DontMindMe
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I saw that the name of the site was The Market Oracle and stopped reading.
How an Economy Collapses
- Thread starter Arizona Guy
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Ries
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steveinbsas said:
by whom?
Every single reference I can find online says just over half that, at the most.
3.87%
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/currentinflation.asp
3.9%
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/10/19/us-inflation-september.html
3.8%
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
3.9%
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
I could go on, there are dozens more.
So- "reported"- well, what if I "report" that there is an army of socialist zombies heading out of Bahia Blanca right now, and they are coming to get you?
would that make it true?
Sorry, the US inflation rate, which has been edging up a bit lately, is still quite low, and, more importantly, the interest rate that the USA can borrow at is still virtually zero.
So "collapse", as juicy as it would be to watch- better than any zombie movie ever made- is actually pretty unlikely.
The only thing that could actually trigger a crisis big enough for a "collapse" is if the republicans continue to stonewall, and refuse to pay the obligations the USA already has- read "debt ceiling".
But that would be a totally artificial, partisan, ideological crisis, easily avoidable.
Well just in case Steve is right we can all be ready by watching this video by Russian optimist Dmitry Orlov.
Social Collapse, Best Practices
Social Collapse, Best Practices
steveinbsas
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Ries said:
I can hardly wait for your attack on my source, but this is what I happened to be reading just before I made the post about 7 percent inflation:
http://rvdailyreport.com/news/id/16123/producer-prices-rise-sharply-in-september
From the article:
"NEW YORK -- Producer prices rose 0.8 percent in September, much faster than market forecasts for a 0.2 percent increase, said Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist for RBC Economics Research.
This resulted in the year-over-year inflation rate rising to 6.9 percent from 6.5 percent in August."
Does the inflation rate of 3.9% include increases in the cost of food and fuel? If it omits either it is misleading, to say the least.
PS: The zombies are all in CF. if you don't believe me just ride the subte during rush hour or look at the folks waiting in line at the bank and grocery store.
Across the board inflation (not commodity based) in the US is pretty much directly related to the increase in the money supply and can be easily reigned in by an increase in the fed's lending interest rate. I'm not too worried about hyperinflation in the US anytime soon. Argentina on the other hand...
perry
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I have heard from a very well person in Argentina that what happened in 2001 here was a test for the coming events that will soon pass in Europe and the rest of the world soon . There will be a might currency crash in the coming year that will make 2001 Argentina a walk in the park.
Ries
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My "attack" consists of actually reading the reports from your source.
That is, from the Royal Bank Of Canada- not RV News. (RV news? really? is it better than Fox? should I start reading it daily?)
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/daily_e.html
If you read this, you will see that while one small part of the overall, producer prices, was indeed up to 6.9%, even your source says inflation for the USA is 3.9%-
On a year-over-year basis, the rate of increase in overall September CPI moved up slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% for the previous month. The annual increase in core prices remained unchanged at 2.0%.
thats a direct pull quote from YOUR source.
Anyway, I do not believe that the world economy, or the US dollar is going to collapse.
The linked article does not convince me, or, curiously enough, any actual economists.
But I am fully in support of becoming self sufficient. And not buying crap you dont need on credit, both on a personal level, and nationally.
That is, from the Royal Bank Of Canada- not RV News. (RV news? really? is it better than Fox? should I start reading it daily?)
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/daily_e.html
If you read this, you will see that while one small part of the overall, producer prices, was indeed up to 6.9%, even your source says inflation for the USA is 3.9%-
On a year-over-year basis, the rate of increase in overall September CPI moved up slightly to 3.9% from 3.8% for the previous month. The annual increase in core prices remained unchanged at 2.0%.
thats a direct pull quote from YOUR source.
Anyway, I do not believe that the world economy, or the US dollar is going to collapse.
The linked article does not convince me, or, curiously enough, any actual economists.
But I am fully in support of becoming self sufficient. And not buying crap you dont need on credit, both on a personal level, and nationally.
steveinbsas
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Ries said:
You are 100% correct. Does that make you happy?
You took the bait. That makes me happy.
Even if the 7 percent figure applies ONLY to producer prices, I believe the real rate of inflation in the US is well above 7% IF YOU INCLUDE THE COST OF FUEL AND FOOD.
How can anyone live without either of them?
I also believe that the real unemployment rate in the US is in the mid-teens..not the 'OFFICIAL' rate of just above 9%.
Economists cannot predict the future and some who currently have influence (like Paul Krugman) are loons. So were Obama's original economic team who made rosy predictions that never materialized.
It doesn't matter if you believe in something or not to make it a fact of reality.
For example, I recently read this:
The only thing that could actually trigger a crisis big enough for a "collapse" is if the republicans continue to stonewall, and refuse to pay the obligations the USA already has- read "debt ceiling".
But that would be a totally artificial, partisan, ideological crisis, easily avoidable.
This was written yesterday, in spite of the fact that the Republicans recently voted for an increase in the debt ceiling.
If that is the only thing that could trigger a collapse I daresay these words may come back to haunt the author as the US government continues to "buy" but not pay for so much crap, even though so many claim to need it.
At least the folks who have RV's will be able to gt away from the madding crowds...and perhaps survive the inevitable..at least for a while.
If and when the collapse happenss do you want to be in BA...OR ON YOUR OWN PRODUCTIVE LAND IN THE USA (if you can defend it)?
Is it really worth the risk to stay where you are now if the Republicans are the only ones who can trigger the collapse with a simple vote? After they gain control of both houses of congress and the presidency in 2012 do you think they will continue to increase the debt ceiling?
I doubt it...and I doubt it will lead to a collapse, either.
If they continue the insane spending and continue to raise the debt ceiling (something Obama opposed when he was a Senator and Bush was President), the collapse will be inevitable.
At least George Soros will be happy.
*SF_2_BA* said:
The US dollar is still pretty much the strongest currency in the world. Unless you're one of those "the end of all fiat currency is coming (its not)" nut cases, that means I wouldn't overly worry about kaputting of the US Dollar. Certainly not nearly as much as I'd worry about the kaputting of the peso which actually seems to be a reasonable possibility.
If you want to be really sure keep all your non liquid assets in real producing assets aka businesses, farms, tin foil production (a booming new textile industry I tell you), etc.
