How far will the downturn be in Argetina?

[Stanexpat]

There's also a rumor in the blogosphere -- purportedly based on a recent Russian foreign ministry report -- that the US authorities are bracing themselves for a summer of riots and demos in the USA.

There has also been stories about the Amero which you are probably aware of. The wackiest one I heard is that there are Chinese troops in California, threatening homeowners to pay-up on their mortgages(as the Chinese are holders of the debt).

 

[steveinbsas]

The coming summer riots will be the prelude to the breakup of the USA in 2010, which has been predicted by Russian academic Igor Panarin.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

 

[ghost]

It's a question of leadership and vision. Argentina has none. Brazil has allot. So Argentina's fall will not cover as great of a distance as some 1st world countries however it is likely to fall deeper and more slowly. And have a more difficult time recovering.

 

[criswkh]

Soulskier-I like your analogy. Stanley...your link didn't mention Argentina and Argentina was downgraded from "emerging markets". See...they can only go up. I still would prefer to live here than the the States, because the sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet...but it is piling up.
In South American Brazil seems to be the one with more power.

 

[syngirl]

I read the same article as Stan the other day -- it's an interview with Niall Ferguson, good read.

Re:

My friends/family from the States keep asking me how Argentina is doing with the recession. I keep telling them we are not having massive layoffs like the States. Since most people use CASH there is not much of a credit issue.

1. There haven't been so many layoffs because a) there's only a 10th of the population here so not as many people to fire in the first place! (Although Canada with a similar population has lost something like 100,000 jobs so far) b) most companies are waiting until the next quarter to announce layoffs. The auto industry is shut down here essentially, workers have been on reduced hours since December. Most large companies here are going to be announcing layoffs in March/April -- everyone I know has already said that their company is going to be cutting back on staff.

2. Cash is king here, but don't forget the whole system of paying in Cuotas. When you go to buy your item, you put a certain portion down, then pay the rest in cuotas. I'm assuming that if you don't pay out the rest of your cuotas Fravega, or whoever you bought from, has the right to repossess your items. So while people may buy their houses with cash, they buy their LCD TVs, A/Cs, Fridges, Washer/Dryers, Computers, Furniture, Groceries, all the way to a pair of underwear in cuotas. So assuming repossession is the result of non-payment, a lot of people won't be losing their house, just all the stuff in it! Not the worst thing if you ask me, just like in the States, way too many people here buy stuff before they really can afford it -- the number of people buying 5, 6, and 7000 peso LCDs just doesn't compute with the number of people that actually make the salary to pay for them.

Can anyone clarify if that is the result of non-payment? It seems like many locals do buy everything on credit, they just don't think of it that way because they call it cuotas... but the fact is if you don't pay for it 100%, it's still on credit to me.

 

[syngirl]

See...they can only go up.

LOL!! Are you SERIOUS?? Only go UP??

 

[bigbadwolf]

The coming summer riots will be the prelude to the breakup of the USA in 2010, which has been predicted by Russian academic Igor Panarin.

There's been rioting in many European countries -- Greece, Latvia, France. British workers have been demonstrating against the use of foreign workers and the British government is bracing itself for riots in summer. So it's plausible there will be riots in summer in the USA -- it would be a wonder if there were not. About the breakup of the USA, I can't and won't say anything. Gerard Celente is another prophet of doom and you can catch a few videos of him on YouTube.

 

[Stanexpat]

Soulskier-I like your analogy. Stanley...your link didn't mention Argentina and Argentina was downgraded from "emerging markets". See...they can only go up. I still would prefer to live here than the the States, because the sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet...but it is piling up.
In South American Brazil seems to be the one with more power.

I think Argentina could be the Brazil of South America. It has lots of assets both in it's people and resources. The only thing holding it back is governments like they currently have. Hopefully the people will wake up one day and demand better governance.

 

[jp]

"Demographic superiority favours those least likely to advance society"

 

[reiver]

The coming summer riots will be the prelude to the breakup of the USA in 2010, which has been predicted by Russian academic Igor Panarin.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

Hasn't the gov in California effectively created it's own currency with its IOU's?! I remember reading that the gov in California was negotiating with banks to accept them.

Seems like a step in the direction of a defacto break up of the USA.

Here's another map of a possible divide up of the USA...

http://paradoxoff.com/divided-states-of-america.html