Malvinas Spat ( United Kindgom beating war drums )

[tangobob]

A less intransigent position by Argentina may be good and reasonable, but what does Argentina has to win by giving up the falklands, nothing. And not just that, by giving up the islands argentina would be also accepting British presence in Antartica, which is a latent conflict. No, Argentina will never give up the islands.

Right now Britain has no reason to negotiate with argentina, we have nothig to offer to them. But we do have time and geography on our favour. On the other hand, keeping the islands has been expensive for Britain for most of the time (except in the last decade were the islands economy has been doing really good).

As Esllou said "If argentina had just bided their time, I'm pretty certain the falklands would now be in their hands or at least under shared control." I think this is true.
What Argentina has to gain is trade, The UK is too far away to gain from any minerals excavated, the people of the islands would gain far more by trading with Argentina. Argentina, of course, would then gain from the trade and the landing of any oil (if it is actually found)

The only reason the economy of the islands has been good is because of the large numbers of troops stationed there.
You are right about keeping the islands is expensive 1,000 troops is going to cost in excess of £30m per annum without taking into account of the logistics and keeping fighter aircraft combat ready ships, guns,you name it.
To say Britain has no reason to negotiate assumes we have an endless pool of money and that our forces are idle. Both these ideas are obvious nonsense.

A treaty with Argentina would benefit all, I do not believe we can afford to keep them financially, but strategically we cannot afford to loose them.
Argentina cannot afford to pass up all this trade and its world wide reputation would be enhanced considerably by coming to the negociation table.

Talk of war and gunships will only distance Argentina from the world again, I love Argentina and it's people, I just hope and pray that both our governments can see sense.

 

[cabrera]

Mr Tangobob your post is good but unfortunately war is coming and soon . Todays events have escalated the situation a few notches and many people in the United Kindgom are now ready to fight this . Read the letters from enraged readers on the comments page . They are openly calling for a full scale war!!!


Argentina has said that it is taking control over all shipping between its coast and the Falkand Islands, effectively awarding itself the power to blockade the disputed territory.
According to a decree issued by President Kirchner, all ships sailing through the waters claimed by Argentina must hold a permit. The measure looks set to deepen a row over conflicting claims to oil beds lying inside the Falklands’ territorial waters.
Argentina still claims sovereignty over the islands it calls “Las Malvinas”, nearly three decades after the end of the Falklands conflict in which more than a thousand people died.
Tensions over the islands remained buried until the discovery of potentially rich energy reserves in the Falklands’ seabed. Argentina protested to Britain this month over plans to begin offshore drilling near the islands.


Yesterday’s decree amounted to an Argentinian move to control all traffic from South America towards the islands, including an oil rig due to arrive today and start drilling next year.
“Any boat that wants to travel between ports on the Argentine mainland to the Islas Malvinas, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands . . . must first ask for permission from the Argentine government,” Aníbal Fernández, the Argentinian Cabinet chief said.
He said that the decree would force all ships bound for the islands or travelling through waters claimed by Argentina to secure the new permit.
Argentina is trying to prevent British oil companies exploiting what experts say could be substantial oil reserves. Buenos Aires has been enraged by Britain’s refusal to stop explorations in the face of its long-standing sovereignty claim. Last week it detained a ship, the Thor Leader, which it said had been illegally transporting pipes to the Falklands.
The impending arrival of the Ocean Guardian rig has increased tensions farther, amid reports from waiting crew members on the islands that it had been shadowed by Argentinian jets during the final stage of its journey from the Scottish Highlands.
Last week Argentina vowed to take its complaint against Britain to the United Nations. Jorge Taiana, its Foreign Minister, warned that his goverment would take “all necessary steps” to defend its claim on the islands, 300 miles from the coastline.
Geological studies estimate that up to 60 billion barrels of oil could be buried in the seabed around the Falklands, making it a reserve on the scale of the North Sea, which has so far produced 40 billion. The majority of the exploration rights have been awarded to London-based Desire Petroleum, which will drill in the area for the first time since Royal Dutch Shell abandoned its bid in 1998.
The islanders have tried to shrug off the prospect of a new conflict. “There has been an economic blockade of the Falklands from Argentina for many years now,” said Roger Spink, the director of the Falkland Islands Company. “It’s something we’ve come to expect. ”
Britain has more than 1,000 military personnel on land and more than 300 at sea in the region, as well as four Typhoon jets, a destroyer and a patrol boat in the region.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7029609.ece

 

[esllou]

there will not be a new war. There will be a continuation of empty threats and meaningless legislation, which is what argentina has been reduced to doing for the last 2 decades.

