Dollar and Inflation Rate Predictions End 2019

The world economy could be in recession in 2019, Europe could be doing QE thing and Argentina could go crazy.
29% inflation is the default value in Argentina.
 
Inflation 29 % oh joy. Where does it end? I know dumb question. I think 2019 or most of it will also be a recession as well sadly. Seeing businesses starting to go under fairly regularly. Not good. But this is Argentina and it is what it is.
 
As of now world's biggest trader China is slowing down; they are cutting on imports and dealing with their 250% debt to GDP problem, they are also under great pressure to open its books and stop its invasive technology-stealing practices, many economists are beginning to doubt their official growth figure of 6.5% and the trade war is putting an enormous pressure particularly on their IT industry; a lot of the Chinese manufacturing is shifting to countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, even returning back to USA.

Germany has barely averted recession in 2018; they struggle to export enough at the moment in order to grow their industry so discounts are encouraged mirroring the 2008 situation, stimulative measures are expected in Europe this year and beyond; considering the lingering banking issues in Italy, the French under-performance, Spanish political issues, etc... not to mention the overall political divide and the euro skepticism in general. No-deal reality of Brexit is bad for European unity and it's not clear how it will impact the global economy as a whole.

The United States has finished its artificial expansionary cycle and now flirting with the idea of stimulating again? The interest rate isn't going to rise and productivity is being flat for awhile, people are selling real estate out of fear. Their northern neighbor Canada is struggling to generate a boom in their economy in spite of stimulative measures taken by the liberal government as of late, they prioritized social programs over debt, the low oil does not help their situation either, the Canadian housing is slowing down too just like it does in Australia. Canada's federal budget deficit is expected to top $1 trillion by 2020 and this will come biting them eventually.

Most of the global growth is currently coming from India, Philippines, Cambodia, Ehiopia and several others.

Argentina's largest trading partner Brazil is expected to curb its demand for Argentine goods because of their protectionist measures and the increasing competition in the commodities market, in terms of cheap labor they've got tons of Venezuelan refugees who are willing to sweat for less than Paraguayans but the relationship should still continue improving for as long as Macri gets re-elected, however, if Queen Christie reclaims her throne then we can expect a cold hand from Brazil and a much worse investment climate, even a downgrade and a much higher dollar; in the 50s at least.

Overall the global trade is busy readjusting itself because of the protectionist Trump administration and their aggression towards various countries, many developing nations are also busy looking for long-term sustainable debt solutions and continuing to struggle politically, certain trade deals are currently being in the process of negotiations. In regards to Argentine inflation, the inflation at a consumer price index stood at 47.6% as of December of 2018 and will continue to grow because of tariff increases, continued upward retail price adjustments (retailers are refusing to take the cut so its all being passed to the consumer), and the purchasing power of average Argentines will continue to suffer due to continued cuts in salaries and pensions. I believe that 2019 will also be in recession and that in 2020 Argentina will attempt to renegotiate its debt repayment with IMF with the pretext of unfavorable international conditions and due to dollar volatility but IMF will stick to its own plan and pressure Argentina to make more cuts and continue with austerity in spite of wide-spread backlash from the public, at that point we might see a technical default and return to full currency controls similar to pre-2015 with an exception of being adjusted to accommodate and protect existing investments. Overall, dark times are yet to come and it's not so bad of an idea to continue buying dollars for whatever price and do expect road blockages and an increase in riots.
 
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As of now world's biggest trader China is slowing down; they are cutting on imports and dealing with their 250% debt to GDP problem, .......
Overall the global trade is busy readjusting itself because of the protectionist Trump administration and their aggression towards various countries, many developing nations are also busy looking for long-term sustainable debt solutions and continuing to struggle politically, certain trade deals are currently being in the process of negotiations. In regards to Argentine inflation, the inflation at a consumer price index stood at 47.6% as of December of 2018 and will continue to grow because of tariff increases, continued upward retail price adjustments (retailers are refusing to take the cut so its all being passed to the consumer), and the purchasing power of average Argentines will continue to suffer due to continued cuts in salaries and pensions. I believe that 2019 will also be in recession and that in 2020 Argentina will attempt to renegotiate its debt repayment with IMF with the pretext of unfavorable international conditions and due to dollar volatility but IMF will stick to its own plan and pressure Argentina to make more cuts and continue with austerity in spite of wide-spread backlash from the public, at that point we might see a technical default and return to full currency controls similar to pre-2015 with an exception of being adjusted to accommodate and protect existing investments. Overall, dark times are yet to come and it's not so bad of an idea to continue buying dollars for whatever price and do expect road blockages and an increase in riots.

