Ries
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Another factor that is entirely unknown at this point is whether Macri can make a deal with the vultures.
If he can, it will enable him to borrow internationally- and this is distinct from external investment, and would be yet another influx of dollars/euros into the economy.
If he can again issue Argentine Government bonds, his ability to do many things, including placate Unions, would change, and all kinds of cascading effects would hit the economy.
Plus, the psychological effects of what Macri does or does not do are pretty unpredictable.
There is a HUGE amount of dollars, both here in cash, and abroad in various forms, in the hands of Argentinia's wealthy, and even upper middle class.
If the mood improves, and, for instance, more of the guys like the guys who own Burger 54, or Kentucky's, or Starbucks, decide to invest, that can mean big changes.
We have seen a lot of local investment in the last few years- even with the surface complaints against the K's, the actual money people here have been expanding big in retail, in new apartment buildings, in hotels, in restaurants. These all generate jobs, cash flow, and, in many cases, gentrification of neighborhoods that bring more change and jobs in their wake.
There used to be two Kentucky's, for example. Across from the street from each other, on Santa Fe. Suddenly, there are 30+. Somebody decided that bankrolling this was a safe investment, better than buying another condo or two in Miami Beach.
If the general feeling among people with money continues like this, this will also effect the dollar/peso rate.
It aint cheap to build 20 starbucks. And that is all local money- its a franchise here, unlike pretty much everywhere else in the world.
There is a LOT of local money under mattresses. And a lot of it is in dollars.
If he can, it will enable him to borrow internationally- and this is distinct from external investment, and would be yet another influx of dollars/euros into the economy.
If he can again issue Argentine Government bonds, his ability to do many things, including placate Unions, would change, and all kinds of cascading effects would hit the economy.
Plus, the psychological effects of what Macri does or does not do are pretty unpredictable.
There is a HUGE amount of dollars, both here in cash, and abroad in various forms, in the hands of Argentinia's wealthy, and even upper middle class.
If the mood improves, and, for instance, more of the guys like the guys who own Burger 54, or Kentucky's, or Starbucks, decide to invest, that can mean big changes.
We have seen a lot of local investment in the last few years- even with the surface complaints against the K's, the actual money people here have been expanding big in retail, in new apartment buildings, in hotels, in restaurants. These all generate jobs, cash flow, and, in many cases, gentrification of neighborhoods that bring more change and jobs in their wake.
There used to be two Kentucky's, for example. Across from the street from each other, on Santa Fe. Suddenly, there are 30+. Somebody decided that bankrolling this was a safe investment, better than buying another condo or two in Miami Beach.
If the general feeling among people with money continues like this, this will also effect the dollar/peso rate.
It aint cheap to build 20 starbucks. And that is all local money- its a franchise here, unlike pretty much everywhere else in the world.
There is a LOT of local money under mattresses. And a lot of it is in dollars.
