Dollar Value IF Macri or CFK Wins...?

Rich One

Registered
A Brazilian Investment Bank BTG has predicted the potential values of the Dollar in each case...


Google Translate of text

! In the scenario of a victory of Macri /Cambiemos, the dollar practically would be flat in the current levels, that is to say that it would end the year at $ 46. But the picture is completely different if the former president CFK, is successful. In that case, there would be a strong scenario of capital flight and the currency would reach $ 75 pesos in December, an increase of more than 60% over the level of the last days.!
 

Bajo_cero2

Well-Known Member
Bs. They predicted a usd at 20 if CFK wins and it is at 46. The assertion is ridiculous because there capital fligh is record with MM and CFK is going to resurrect the restrictions to Capital flight.
 

TheDonald

Registered
A Brazilian Investment Bank BTG has predicted the potential values of the Dollar in each case...


Google Translate of text

! In the scenario of a victory of Macri /Cambiemos, the dollar practically would be flat in the current levels, that is to say that it would end the year at $ 46. But the picture is completely different if the former president CFK, is successful. In that case, there would be a strong scenario of capital flight and the currency would reach $ 75 pesos in December, an increase of more than 60% over the level of the last days.!
This article is insightful but the analysis is incomplete. It assumes a stagnant dollar.

Currency exchange is the purchase/sale of two commodities. Currency exchange is no different from trading oil for corn or gold for pork bellies. The only difference in a currency exchange is that you are trading one unit of monetary value for another. Just as in gold, oil or corn, the laws of supply and demand set currency exchange rates. The article linked to this post states that demand for the Argentine peso will fall while demand for the dollar will remain constant, if Cristina is elected.

Assuming a stagnant dollar, this is true. But in the real world, the assumption is not valid. If the socialists in the United States continue to gain traction, demand for the dollar will fall significantly. Currency traders, investors and economists hate socialism - as Argentina's experience aptly shows. If socialists advance, the dollar will fall against ALL other currencies. This is why I mention the laws of supply/demand above. With a pro-socialist movement, ALL demand for the dollar will fall - not just demand in relation to Argentine pesos. The dollar will fall against the yen, the euro, the pound, the looney, the ruble...you name it.

If the socialists in the US continue, and Macri wins, I predict a dollar will buy 35 pesos. If the former condition holds true and Cristina wins, I predict a dollar will buy 50 pesos. If the socialist movement dies, then I roughly agree with the article mentioned in this post.

If socialism continues its unfortunate advance in the US, not only will life for expats get more expensive. Life will get more expensive for all Americans. As the dollar weakens, the price for imported goods will rise proportionally.

Some of you may doubt. Go ahead. There are no free lunches in economics. If socialism continues in the US, there will be a significant price. A weaker dollar will only be one of those prices....
 

perry

Veteran
Bs. They predicted a usd at 20 if CFK wins and it is at 46. The assertion is ridiculous because there capital fligh is record with MM and CFK is going to resurrect the restrictions to Capital flight.
A dollar at 20 with current prices will make Argentina the most expensive country in the world now . How did you come to this figure ?
 
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