Nice summary, thanks.
The most likely debt solution for the US will be devaluing the dollar. I wonder what will happen when the world can no longer rely on a stable dollar.

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I wonder what will happen when the world can no longer rely on a stable dollar.

For now there is no global reserve currency candidate other than the US dollar, the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The Chinese renminbi isn't mature yet but it can earn the status of a reserve currency in the future if China finally opens its economy (respecting free market principles) and allows its currency to float freely with no intervention from the central government. Considering the depth of the Chinese problems though, and the expected internal political turmoils, their currency is unlikely to serve as a global currency anytime in the next decade and beyond, unless they really tackle issues and turn things around.

Today, 70% of all the dollars in the world are traded outside US's borders and about 62% of all the global central bank foreign exchange reserves are in dollars. The euro holds about 20% of foreign reserves, it could exceed that figure if Europe sorts out their internal political issues and demonstrates financial stability for at least half a decade and the fact that they aren't stable economically and politically makes the dollar de facto global currency.

The Japanese Yen hasn't showed any promise yet, the Japanese economy has been stagnating for a long time and continues to lose significance as its people are aging and disappearing, so the economy is expected to shrink. You need a large enough of an economy to serve as a sufficient collateral to qualify a currency to act like a global reserve currency, this way it is less volatile and well suited for trading commodities. Gold or any other thing cannot be used because there isn't enough of it in circulation plus it's not practical, realistically speaking, the dollar is the only thing that can guarantee relative economic stability in the world for many years to come.
 
For now there is no global reserve currency candidate other than the US dollar, the Euro and the Japanese Yen. The Chinese renminbi isn't mature yet but it can earn the status of a reserve currency in the future if China finally opens its economy (respecting free market principles) and allows its currency to float freely with no intervention from the central government. Considering the depth of the Chinese problems though, and the expected internal political turmoils, their currency is unlikely to serve as a global currency anytime in the next decade and beyond, unless they really tackle issues and turn things around.

Today, 70% of all the dollars in the world are traded outside US's borders and about 62% of all the global central bank foreign exchange reserves are in dollars. The euro holds about 20% of foreign reserves, it could exceed that figure if Europe sorts out their internal political issues and demonstrates financial stability for at least half a decade and the fact that they aren't stable economically and politically makes the dollar de facto global currency.

The Japanese Yen hasn't showed any promise yet, the Japanese economy has been stagnating for a long time and continues to lose significance as its people are aging and disappearing, so the economy is expected to shrink. You need a large enough of an economy to serve as a sufficient collateral to qualify a currency to act like a global reserve currency, this way it is less volatile and well suited for trading commodities. Gold or any other thing cannot be used because there isn't enough of it in circulation plus it's not practical, realistically speaking, the dollar is the only thing that can guarantee relative economic stability in the world for many years to come.
US dollar will benefit so much if euro collapses. Before the euros, dollar dominated the world. Now Asia and Latin America still can not live without dollars. Dollar is still the currency that everyone accepts.
 
i don't know why they even bother issuing predictions here. the only certainty is uncertainty.
 
Since most Economists, with Phd.s, have proven to be almost completely unable to make accurate predictions, I find it pretty amusing that amateurs on a chat site think they know what will happen. I suppose if you always predict the worst will happen, once in a while you will be right.
Which is not to say wacky and unexpected things will happen in Argentina- thats a safe prediction.
 
Remember Professor Samuelson ,( Nobel Prize), his predictions on the economy, in Time Magazine (circa 1968) were always wrong, so he decided to publish instead funny remarks...
 
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