Epicenter of Pandemic in Latin America now becoming Argentina

[jblaze5779]

Argentina panicked for whatever reason and went into lockdown many months too early....maybe to impress the likes of WHO? Then they chose the worst possible time to relax the rules and now they're paying for it.
To be fair it was a tough call to make. I suspect no matter how they played it the outcome was inevitable.

They pulled this move to assist in the negotiations with the private debt holders.

"we can't pay you, we're on quarantine lockdown for the health of the people". If it were truly about health at all costs we'd still be under strict lockdown.

 

[Renzi]

They pulled this move to assist in the negotiations with the private debt holders.

"we can't pay you, we're on quarantine lockdown for the health of the people". If it were truly about health at all costs we'd still be under strict lockdown.

I don't buy that conspiracy theory. Most countries in the region went into lockdown around the same time, and it wasn't lifted after negotiations ended.

There are several reasons why we're not currently under a strict lockdown and in fact, it's being relaxed even more next week. The main one is that people have simply not been complying for the past few weeks, and police have not been enforcing it. Also, the lockdowns have had mixed outcomes in different countries, and the WHO and others who were pushing this response early into the pandemic weren't taking into account variables like local health care quality and testing capacity.

 

[BAHibs]

I try to refrain from armchair quarterbacking especially with this pandemic so I don't want to comment on whether the strategy was good or bad here, but it was always a mystery to me as to why Fernandez had to do his bi weekly "look at how bad everywhere else is performing compared to us" song and dance, no matter how well Argentina was battling the virus there is no reason for opening yourself up to potential ridicule if the tide turns which it appears to be doing.

 

[Dougie]

I recall reading an article last week looking at the total amount of deaths in Argentina this time last year versus now. Result, hardly a blip in the radar (presumably because there has been less fatalities from other causes due to lockdown and isolation measures.)
Those that it has killed in Argentina are remarkably similar in age, with a very small number of "young" people in absolute terms.

The current line of talk of many scientists seems to be that the virus burns through the weakest layers of the population in the first instances (those who are more likely to die from any serious sickness, even a bad flu that turns into pneumonia.) This is why hospitals and cemeteries in Spain / France etc. are not being overwhelmed as they were in the "first wave" despite having similar or higher case numbers in many countries. Death rates could be impacted by not being able to care or treat the patients efficiently as well as other factors regarding the general health of a population.
Of course, there are many more weaklings in these places for the virus still to reach which can still put an enormous strain on health systems - but if COVID does not touch them there are thousands of other things than can touch them just as bad, just over a more spread out period of time making their fates less noticeable.

It is fair to start to discuss and ask if all this fuss is really worth or if we overreacted.
Almost all of us gave it our full efforts and attention while it was still very new and we lacked perspective.
Don't get me wrong, if we can avoid getting it or passing it from simple hygiene and distancing measures to support the health system then we must do it, but we should also be conscious that "insanity is repeating the same actions expecting a different outcome each time."
For many people who do get sick it is hardly going to be fun few weeks off work, so the personal incentive is definitely there to act responsibly and minimise your risks. For older people to take precautions the incentive is infinitely higher. Therefore the role of the state and the individual needs to be a balanced one.

Overreacting in the beginning when you have incomplete information is actually the smart thing to do in my opinion. However, time has passed and now we have more information, experience from other countries, and the Argentine government hasn't adopted fast enough.

A small but largely inconsequential example is when they were having the whole debate about the "runners" and opening the parks. Outdoor transmission is exceedingly rare, and they still insisted on keeping parks closed and that the runners were at blame for the spike in the virus transmission.

Unfortunately here and most countries, politics taint every small decision that should just be made by applying common sense.

Now, we know that a vaccine may still be a year off, the economy and society simply can't cope with being locked down in their houses until a vaccine comes. As you wrote, we need to get back to normal, within reason, and learn how to live with this virus for the next couple years.

That is not to say it's not a serious threat especially for the elderly and that it's a plan by George Soros and Bill Gates to microchip us all.

 

[camberiu]

Maybe, but 130,000 deaths seems like a rough trade too. Few countries have done well managing this, and I do not count Brazil among them. Although, how to emerge from this crisis is something many countries clearly ignored so if Brazil gets back on its feet quicker, fair play. I guess it beats Argentina's road to ruin approach.

