to the press cannot be ignored. Neither the troll centera paid with tax money.
The preoccupation with the middle class is a distinctly neoliberal phenomenon yes. The 'middle class' in a country like Argentina is maybe 15 or 20% of the population, if that. There are far more people who are just plain poor, who would never be mentioned in the mainstream media.
Different topic, but the peso is currently in freefall. It's dropped about 1% every day for the last week.
Another view on the economic situation...
"The supply of pesos has been increasing by about 30% per year since 2010, while the supply of US dollars has been increasing by about 6% per year. So the supply of pesos relative to the supply of dollars has been increasing by about 24% per year. That implies that the value of the peso relative to the dollar should be declining by about 19% per year."
"Why so much money printing? Because it's an easy, sneaky way of financing the government's deficit. The Central Bank effectively allows the government to spend Monopoly money in exchange for a meaningless IOU. Whoever holds pesos suffers a loss of purchasing power on an almost daily basis. That loss of purchasing power is otherwise known as an "inflation tax." The government funds its deficit by effectively robbing holders of its currency. That hits the little guy hard, and destroys confidence in the country in the process. It's hard to make significant investments in a country with a constantly depreciating currency."
"Rather than own up to its shenanigans, the central bank first tried to "defend" the peso by selling one-fifth of its foreign reserves. Then the government sought $50 billion of "help" from the IMF, which it is in turn selling to further try to defend the peso. None of this has worked, of course, because it hasn't addressed the underlying problem, which is that there are way too many pesos being created."
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/06/a-simple-fix-for-argentinas-peso.html
"The supply of pesos has been increasing by about 30% per year since 2010, while the supply of US dollars has been increasing by about 6% per year. So the supply of pesos relative to the supply of dollars has been increasing by about 24% per year. That implies that the value of the peso relative to the dollar should be declining by about 19% per year."
"Why so much money printing? Because it's an easy, sneaky way of financing the government's deficit. The Central Bank effectively allows the government to spend Monopoly money in exchange for a meaningless IOU. Whoever holds pesos suffers a loss of purchasing power on an almost daily basis. That loss of purchasing power is otherwise known as an "inflation tax." The government funds its deficit by effectively robbing holders of its currency. That hits the little guy hard, and destroys confidence in the country in the process. It's hard to make significant investments in a country with a constantly depreciating currency."
"Rather than own up to its shenanigans, the central bank first tried to "defend" the peso by selling one-fifth of its foreign reserves. Then the government sought $50 billion of "help" from the IMF, which it is in turn selling to further try to defend the peso. None of this has worked, of course, because it hasn't addressed the underlying problem, which is that there are way too many pesos being created."
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/06/a-simple-fix-for-argentinas-peso.html
wrangler
Registered
- Joined
- Jun 2, 2018
- Messages
- 344
- Likes
- 275
It's not just the printing of Pesos that is causing the devaluation. The PBI (Producto Bruto Interno) is predicted to fall during the 2nd half of the year. The Argentine deficit continues to grow, confidence in Macrinomics is falling more by the day, and there is no expectation of any improvements anytime soon. Most think that Argentina is going to default again, and then what??
I think that is when the unrest will occur when we default, and we will default again. Under Macri, you can take that to the bank. Although I don't see this scenario as likely, I am not completely ruling out that Macri exits stage left before the elections, Like De La Rua, by Helicopter, or maybe gets tired, and calls for early elections. It's happened before here. I say in 18 months or less...
Last edited:
perry
Registered
- Joined
- Jun 20, 2006
- Messages
- 4,647
- Likes
- 2,498
https://peru21.pe/economia/economia-argentina-desploma-6-7-junio-sequia-crisis-cambiaria-nndc-423127
The economy contracted 6 % in June and economists predict that in 2018 it will contract 2% negative .
This is the first contraction of the economy since 2003 with a prognosis for 2019 of a deep recession
The economy contracted 6 % in June and economists predict that in 2018 it will contract 2% negative .
This is the first contraction of the economy since 2003 with a prognosis for 2019 of a deep recession
Most don't think Argentina is going to default again in the short/medium term. JP Morgan has it around 7-8% chance. If you're so confident in it happening you should go buy some credit default swaps on the cheap and make a fortune off a wall street bank.
perry
Registered
- Joined
- Jun 20, 2006
- Messages
- 4,647
- Likes
- 2,498
Mike did you know that before the last crash maybe 5% of the population had any inkling that this would happen . Crashes do not come with advance warning but they come with signs that are very apparent for those who look . I ask you how does Argentina pay back its 250 billion dollars in foreign debt but only has 55 billions in foreign reserves and a economy in recession ? There will be a default and with this a massive correction of the argentinian peso . Just this year alone it has devalued 60% imagine if it defaults on its obligations a devaluation similar to 2001 is on the cards .