 

[jp]

I wouldn't put much stake in what enraged readers put on online comments pages. Its barely a news item over here. There's no real political will for war in the UK, beyond the braying of internet loons.

Always sad to see the Malvinas in the news. Far too many kids died during the whole miserable ordeal, and watching deeply unpopular politicians try and milk the situation for political gain is repugnant.

 

[esllou]

I'm pretty sure successive argentinian governments have ruled ruled out using force to get possession of the falklands, so that's yet another reason why there won't be a war.

the forces that are currently on the island are enough to repulse the whole of the argentine military even if they wanted to attack and the argentines know that.

there's more chance of george bush jr. announcing he's a lesbian tomorrow.

 

[cabrera]

People say no war when facts show war is possible and more probable now than for many years. Christina Kirchner our president of Argentina has low ratings and she knows like all Argentines that the Malvinas issue is support by 90 percent of the population . These new laws put in effect today will actually improve her popularity a lot to the suprise of some expats.

Also United Kingdom has unpopular prime minister Gordon Brown who knows as well that a huge majority of his citizens would support another war with Argentina for Malvinas ( Falklands) sovereignity . This also will help his popularity like Maggie Thatcher who won huge popularity for the war with Argentina.

People say these islands are worthless and they Argentina and the United Kingdom should not fight but the assets of the sea are very high and Argentina has the right to claim this as this is rightfully ours.

With the new laws in effect and the situation escalating anything is possible . Before the last war in 1982 noone in Buenos Aires would have predicted that we would be in war with Great Britain but it happened and we have again history repeating itself.

 

[esllou]

no, the situations are completely different, not least because "50 marines and a slightly overweight labrador" (1982) is a tad different from "1000 marines, 2 warships, 4 state-of-the-art air defence jets and several helicopters" (2010). The argentine government renounced the use of force in 1998 as a way of solving the problem.

If though you prefer to believe the rabid rantings of idiots on a UK newspaper's comments column, let's both entrust a thousand pesos with a third person on this forum. If there's no war by December 31st, 2010, I get to keep it all.

deal??

 

[Matt84]

esllou I offer to be your witness.

lol, this is such an obvious troll I don't even know why we bother replying. If Argentina attacked British soil or waters that would automatically break ties with the EU, USA, and probably the rest of the intl community.
The two only players in the area, Brazil and Chile, have military agreements with both blocks (Br with Italy Chile w the states). Ludicrous.

 

[bloody_bloo]

"Esto es una cortina de humo" - This is a smoke curtain.

The actual government will use this until it's last drop to distract public opinion, the same way Iron Thatcher Lady did to f*ck up the unions in the middle of a crisis while toying with war, but no more lame than a gang of drunk military mental disabled that thought they could force Great Britain to their knees trying to cover another economic crisis and tons of corruption.

They can't pretend oil interest over Malvinas while they actually choose to ignore the Potosí style mining operations done by American and Canadian corporate pigs molded in the most shameful bribery clay. You can even find evidence of Cristina receiving campaign support from this companies.

If history can teach something is that english were well known pirates and as such they run sacked every corner they could by the premise "divide and conquer", Malvinas was just another far outpost of occupied territory, one of many many.

The real irony of all this is no matter how angry you can get discussing this, is that many argentineans believe that we were wrong about pushing back british invasions, we should have allowed them to invade us and maybe with some luck end up like Australia.

A Hong Kong solution was only possible because they could crush any UK colony or the UK itself in a blink of an eye or more simple, by simply throwing a rice coup downtown and wait for the millions of hungry oppressed chinese to simply walk in.

 

[arichie]

esllou I offer to be your witness.

lol, this is such an obvious troll I don't even know why we bother replying. If Argentina attacked British soil or waters that would automatically break ties with the EU, USA, and probably the rest of the intl community.
The two only players in the area, Brazil and Chile, have military agreements with both blocks (Br with Italy Chile w the states). Ludicrous.

I don't think the Chinese or Russia would be backing Britain. And if China did back Argentina, what would the US do given their entire economy is now basically held hostage by the Chinese? Do you think the US would risk pissing off China over an island that may or may not be swimming in a sea of extractable natural resources? The US didn't exactly rush to support the British the last time.