Dolar Blue Predictions

[Lulu-Kyoko]

I will be returning once again to Argentina, this time on December 15th.

I am wondering what the general consensus is on the blue dolar?

My choices are (1) to wire money now and take advantage of it at 14.5 or
(2) wait until December.

I see that it hit at high recently of 15+. (For some comparison, I was just there in August and it was around 12).

Thank you!

 

[thorsten]

There's a lot of fluctuation short-term, but in the long run there is only one trend: it will go up... So in general its smart to postpone the wiring as much as possible.

 

[Rich One]

In December the dollar will not be below 14,5 !

 

[Noruega]

Any particular reason it is going down right now? Kicking myself for not changing last week when it was so high!!

 

[splattermatter]

20 at summer vacations

 

[ARbound]

Any particular reason it is going down right now? Kicking myself for not changing last week when it was so high!!

Because dear leader threatened the market with AFIP raids, plus the change up in BCRA leadership spooked the
markets and sent the Merval and blue chip stock in to the red.

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

Any half-educated economist knows that in a free functioning market when the government threatens that equals supply interruption. When supply is interrupted then prices go up. However, last week the Blue dropped. That means the blue dollar is not a free functioning market like we understand it.

That can only mean that the government is playing in this market itself.

I'm shocked.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

We'll see 20 or thereabouts in Dec as Aguinaldos come in and get turned into dollars, when people need dollars for the Jan holidays and other seasonal factors.

If we see 20 for a prolonged period we might see a follow up "this is not a devaluation" devaluation event to the tune of another 20%.

 

[Churchill]

I'm no expert so my opinion may be worth shit BUT it has risen 'only' 4.6 pesos since start of the year, can't see it rising another 5.4 pesos in the last 12 weeks.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I believe the aguinaldo factor and holiday factor will be significant, there is a rush to turn depreciating pesos into dollars at the end of every year.

Perhaps the elevated price will crush demand, but we'll see.

One thing is for sure, the overall trend (despite some minor blips) is only heading in one direction.