Looking for my (contrarian) Tribe

[Alfred_Arnold]

And if it's below $100,000 in 5 years, I'll eat crow!

John McAfee (RIP) would raise the stakes a bit on that one.

 

[Reply Guy]

Just because you don't find value in a global, private, decentralized monetary system, doesn't mean to it goes up for no reason. Assets with marketcaps of $450B don't get moved because of an Instagram influencer.

The investors and tech entrepreneurs who brought you Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter, Square, Shopify, Mercadolibre, Uber, Paypal, the list goes on are building infrastructure around BTC and ETH. Are people like Steve Wozniak, Eric Schmidt, Jack Dorsey just wanting to pump and dump?

Anyone who bought since 2009 save the last 6 months is up on their investment.

 

[perry]

Just because you don't find value in a global, private, decentralized monetary system, doesn't mean to it goes up for no reason. Assets with marketcaps of $450B don't get moved because of an Instagram influencer.

The investors and tech entrepreneurs who brought you Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter, Square, Shopify, Mercadolibre, Uber, Paypal, the list goes on are building infrastructure around BTC and ETH. Are people like Steve Wozniak, Eric Schmidt, Jack Dorsey just wanting to pump and dump?

Anyone who bought since 2009 save the last 6 months is up on their investment.

There is a huge change happening in the world now and the only assets that will have any physical worth in a few years are those you can hold and touch real assets . Land that can provide you with food and water and safety from a rapidly changing world . Investing in Bitcoin is a very risky investment for anyone right now . Of course when it first came out investing then was a small risk as for very little money you had a store of wealth , Now Bitcoin is US$ 23,000 and very volatile . Yes it may go up tomorrow 25% but also it may go down next week 50% . Its a severe roller coaster ride that has finished its trajectory . Betting on Bitcoin now is like roulette seeing 20 reds in a row and thinking that red will continue to come up . By the end of 2023 it will be worthless imho . I may be wrong but I am willing to leave this on the public record here .

 

[Quilombo]

The investors and tech entrepreneurs who brought you Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter, Square, Shopify, Mercadolibre, Uber, Paypal, the list goes on are building infrastructure around BTC and ETH. Are people like Steve Wozniak, Eric Schmidt, Jack Dorsey just wanting to pump and dump?

Blockchain/Web3 ≠ cryptocurrency, let's not confuse people with this. Blockchain technology will be good for things like digital IDs,
authenticating documents for ownership like mortgages or leases, patents, anti-piracy, etc. which is what these people and companies
are investing in; they're not buying bitcoin or "shitcoins" to hold and hope to make a triple digit+ profit on a speculative investment like
90% of people that invest in BTC/ETH are.

Do I think most crypto currencies are a pump and dump scheme? Yes. Do I think people should "invest" in BTC or other crypto currencies?
No. Do I like gambling? Yes. Have I made money buying BTC low and selling high? Yes. Do I recommend it? Not anymore than you're willing
to gamble on hand of blackjack.

Cryptocurrencies suffer from the same problem fiat currencies do, and technolibertarian dudebros hate admitting this: crypto has no intrinsic
value, just like fiat currencies. People have faith in a currency, crypto or otherwise, until they don't. Whether Luna or the Austral, an asset's value
is greatly determined by its ability to be easily liquidated in to tangible assets, and other peoples willingness to accept it, and for crypto that is it's ability to be converted in to fiat currencies (hell, even look at businesses that "accept" crypto, they do like they accept another currency, i.e. by converting it to USD, not having fixed prices in BTC unless we're talking about successors to the silk road). Once it no longer possible to do this,
its base value goes from the market determined rate of x, to 0.

 

[lunar]

But it's not an investment. And it's not a store of value. It's a wild casino rollercoaster ride ...

It is an investment. It is not tangible, but it is an investment. Like a company that holds intellectual property patents.

Decentralized finance has certain advantages. Nobody can seize your money, or prevent you from sending/receiving. I think people in many parts of the world are worried about this after recent developments.

Besides, with acceptance of the lightning network, people will be paying in bitcoins everywhere. No more credit card transaction fees.

So, essentially, you are investing in a new technology that will eventually make traditional banks and payment systems obsolete.

And I don't get it, when a household name like Target drops 25% in a day, nobody even blinks. When bitcoin drops 15%, everybody immediately starts talking about crazy volatility. Why?

By the end of 2023 it will be worthless imho . I may be wrong but I am willing to leave this on the public record here .

Why don't you sell bitcoin futures instead?

 

[Reply Guy]

Blockchain/Web3 ≠ cryptocurrency, let's not confuse people with this. Blockchain technology will be good for things like digital IDs,
authenticating documents for ownership like mortgages or leases, patents, anti-piracy, etc. which is what these people and companies
are investing in; they're not buying bitcoin or "shitcoins" to hold and hope to make a triple digit+ profit on a speculative investment like
90% of people that invest in BTC/ETH are.

