Inflation Dollar Question

Looks like the market predicts that the dollar will be around 17 by the end of the year. If that is the case and inflation does reach 30-35% this place will just keep getting more expensive in dollar terms. As an example I reckon a kilo of helado at Freddo will be close to 20 bucks by December which would be insane.

http://www.barchart....tine_Peso/AAF16

Fredo is currently $250 pesos a kilo or $18 dollars in Argentina.

In Uruguay it is 460 pesos or $14.83 dollars
(pedidos ya)

Can't find prices currently but in March last year it was:
6,400 chilean pesos a kilo or 9 dollars.
https://web.archive....ochile.com/menu

Freddo usa currently has a "Quart" for $22 dollars, it's apparently imported from Argentina.
http://quickfoxes.co...s-delivery.html
 
If you make further devaluation, prices will go even more up, since the economy here is heavily dollarized. I understand expats with bunch of dollars to change being happy about it, but many people are paying this overpriced products with third world salaries already... If dollar tomorrow is 19,you split my salary on half in less than 2 months. Even if I may be lazy worker, I still have to live...

The Dollar in January 27 2014 was $12.90 pesos today 2 years later is $14...! or 7.8 % in 2 years....! :eek:

A word of caution locals paid in pesos that are Unionized have received yearly increases over 30 % like the banking sectors, truckers, Subte, etc. Unionized Locals paid in pesos are better OFF than an expat on a fixed dollar income... :mad:

http://www.ambito.co...info/?ric=ARSB=
 
Rich, isn't that good news?

With all respect, where in the world is it considered healthy if unionized locals are NOT better off than the average immigrant?


Good news for the Unionized Workers.. :)
I was just trying to discredit the generalized Misconception that Expats with a fixed dollar income are better off than all Locals... Not True.

YES---Better off than the non-Union workers and the workers in NEGRO (30%) :cool:

Amen
 
Macri is letting the peso float now - as i understand it he's not making adjustments and trying to keep it at a "reasonable value" like Cristina was trying to do. It's the market that's setting the price. I don't think he's spent a centavo or a dollar to try to influence the market (well, the Central Bank, not Macri personally or as executive).

The market is the market - absent other influences (like a bat-crazy she-devil in the Pink House, for example) the value is what people/countries/businesses will pay, for the most part, in conversion. Absent inflation caused by too many pesos on the market, prices will eventually stabilize and in some cases (though probably not with most imports) go down. With dollar investments coming into the country (which get converted to pesos and the dollars stored in the central bank, or spent as currency if people accept it), the value of the peso should hold (at least, I believe that's a large part of what Macri's trying to do).

The peso hasn't stabilized because there is a lot of uncertainty still. The spike in inflation was caused in a large part by people raising prices in fear - a left-over form good ol' Cristina's doom-saying over what would happen if the Dictator Macri gets into power. At some point that unreal raising of prices has to settle - a product is worth what it's worth and absent inflation some of the prices (at least locally-produced like food and other items that don't depend too much on exports) should come down. Keep in mind, one of the reasons to sell food, for example, out of the country, is that Argentina has a lot of farmland and capacity (which Cristina managed to shut down), but the prices they are going to export for can't be too crazy because it's wholesale, and if they raise the prices too much on exports and don't want to sell locally because of this, no one will buy internationally either (or at least not as much). It's not like Argentina has a corner on the commodities market after all.

At least that's how it seems to me. If Macri is successful in defeating inflation by making the country more investment-worthy and productive, inflation should come down. Macri is shooting for 20-25% inflation by the end of the year. I'm betting the official rate will be closer to 16 than to 17 by the end of the year and we will see prices begin to stabilize. But things will still be expensive.
 
It will be tough for expats irrespective if you have USD or not...

Already fibertel, building expenses, ABL have significantly shot up in Jan.

In a way its true..the locals will have it better than the expats!!!! wow!
 
Ríes put it quite good about dollar and inflation,and ElQueso also on other aspects.

I'm unionised worker and my salary can buy me today less dollars (and most other things) as it could 3 years ago by official rate plus different %. Because we could buy dollars, usually quite enough for average Argentinian. Of course we know that was not real rate, but all economy here is a weird. If you look at normal Argentinian, they are hardly rich. Putting them in poverty overnight would be for sure worse for Argentina than to play with numbers for some years. If Argentina supported former lunatic for so many years, can also survive smoother transition.

Of course there are many overpaid people in this country, but on the other side majority lives what average expat spends for school of the child or maid. Nothing wrong with that, but bitching about how hard life is for expats and that dollar should skyrocket is a bit unhygienic...
 
I am an expat and I do not have a maid. I also do not earn a fortune but just so happen to earn my money in dollars. I dont think its bitching to hope that the dollar rate keeps pace with inflation this year.
 
Our ABL went from 3300 to 4500 this year. The dollar didn't keep up with that!


My ARBA (same as ABL in BA) invoice arrived yesterday and was almost the same as last year: $1257 pesos for 5848 sq. mtrs. of land and 250 sq. mtrs. of covered construction (150 sq. mtrs for the house and 100 sq. mtrs. for the galpon). This is the third year the tax has been about the same.

The invoice for the lot of 5848 sq. mtrs. in back (with no construction) will arrive in April. It increased significantly last year to about $350 pesos and I don't expect it to increase much this year.
 
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