Local Stock Market

[nikad]

Nikad:

Did you have to use or broker or can you buy them direct inline through say an ETrade or Charles Schwab type account?

I must admit I am not as familiar with the bond market (price v. yield gets me dizzy), but I am looking or something that perhaps a steady rise and ok dividend (like utility stocks) Of course i guess thats what everyone looks for. But I am not adverse to some volatility which I am sure the Argentine market offers...

You have to use a local broker. I am using Rava that has been doing business for 50 years. Look at tvpp/tvpy. They are warrants technically.

 

[davonz]

I must admit I am not as familiar with the bond market (price v. yield gets me dizzy).

Isnt hard to understand. If you buy a 10 year $100 bond with a return of 10%, you get $10 a year return for 10 years, plus your $100 back at the end of it (hopefully).
But if those $100 bonds drop for some reason, worry about the economy of the country that issued them, or company, say by 50%, so they are being sold for $50, it means your return/yield is now 20% as the underlying bond still pays out the $10 a year for 10 years - provided the country/company doesnt default.

Some arg gov bonds (if not all) are inflation indexed.. so they might have a return of 5% + inflation, so if inflation is 5% your return should be 10%. Thats why the gov has understated inflation here, keeps their bond interest payments down from what i have been told..

 

[nikad]

Whats is the coupon value and interest rate on these - and when are they due ?

I understand that they had dropped alot due to worries of argentinas economy, so you must have bought at the right time..

http://www.ravaonline.com/v2/empresas/perfil.php?e=TVPP

http://www.ravaonline.com/v2/empresas/perfil.php?e=TVPY

 

[nikad]

Isnt hard to understand. If you buy a 10 year $100 bond with a return of 10%, you get $10 a year return for 10 years, plus your $100 back at the end of it (hopefully).
But if those $100 bonds drop for some reason, worry about the economy of the country that issued them, or company, say by 50%, so they are being sold for $50, it means your return/yield is now 20% as the underlying bond still pays out the $10 a year for 10 years.

Some arg gov bonds (if not all) are inflation indexed.. so they might have a return of 5% + inflation, so if inflation is 5% your return should be 10%. Thats why the gov has understated inflation here, keeps their bond interest payments down from what i have been told..

These are not inflation indexed but pay for 25 years IF the GDP grows over 3.25% ( will pay on the excess ) The estimated for this year is around 9%, next year is so far estimated over 4.5%

 

[davonz]

These are not inflation indexed but pay for 25 years IF the GDP grows over 3.25% ( will pay on the excess ) The estimated for this year is around 9%, next year is so far estimated over 4.5%

Has there been any years when GDP hasnt reached 3.25% in the last few years ?

 

[nikad]

Has there been any years when GDP hasnt reached 3.25% in the last few years ?

http://www.indec.gov.ar/principal.asp?id_tema=2551

http://www.indec.gov.ar/nuevaweb/cuadros/17/graficoevolpib.xls

 

[jjsto]

Hi all. I have a local account and I buy and sell stocks here sometimes. I thought some random observations might be useful:

1) If you purchased GDP warrants, those are not regular bonds. In my opinion, to "invest" in those you should be a somewhat sophisticated investor who a) is comofortable pricing long term options, and b) has a good understanding of how local and eurobonds for an "emerging" country perform in different economic scenarios. Investing in Argentinian GDP linked warrants is a completely different activity from investing in regular US bonds.

2) Researching stocks on the local market can be very tricky. The disclosure requirements are minimal and there is very little information available. There is also very little volume for the majority of listed companies. It is easier to start out by looking at companies with listed ADRs in the US, since they follow US reporting requirements.

3) Pretty much anything purchased in the aftermath of the crisis here has performed well, as almost all "asset classes" have gone up from mid 2008 together. To get similar results over the next two years will probably be more challenging.

 

[BSS]

I have bought them but am not going to sell them for now. You do not pay any taxes if you operate local bonds. The ones I bought have gone +118% this year ( in pesos ) and the same ones in usd have gone up by +82%. I do not think there is any stock out there that can beat them atm

I work in finance here in BA and do have a small percentage of my assets in the BASE for diversification, but like you, I have found a higher return on public bonds.

I've had more success with the Chilean and Brazilian stock market. Although, I've only been investing for a few years and I'm in it for the long run, so my goals might be different that yours.

I use Citibank for my international brokerage needs and Zecco in the United States.

 

[nikad]

I work in finance here in BA and do have a small percentage of my assets in the BASE for diversification, but like you, I have found a higher return on public bonds.

I've had more success with the Chilean and Brazilian stock market. Although, I've only been investing for a few years and I'm in it for the long run, so my goals might be different that yours.

I use Citibank for my international brokerage needs and Zecco in the United States.

I am not a day trader, so I try to make mid/long term investments. I am watching some Chilean and Brazilian ETFs. I think locally bonds are the most profitable, but you have to watch them closely ( due to politics, etc ).

 

[ghost]

I am not a day trader, so I try to make mid/long term investments. I am watching some Chilean and Brazilian ETFs. I think locally bonds are the most profitable, but you have to watch them closely ( due to politics, etc ).

Your guide on this adventure is a good one [RAVA] you may also check out Latin Bonos [also very good] Ask for Juan Pablo.
If you are up 118% I would suggest liquidating 50%. Profit is always good and any time you take it, it is still profit. AR bonds have gained some favor with the local big money this year and for some good reasons too. Keep in mind that these guys control large buys and you could get crushed before the media even smells blood. [or the broker].
I have tread lightly in the the AR bond market because I'm not comfortable with my level of control and research is very difficult and not at all transparent compared to public companies and stock etc. However, you mentioned that you are looking at latin ETFs. Dangerous territory indeed. You cannot even be careful or do the proper DD. But if you like casinos, it's a thrill. Good luck.