Fabulous article that details how Argentina went from Being the wealthiest country in world to now

[earlyretirement]

I came across this excellent read. I'm always amazed how Argentina went from being one of the wealthiest to this.

Argentina's Century-Long Decline

How and why Argentina went from being one of the richest countries to where we are now (and how stats do not always tell the whole story).

www.bowtiedmara.io

It's a good lesson for other countries too what can happen if they follow the same path.

 

[Ries]

To say the least, this article leaves out a lot of important facts.
It basically decided its ideological destination, and then omitted anything that didnt get it there.

The "conquest of the desert", for example, was, far from being "liberal" and "free market", genocide against the indigneous peoples, and a wholesale grab of their land.
And the idea that the same rich familes dont run things now, just like they always have, is somehow missing as well.
There were never big "land grants" to immigrants.
Then, as now, the vast majority of arable land is owned by the ultra wealthy.

Currently, 40% of arable land is owned by 1%, and 90% is owned by the top 11%.
And those same families are the ones who "bought" YPF from Menem, or Edenor and Edesur, or any of the other companies that were privatized, and at Putin type of prices.

Consider the "free market" aspects of the 1930s treaty with the British, which occured at the height of the Argentine Economy- a guaranteed 85% of exports of beef from Argentina would be from British owned packing plants, 15% for Argentine companies.

The game has always been fixed. It was never "free".

 

[earlyretirement]

To say the least, this article leaves out a lot of important facts.
It basically decided its ideological destination, and then omitted anything that didnt get it there.

The "conquest of the desert", for example, was, far from being "liberal" and "free market", genocide against the indigneous peoples, and a wholesale grab of their land.
And the idea that the same rich familes dont run things now, just like they always have, is somehow missing as well.
There were never big "land grants" to immigrants.
Then, as now, the vast majority of arable land is owned by the ultra wealthy.

Currently, 40% of arable land is owned by 1%, and 90% is owned by the top 11%.
And those same families are the ones who "bought" YPF from Menem, or Edenor and Edesur, or any of the other companies that were privatized, and at Putin type of prices.

Consider the "free market" aspects of the 1930s treaty with the British, which occured at the height of the Argentine Economy- a guaranteed 85% of exports of beef from Argentina would be from British owned packing plants, 15% for Argentine companies.

The game has always been fixed. It was never "free".

Would love to read your detailed analysis of the other side. I agree with the main premise of his Argentina which is Argentina used to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They screwed things up and now they are one of the poorest.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

Would love to read your detailed analysis of the other side. I agree with the main premise of his Argentina which is Argentina used to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world. They screwed things up and now they are one of the poorest.

....and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

 

[jantango]

 

[earlyretirement]

....and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

I'm not sure what his angle is. I don't know him. But I've read many of his articles and he is really intelligent and has a a lot of analysis of his posts. If you have detailed counter posts that paint another picture, please post them. Or take the time to analyze your hypothesis of what you believe caused Argentina's failures.


Also, I totally agree with you realtors that keep saying only to buy buy buy no matter the situation have been WRONG. The smartest money I know are people that started buying after the corralito. Then they road property prices up some up to 2 or 3 X the purchase price. Then many sold at the top of the market. And now that things are depressed again, they are going to start buying. Real estate is all about timing.

I know this topic well. I entered Argentina real estate at the very bottom. I road it all the way up and then dumped almost all of my properties. Real estate prices have been falling for 17 QUARTERS in a row. It may fall a little more. But nothing moves in straight lines forever. The cycles go up and down.

I did the same thing in the USA. Selling at the top and then exiting and waiting for things to crash and buying at the bottom. Now getting ready again to sell at the top and start the cycle over in Argentina.

 

[BAHibs]

It always amazes me coming back to this forum how many yanks hate their adopted country just like those of the Argentine right wing do.

It begs the question, why don't you all f@ck off back to the land of the free?

Ah..yes...your sh!tty social security payments couldn't cover a pot to p!ss in the US, whereas the adopted country you all seem to hate offers you a life you could only dream of in the "land of the free".

 

[earlyretirement]

It always amazes me coming back to this forum how many yanks hate their adopted country just like those of the Argentine right wing do.

It begs the question, why don't you all f@ck off back to the land of the free?

Ah..yes...your sh!tty social security payments couldn't cover a pot to p!ss in the US, whereas the adopted country you all seem to hate offers you a life you could only dream of in the "land of the free".

Actually I'd disagree with you. I don't think people hate their adopted country. They LOVE their home countries. Americans love the USA. It's just getting to the point it's not affordable for the masses and will get worse. In 5-10 years you're going to see Americans flocking USA and looking for more affordable places. Places like Argentina.

As well, the ones I know LOVE Argentina. They just don't like this shitty politics there and the broken system. They want to see things improve there. I totally agree with you the shitty Social Security payments won't cover anything. The average SS payment is only $1725 US dollars. You can't do anything with that in the USA. But in Argentina if you have a paid off place, you can live like a king.

Milei should do things like a Golden Visa program and many other measures. Argentina is a dream for retirees. And it will be in the future as well. Watch and see. These are people that will fall in love with Argentina as well. Many people want to see Argentina do really well and succeed. But it can't without systemic changes.

The most frustrated people are not people that "hate their adopted country" as you say. They really are passionate about and love Argentina and that's why they want to see it change so badly.

 

[Macanudo]

the 1930s treaty with the British, which occured at the height of the Argentine Economy-

With all due respect, I have to disagree with this statement. Where did you get the idea that the Argentine economy was at its peak during the Great Depression? According to Alejandro Bunge, in 1908 Argentina had reached the zenith of its progress, and the curve had begun its downward phase.

 

[earlyretirement]

....and I would find it really interesting to read articles written by people who don't have skin in the game: people like academics and researchers who are paid by their universities to analyse all the facts. If I understand Mr Mara's line of business correctly, he makes money whether markets are rising or falling - just so long as other people are in there.playing the game. A bit like real estate agents who are always claiming that now is the right time to be buying or selling property. And for a real estate agent, it always is.

See the smart money entered Argentina at the bottom around 2002. And then they exited in 2010 before the economy started bottoming out. And then they sold their real estate portfolios in Argentina in 2018-2019 at the absolute peak. Numbers don't lie. We are close to a bottom. It WILL go lower but it would be crazy and untrue to say money won't be made at the bottom. That's the best time to buy when there is blood in the streets.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when other's are fearful".