Do I think most crypto currencies are a pump and dump scheme? Yes. Do I think people should "invest" in BTC or other crypto currencies?
No. Do I like gambling? Yes. Have I made money buying BTC low and selling high? Yes. Do I recommend it? Not anymore than you're willing
to gamble on hand of blackjack.

Cryptocurrencies suffer from the same problem fiat currencies do, and technolibertarian dudebros hate admitting this: crypto has no intrinsic
value, just like fiat currencies. People have faith in a currency, crypto or otherwise, until they don't. Whether Luna or the Austral, an asset's value
is greatly determined by its ability to be easily liquidated in to tangible assets, and other peoples willingness to accept it, and for crypto that is it's ability to be converted in to fiat currencies (hell, even look at businesses that "accept" crypto, they do like they accept another currency, i.e. by converting it to USD, not having fixed prices in BTC unless we're talking about successors to the silk road). Once it no longer possible to do this,
its base value goes from the market determined rate of x, to 0.

Most crypto currencies are dog sh*t, I agree. Like in the tech bubble of 2000 - many companies were overvalued and went to zero.

There are companies and individuals are listed above that are buying Bitcoin - Wozniak, Dorsey, Tim Cook, Eric Schmidt, Thiel, Tesla, Square - all own Bitcoin. There are many more.

The infrastructure is being built on Bitcoin and Ethereum, not some IBM Blockchain product.

Square is already building out an authentication project on Bitcoin - https://developer.tbd.website/projects/web5/

Deloitte is using Avalanche (Ethereum competitor) to launch a platform to help with federal emergency funding. - https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pag...cal-government-natural-disaster-recovery.html

Stripe, Draft Kings, and Instagram are integrating with Polygon (Ethereum Sidechain).

Solana Pay is a product built on top of Solana that is looking to disrupt credit card payments. They average processor takes 3% or so, and this network would take fractions of a penny. - https://solanapay.com/

All of these networks have tokens. Will some go to zero? Absolutely. However, is it all a big scam that has no utility? I don't think so, and I believe the winners will return big. I think to dismiss the whole sector as being worthless is crazy.

I also see Argentine assets appreciating over the next 10 - 15 years, due to demographics, shale, lithium, food and a coming commodity super cycle, so I may be the crazy one!!

 

[Reply Guy]

It is an investment. It is not tangible, but it is an investment. Like a company that holds intellectual property patents.

Decentralized finance has certain advantages. Nobody can seize your money, or prevent you from sending/receiving. I think people in many parts of the world are worried about this after recent developments.

Besides, with acceptance of the lightning network, people will be paying in bitcoins everywhere. No more credit card transaction fees.

So, essentially, you are investing in a new technology that will eventually make traditional banks and payment systems obsolete.

And I don't get it, when a household name like Target drops 25% in a day, nobody even blinks. When bitcoin drops 15%, everybody immediately starts talking about crazy volatility. Why?



Why don't you sell bitcoin futures instead?

Well said. Netflix dropped 75% YTD. Many have a knee jerk reaction to Bitcoin / cryptocurrency because of the way the media has framed it.

Early on the internet was framed as a joke as well. 60 minutes laughed at Bezos and his online bookstore.

 

[FrankPintor]

Just because you don't find value in a global, private, decentralized monetary system, doesn't mean to it goes up for no reason. Assets with marketcaps of $450B don't get moved because of an Instagram influencer.

The investors and tech entrepreneurs who brought you Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter, Square, Shopify, Mercadolibre, Uber, Paypal, the list goes on are building infrastructure around BTC and ETH. Are people like Steve Wozniak, Eric Schmidt, Jack Dorsey just wanting to pump and dump?

Anyone who bought since 2009 save the last 6 months is up on their investment.

You have the argument backwards: it's not "Just because you don't find value in a global, private, decentralized monetary system, doesn't mean to it goes up for no reason", but, because it goes up (and down) for no reason, I find no value in it.

Just to debunk some of the myths you're pushing:

• Bitcoin isn't really private: https://www.science.org/content/article/why-criminals-cant-hide-behind-bitcoin
• It's also not really decentralized: https://medium.com/hackernoon/guess-what-bitcoin-isnt-decentralized-ecab67de653d
• And yes, tweets can move Bitcoin by 20% for no rational reason: https://decrypt.co/56598/study-shows-elon-musk-influences-bitcoin-and-dogecoin-prices

And when any of this is pointed out to the Bitcoin evangelists, they come back, not with rational argument, but Steve Wozniak! Eric Schmidt! Jack Dorsey! Peter Thiel! Elon Musk! as if what any of these millionaires do with their ice-cream money is in any way relevant to normal life.