We were told early on by experts to expect at least 10 times more deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil by August, as the public health system was supposed to have been overwhelmed and collapsed due to a lack of imposition of hard lockdown.
Argentina was often pointed as an "example" to be followed. Fast forward to late September and the Heath system did not collapse. No Brazilian died due to lack of ventilators or access to ICU units, cases are on the decline and the country's economy is in recovery. Meanwhile the exemplary Argentina is seeing it's economy and society implode while it becomes the epicenter of cases despite a ruthless lockdown.

 

[semigoodlookin]

We were told early on by experts to expect at least 10 times more deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazil by August, as the public health system was supposed to have been overwhelmed and collapsed due to a lack of imposition of hard lockdown.
Argentina was often pointed as an "example" to be followed. Fast forward to late September and the Heath system did not collapse. No Brazilian died due to lack of ventilators or access to ICU units, cases are on the decline and the country's economy is in recovery. Meanwhile the exemplary Argentina is seeing it's economy and society implode while it becomes the epicenter of cases despite a ruthless lockdown.

I don't disagree really, my point was more however successful any country has been, it has come at a clear cost. I am certainly not advocating Argentina's handling of this.

 

[Alby]

Imagine how much worse it would be here if people weren't still wearing masks. I am actually quite surprised that just about everyone who passes by my window and who I see when I go out walking are still masked up. The self-discipline, at least on masks, is impressive.

It's way too early to start the post mortems/Monday quarterbacking, but I wonder how seriously people would have taken the whole thing if there hadn't been the shock and awe operation at the start. Without that, I suspect even I would not have been driven to adopt the precautions and habits I have since developed.

I have tended to argue that the virus is unstoppable because while it is abstract people will not take the threat seriously, and by the time it is no longer abstract, it is, almost by definition, already too late. One of the virtues of the approach here was that we were all taking it very seriously long before it really got here in any significant way.

If it, of course, very arguable that the harshest lockdown went on too long.

Anyway, I don't intend to relax at this point, or for the forseeable future. Even at the official CABA numbers of around 1000 cases per day, if that continues for another 12 months, one in ten residents will have been infected. If the official numbers are only half the actual rate, it will be one in five. If the official numbers are one-third correct, that is one in three. Sobering numbers.

 

[dsp27]

Greetings from Brasil ya'll. Everything here is open and running with protocols. When you enter a restaurant they hand you a sanitizer and some tables are "blocked" so distance is maintained. Everyone is wearing masks as they should. Even at the gym. I flew in a few weeks ago on business, no need to do any quarantine. Was asked both at check-in and at immigrations at Sao Paulo airport to provide a letter for a hlt insurance covering me in Brazil.

I think my friend who is an Argentine living in Brasil sums it up pretty well. He said. 'I don't like either Fernandez nor Bolsonaro (both a populists) but at least Bolsonaro says what he thinks and acts accordingly. Fernandez on the other hand is an unpredictable, cunning apparatchik greatly influenced (not to say controlled) by CFK". And we all know what her real agenda is.

 

[jblaze5779]

Imagine how much worse it would be here if people weren't still wearing masks. I am actually quite surprised that just about everyone who passes by my window and who I see when I go out walking are still masked up. The self-discipline, at least on masks, is impressive.

I noticed my apartment movers yesterday still sharing mate and all drinking out of the coca bottle. I see this often here.

 

[Alby]

The other thought that occurs to me is this: let's suppose that the whole thing turns out to have been greatly exagerated, an overreaction to the scenes of horror from places like Milan, Madrid, and New York. That in coming months the death rate falls even further below zero, and is even smaller amongst age cohorts under 70. That treatments continue to improve. That "long-termers" are comparatively few in number. That even second waves in the northern winter do not lead to overwhelmed health systems. If those things happen (I am not predicting they will, but they may), by the first anniversary of the major lockdowns in March next year, the pandemic will be something of a memory for most. The media will have become bored. Other major global issues will have emerged (like, for example, election chaos in the US). But there probably will still be no effective vaccine. What do the countries that are closed to the world, have had very little or no virus, but still live in fear of something the rest of the world has not only learned to live with but has more or less forgotten, do?