Fun Betting Pool: When will the next crisis hit Argentina?

[dr__dawggy]

I think the problem related to making predictions about when the next crisis may arrive is that this is coming largely from expats who probably have more money and financial cushion than most Argentenians. Thus, there is a sanctimonious air to it as if to say, "you poor souls will have to pick up the pieces, but I will basically be fine." After all, we had the luxury of choosing to move or expat ourselves here to Argentina. Most of them don't. The message is often different depending on who the messenger is.
As a gay person, my friends and I can joke around a bit and call each other "girls" or "fags" ,but if a straight person calls me that then well watch out cause I am going to get real "manly" real quick! Lol......Any approaching crisis is serious business; predictions are ok; but I am not sure it is something to really make fun of. Yet, my Argentine friends know that I am the first one to say, "THIS COUNTRY IS A DISASTER", but they also know my intentions are good and that should things get really ugly here or in the world, we will all take care of each other somehow. And that is an important point and distinction to be made. Ultimately, we will ALL be in this together.

Would you feel better if the question was: Which country will experience a crisis first--The US or Argentina? I do not find either prospect humorous, but both scenarios are plausible.

If the US Congress does not vote to extend the debt ceiling it will force the US to default on its sovereign debt, which will precipitate a crisis sooner rather than later.

We each cope in our own way with the idiocy of our governments...I joke about the stupidity of those in Washington as a coping mechanism. No harm intended...just a way of getting through our days as ominous events whirl around us over which we have little power.

May God have mercy on us all and deliver us from teminally stupid politicians.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

Would you feel better if the question was: Which country will experience a crisis first--The US or Argentina? I do not find either prospect humorous, but both scenarios are plausible.

If the US Congress does not vote to extend the debt ceiling it will force the US to default on its sovereign debt, which will precipitate a crisis sooner rather than later.

We each cope in our own way with the idiocy of our governments...I joke about the stupidity of those in Washington as a coping mechanism. No harm intended...just a way of getting through our days as ominous events whirl around us over which we have little power.

May God have mercy on us all and deliver us from teminally stupid politicians.

Amen - and let's include the UK and Ireland and all the other countries that are represented here on Baexpats. But this all comes back to the concept that if I say that my sister is a stupid whore, we can all laugh about it but if you say my sister is a stupid whore then I'll knock you down in the dust.

 

[dr__dawggy]

Amen - and let's include the UK and Ireland and all the other countries that are represented here on Baexpats. But this all comes back to the concept that if I say that my sister is a stupid whore, we can all laugh about it but if you say my sister is a stupid whore then I'll knock you down in the dust.

Agreed....

I gotta admit as much as I shake my head in wonder at the lunacy in Washington, I find myself getting a bit defensive when a foreigner criticizes my country. I can understand and respect Argentinos who react in the same way.

 

[jaredwb]

Would you feel better if the question was: Which country will experience a crisis first--The US or Argentina? I do not find either prospect humorous, but both scenarios are plausible.

If the US Congress does not vote to extend the debt ceiling it will force the US to default on its sovereign debt, which will precipitate a crisis sooner rather than later.

We each cope in our own way with the idiocy of our governments...I joke about the stupidity of those in Washington as a coping mechanism. No harm intended...just a way of getting through our days as ominous events whirl around us over which we have little power.

May God have mercy on us all and deliver us from teminally stupid politicians.

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! When the Congress decides NOT to extend the debt ceiling the US WITH NOT NOT NOT default on it's debt! For God's sake, enough with the bullshit and scare tactics!!

ALL it will mean, is that the US can't borrow more money!! That's it! We will still be taking in 2 Trillion in tax revenue that will be forced to go towards PAYING DOWN THE DEBT! (a GOOD thing).

It's like you calling your CC company and asking for a credit increase and they say no. Does that throw you into automatic default???? NO! All it does is make you change your spending and start paying down your own credit card.

 

[jaredwb]

It is quite evident that you don't have anyone who is really struggling. Otherwise you wouldn't post this nonsense.


One of the things that make out great people is that they know when to apologise. And Morgan do.

Wow, that's a load of crap! I don't know Morgan but I have enjoyed his posts. However, anyone apologizing to the likes of MarkSOC, etc is not great, just misguided.

Morgan, as I mentioned, I like you and found nothing offensive what-so-ever in your post. Again, don't take shit from anyone on this board, especially the commie, marxist, K-whores that run rampant.

 

[dr__dawggy]

WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! When the Congress decides NOT to extend the debt ceiling the US WITH NOT NOT NOT default on it's debt! For God's sake, enough with the bullshit and scare tactics!!

ALL it will mean, is that the US can't borrow more money!! That's it! We will still be taking in 2 Trillion in tax revenue that will be forced to go towards PAYING DOWN THE DEBT! (a GOOD thing).

It's like you calling your CC company and asking for a credit increase and they say no. Does that throw you into automatic default???? NO! All it does is make you change your spending and start paying down your own credit card.

Not even Fox News argues against raising the debt ceiling.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4649835/consequences-of-not-raising-the-debt-ceiling/

 

[John.St]

We will still be taking in 2 Trillion in tax revenue that will be forced to go towards PAYING DOWN THE DEBT! (a GOOD thing).

This is a common miscomprehension.

You can pay internal debts (e.g. owed by your government to someone in your own country) in your own currency, but not foreign debts - or else the simple solution would be to print more money.

If you pay a foreign debt in your own currency, you still owe the debt when the recipient wants to exchange your currency to their own currency.

You get your own money back but cannot honor your obligations in the foreign currency - e.g. you cannot settle an external debt to China in US$. If China no longer accepts US$ you'll need Renmibi (Yuans), gold or whatever they will accept.

Re. Germany 1923.

 

[syngirl]

Regardless as to the tastelessness of the title of this post, what it's missing fundamentally is the definition of "crisis" -- I think a lot of the people here think crisis will mean the moment they turn on their TVs and see people rioting in Chinos and attacking banks. But crises don't happen in one day, the last one here did not just happen overnight. So what, pray tell, is going to happen on the date you chose that will define it as Crisis as opposed to just hyperinflation and devaluation of the peso as we're basically already seeing now?

 

[MorganF]

I would suggest we could define a peso devaluation (as compared to the dollar) of X% over a period of Y days. For example, a peso dropping by 25% over the course of 90 days would, at the very least, be a crisis.

 

[jaredwb]

Not even Fox News argues against raising the debt ceiling.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4649835/consequences-of-not-raising-the-debt-ceiling/

Does Stuart Varney speak for all of Fox News now? I respect Varney and really like him, but I don't agree with him on this case and neither do a number of other Fox News contributors.

Either way, it's not going to be extended unless Obama and his cronies agree to massive cuts which again, would be a good thing.