Oh, and I see someone came along to argue semantics, how cute. From Investopedia, "How Is an Investment Different from a Bet or Gamble?
In an investment, you are providing some individual or entity with funds to be put to work growing a business, starting new projects, or maintaining day-to-day revenue generation. Investments, while they can be risky, have a positive expected return. Gambles, on the other hand, are based on chance and not putting money to work. Gambles are highly risky and also have a negative expected return in most cases (e.g., at a casino)". With Bitcoin, you're at the casino.

I can see potential uses for the blockchain, though given the power consumption problems it's not very suitable for a lot of applications in the internet of things, small low power devices and wearables that may need to live on a battery for 5-10 years. For Bitcoin in particular, due to the high transaction time and poor scalability, not to mention that it also fails as a store of value, perhaps trying to use it for financial transactions was the worst possible use case. The problems should have been obvious since the beginning, but the hype and evangelism obscures everything.

Did I mention that Binance had stopped all Bitcoin extractions? https://www.infobae.com/economia/20...-bitcoin-y-el-rol-de-la-polemica-red-celsius/

 

[Reply Guy]

You have the argument backwards: it's not "Just because you don't find value in a global, private, decentralized monetary system, doesn't mean to it goes up for no reason", but, because it goes up (and down) for no reason, I find no value in it.

Just to debunk some of the myths you're pushing:

• Bitcoin isn't really private: https://www.science.org/content/article/why-criminals-cant-hide-behind-bitcoin
• It's also not really decentralized: https://medium.com/hackernoon/guess-what-bitcoin-isnt-decentralized-ecab67de653d
• And yes, tweets can move Bitcoin by 20% for no rational reason: https://decrypt.co/56598/study-shows-elon-musk-influences-bitcoin-and-dogecoin-prices

And when any of this is pointed out to the Bitcoin evangelists, they come back, not with rational argument, but Steve Wozniak! Eric Schmidt! Jack Dorsey! Peter Thiel! Elon Musk! as if what any of these millionaires do with their ice-cream money is in any way relevant to normal life.

Oh, and I see someone came along to argue semantics, how cute. From Investopedia, "How Is an Investment Different from a Bet or Gamble?
In an investment, you are providing some individual or entity with funds to be put to work growing a business, starting new projects, or maintaining day-to-day revenue generation. Investments, while they can be risky, have a positive expected return. Gambles, on the other hand, are based on chance and not putting money to work. Gambles are highly risky and also have a negative expected return in most cases (e.g., at a casino)". With Bitcoin, you're at the casino.

I can see potential uses for the blockchain, though given the power consumption problems it's not very suitable for a lot of applications in the internet of things, small low power devices and wearables that may need to live on a battery for 5-10 years. For Bitcoin in particular, due to the high transaction time and poor scalability, not to mention that it also fails as a store of value, perhaps trying to use it for financial transactions was the worst possible use case. The problems should have been obvious since the beginning, but the hype and evangelism obscures everything.

Did I mention that Binance had stopped all Bitcoin extractions? https://www.infobae.com/economia/20...-bitcoin-y-el-rol-de-la-polemica-red-celsius/

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree Frank, but I'll just clarify some points that I was trying to make.

1. Of course Bitcoin isn't anonymous. It's an open ledger. Private in the sense that it's not control by a government.

2. That decentralized article is written by an Ethereum developer now in jail for fraud. Not one actor can control more than 51% of the network, if it could it would be attacked and taken down already.

3. It might shock you that the stocks can be moved by tweets by Elon Musk and that stocks can go up and down for no reason. See - Soros and reflexivity.

- I mention the people that invested and built the current tech products and software we use everyday to make a point that if those people are also investing in and building in web3/ web5, maybe they see value there.

- Most networks are already proof of stake. Ethereum is moving there soon. Lightning Network is being developed to solve scalability problem for Bitcoin. What does low power wearables have to do with the energy consumption that Bitcoin miners need to expend to validate transactions?

As I said before, holding your coins on a centralized service like Binance or Celsius is a horrible idea.

 

[lunar]

Gambles, on the other hand, are based on chance and not putting money to work. Gambles are highly risky and also have a negative expected return in most cases (e.g., at a casino)". With Bitcoin, you're at the casino.

When you play poker before the game you have table, cards, chips and some people with money. After the game you have the same table, the same cards and chips and people with money distributed in a different way (and some money that went to the house). This is gambling. No new value is created.

In case of the bitcoin, at the beginning there was nothing. And now there is something that can potentially replace such valuable companies as JPMorgan, Western Union and Visa with necessary infrastructure and processes in place. And it works (well, there is always place for improvement). There is a value in all this. It is just not attributed to a corporation.