Dólar Blue Predictions

[Lorenzito]

Hello guys,

I have been here just for a couple of months and think there are some people here with A LOT more experience than me.
I have been wondering what the logical prediction for the Dólar Blue exchange rate will look like after the official exchange rate has been raised.
I have also been wondering what impact this change would have on daily life, since (I believe!) basically everyone has been using the Dólar Blue anyway for the past few years
I know there is no definitive answer, but still I would be interested to hear your opinions.

Thanks in advance
Lorenz

 

[Caribbean Cool]

The blue dollar...has the blues.

 

[Frank2000]

A wild and useless guess on my part just for fun: There was a small bubble on the blue during the elections, the rate will be around 1000 until January 2024, then it will start behaving in a similar manner to how it behaved in 2023 - mostly and gradually moving up depending on the dollar's value against a basket of other currencies.

 

[Rich One]

The gap between the Blue and the Official is at a Record LOW around 30 %. This will not last too long. By March 2024 the gap may be around 100 % ..! Says my Crystall ball.

 

[Frank2000]

The gap between the Blue and the Official is at a Record LOW around 30 %. This will not last too long. By March 2024 the gap may be around 100 % ..! Says my Crystall ball.

If the official rate is not artificially kept low, as the current government promises not to do, then there should be no gap. Don't you think? Or do you predict this government will also try to control the official rate just like the previous governments.

 

[SinPulgas]

If the official rate is not artificially kept low, as the current government promises not to do, then there should be no gap. Don't you think? Or do you predict this government will also try to control the official rate just like the previous governments.

The government has just finished promising that they are going to keep the official dollar artificially low, at least for a while. They are saying that there will be an average of 1% inflation per day for a month or more, and that they are going to adjust the official dollar up at a rate of 2% per month.

 

[Quilombo]

The government has just finished promising that they are going to keep the official dollar artificially low, at least for a while. They are saying that there will be an average of 1% inflation per day for a month or more, and that they are going to adjust the official dollar up at a rate of 2% per month.

And this is why the blue has to go up imo, maybe not 100%+ brecha like previously, but if banks are asking the BCRA to end UVA plaza fijos, people have to shield themselves from inflation and volatility some how, and the dollar is where pesos go.

We've done this song and dance a thousand times and governments whether K, PRO, or LLA don't seem to understand that resistance to devaluation when inflation is high is extremely short sighted. The crawling peg only works when inflation is in the lower double digits in Argentina.

 

[mikic007]

If the official rate is not artificially kept low, as the current government promises not to do, then there should be no gap. Don't you think? Or do you predict this government will also try to control the official rate just like the previous governments.

This is, if everyone can buy as many dolars as they wish (have pesos for). As soon as big part of the society has to turn to black market for foreign currency, you have a gap. And is worse if government will try to breach that gap again and again, because dólar blue is not real value of peso, is real value for the restricted currency only.

I've just been in supermarket and practically all prices doubled in a week, now they are very similar to european prices, vegetables and fruits are even way more expensive. Doesn't affect me really, but cannot imagine average argentino keeping up.

 

[Wade K.]

I've just been in supermarket and practically all prices doubled in a week, now they are very similar to european prices, vegetables and fruits are even way more expensive. Doesn't affect me really, but cannot imagine average argentino keeping up.

Bet that makes a lot of expats long for the previous administration. I really love the country but if prices are approaching European prices and there's no relief in sight for quite awhile guess I'll just stay in the States and live in a camper out on Federal land.

 

[aloevera]

Prediction: Milei's campaign promise of dollarization never happens ("expats" are wrong). The peso goes to 10.000 for 1 US dollar. Piqueteros take to the streets. Milei eventually ends up in prison as Bolsonaro will. Eventually, the militant peronist, former canciller and current national deputy, Cafiero, becomes President. Peronism dominates the country until at least the mid 2040s.

You're welcome.