Dollar Blue Will Drop Like Stone

[ajoknoblauch]

"owned" "controlled" same difference.

The Herald contains some of the most vigorous criticism of the government that you will find in the Argentine press. Given the government's sub-monolingualism, though, they probably don't care very much about that.

 

[AmigoArtistico]

Thanks for the reply AmigoArtistico.

By just looking at the volume of usd denominated transactions in NYC, it would be difficult to tell which sales were being used as contado con liqui, and which were regular sales originating in the US. Really, I am just trying to wrap my head around the relative sizes of the blue market, the contado con liqui market, and the official market.

I have noticed that recently some companies dividend payments to their ADRs in the US have been suspended with no explanation by AFIP. So, argentinian companies paying local dividends in pesos have no problem, but if those shares have ADR equivalents abroad, then those ADRs are not receiving any payments. Apparently the central bank is simply refusing to transfer the money even though it is sitting there.

This fact makes me skeptical about the future of ALL foreign denominated bond payments at both the corporate and sovereign level. If the government can block legitimate dividend payments with no explanation, it is not that far of a stretch to start blocking interest payments as well.

I understand your goal. It's tricky, since the "contado con liqui" is really just a term for arbitrage, using certain bonds, such as the BODEN series, particularly the BODEN 2015 -- although there are other bonds and some Argentine traded stocks that are also used -- and you can't separate out the arbitrage from normal trading activity. But if you are diligent about looking in Clarín and LN every day and reading the articles about the dollar (they're usually short and they're not there every day), in a reasonably short time you'll have a good feel for these markets.

Remember, too. This is a black market. Nobody's keeping detailed, reliable statistics (not even the INDEC -- sorry, I couldn't resist). You're never going to get more than estimates, though you can look for unusual spikes in trading volume of Argentine bonds and compare that to the blue and contado con liqui prices, along with the current political and dollar policy news, to do your own analysis. For me, that's overkill, but if you've got bolsos of plata...

From time to time there are numbers quoted on the approximate sizes of these markets. I have read, for example, that the "contado con liqui" market is about twice the size of the "blue" market, although that was many months ago and things may have changed. Estimates for the sizes of these markets in dollars are occasionally given. These are probably the best sources you're going find for the information you're looking for, since the numbers are coming from people who are actually doing the arbitrage on behalf of their clients (in the case of the contado con liqui).

Of course you can search for past articles in Clarín and La Nación and other periodicals for past articles on these markets and I'm sure you can catch up fairly quickly.

Links to some very recent articles:

http://www.ieco.clar..._922108068.html
http://www.ieco.clar..._923907881.html
http://www.lanacion....stesia-al-dolar
http://www.ieco.clarin.com/economia/Gobierno-volvio-intervenir-enfriar-dolar_0_919708068.html

 

[GS_Dirtboy]

*snip*

From time to time there are numbers quoted on the approximate sizes of these markets. I have read, for example, that the "contado con liqui" market is about twice the size of the "blue" market, although that was many months ago and things may have changed. Estimates for the sizes of these markets in dollars are occasionally given. These are probably the best sources you're going find for the information you're looking for, since the numbers are coming from people who are actually doing the arbitrage on behalf of their clients (in the case of the contado con liqui).

That's not very big since the K's keep saying that there are only about 200,000 people who use the "blue" market. Hahahahahaha!

 

[AmigoArtistico]

Article about the dollar mentioning bond sales by the ANSES to push down the dollar, contado con liqui, blue, the blanqueo, and more:

http://www.ieco.clarin.com/economia/Dolar-vuelta-tuerca-ultima_0_924507582.html

US$200 million in bond sales between the 9th and 14th of May.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

"owned" "controlled" same difference.

The Herald contains some of the harshest criticism of the government. It probably helps, though, that everyone in the government appears to follow Cristina's lead in terms of English-language skills.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Forbes, Newsweek and Lonely Planet aren't exactly government mouthpieces either ! Some of the channels and publications are quite niche with I would guess low viewing figures.

In terms of readership figures, subscribers and viewers I would Grupo Clarin and La Nacion still outstrip the govt media wing. Without scale the picture is a little bit exagerrated here.

 

[glasgowjohn]

When was the table drawn up

C5N is now owned by Vila Manzano and it has changed its editorial stance from semi independent to pro K

 

[AmigoArtistico]

I stopped reading the Buenos Aires Herald years ago. The articles seem written by people who don't live here.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

I stopped reading the Buenos Aires Herald years ago. The articles seem written by people who don't live here.

I know the editorials resonate with people here, but to me it is merely preaching to the converted. I find very little in terms of investigative journalism and dislike the laboured, awkward style of writing. All very forgettable, I understand they were once very relavent but for me they are trading off past glories (real or perceived).

Oppenheimer in the Miami Herald is more of the same tired confirmation bias. No sign that he spends much time in the country (although maybe someone will correct me here). I can't recall ever reading anything by any of the above and thinking that it was new information or truly enjoying the way the article was composed.

 

[ajoknoblauch]

I stopped reading the Buenos Aires Herald years ago. The articles seem written by people who don't live here.

Bob Cox spends half the year in BA and the rest in South Carolina. Graham-Yooll still lives in Barracas, to the best of my knowledge, though he's only an occasional contributor. Michael Soltys certainly lives in BA. Neilson I believe lives in Pinamar.

I agree that the writing is sometimes stilted, as if English were a second language. As far as investigative reporting goes, it's really a small niche paper without the budget to do much of that, and necessarily Porteño.