Market Thinks Argentina Won't Default

[glasgowjohn]

Matias?

Are you joking?

Where do you shop?

 

[thorsten]

Matias, even according to the official numbers, the inflation didn't stop and it didn't stop to grow. The growth rate is not increasing anymore, which is very different to your claims, especially at the current levels... You will most likely end up with a inflation rate of about 30% over the year and I would not sell such a number as a success.

 

[notebook.fix]

It is a smart move from Cristina.

.
The word 'smart' and Cristina do not go together, that's why they won't ever allow a free press conference, look at the fiasco at Harvard University, in front of those students, she couldn't debate her way out of a wet paper bag without becoming a nervous mess.

She wants governability, make a smooth transition to next government.

Nope, what she wants is to avoid going to jail when she finishes her term.

She wants governability

She will do what ever it takes to cover her a$$/corruption/theft and will therefore position herself to stay in power even while not 'officially' President...even if she has to totally destroy the country in the process, the aim of the game is to NEVER let the country breathe in peace and freedom... the same measures that other corrupt criminal Peronist leaders have taken in the past.

What some term a "smart move" is nothing more than her ability to still fool some of her die hard followers into thinking that she actually cares about anything more than her own selfish greedy interests., just look at what happened today with the national soccer team, unlike her counter parts Dilma & Merkel - while almost the whole country stopped to watch and support their home team in the final she didn't even bother herself with watching the game, let alone organize some basic security for their promised appearance at the obelisco today..they had to cancel cause of lack of basic security procedures after last nights city riots and looting. They didn't win for her majesty so she discards them like used toilet paper. You can bet she would have milked them to the last drop if the team had come home with the world cup..."but she appeared on TV with them this morning" some will argue in her defense....hmmm only cause it's politically impossible to avoid & what's there to loose in having a free photo op with the boys?

 

[EdRooney]

Sweet! I knew we could get the Ks and Anti-Ks out to defend their positions regardless of the facts.

Carry on lads.

 

[notebook.fix]

Sweet! I knew we could get the Ks and Anti-Ks out to defend their positions regardless of the facts.

What facts?

You have to be profoundly naive to think that there won't be some ugly sentiment towards this government and their supporters on this forum when posting on the sensitive topic of the possible 'Default'...this is not to say we can't touch the subject, but to categorize and lump it all into 'K and Anti K is to reveal just how unsophisticated you are in your ability to gauge the political voltage of the topic you are currently posting about. No more to be said. Yeah, I know, you like to stir it up, even at the risk of appearing to be waving a positive flag for the Government. I 'do' get the joke Rooney. Have your little giggles.

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

They have made some steps towards normalising the economy. I suspect last years electoral kick in the plums has taken it's toll, she promoted Kiciloff and got rid of some dinosaurs. Might be too little to late.

Chevron, and probably Montsanto, is a useful example to demolish the myth that this govt is a economically progressive govt intent on wealth redistribution. Once you are inside the circle of trust ($$ buys a ticket ringside) then clientelismo and monopolies are actively encouraged. Snr Macri wouldnt be any different, alas. Debt negotiations have been positive, but the last step has been far too emotive and not pragmatic. I could get on board if they would come out and say, look, we need to pay these people off, we will and we'll try and get the best deal for everyone. Unfortunately we get posters and the lilke.

My theory, a little out there, is that FpV realise their best bet for a swift retun is Macri. They would struggle to differentiate themselves against Massa and co. Peron vs Peron is a tougher battle. They dont really want Scioli in as he is off message so they'll let him sink. If Macri gets in, they have a clear contrast and a easier message (once Macri starts leaning towards private enterprise and his brand of clientelismo!) for 2020 (or 2019). They might fancy ducking out now, from a distant they can sell the gains made from the post crisis period and let Macri drown himself in an unwinnable battle against union wage demands, import/export reforms and any other battle ground the campora acolytes decide to complicate for him. I dont particularly like FpV as a govt, but as an opposition they would be incredibly difficult.

I honestly believe that's why they have buddied up, Ilia motorway etc. They have decidede to let him take his shot while they wait for a juicy moment to get back in. Moyano will get bored of Independiente soon enough and half way through the next term will return to wreak havoc.

I might have been watching too much Game of Thrones....

 

[Dublin2BuenosAires]

Also....the first FpV insider has uttered the unthinkable, that they might throw Amadou under the bus too. Get out, pick a few sacrifical lambs to go away for a short spell and come back purged & ready for another round of plundering.

 

[ghost]

Sorry if it was not clear.

I was trying to show that:

1. The market approves of the course the Argentine government is taking. (Whether or not this is healthy for the real economy is up for debate, since the market traditionally seems to love it when economies tank-- e.g. see the US right now.)

2. Both CFK supporters and detractors alike claim that the administration is some kind of anti-capitalist juggernaut. The evidence says otherwise.

Whenever Mr Market is liking something I am holding a book over my ass. Did I mention the depraved shit bags that happily paid a 7 Billion dollar fine on the same day they announced quarterly earnings of 3.9 B. Peanuts and Obama's stooges hold it up as a trophy after these pigs wiped out 40% of the worlds wealth.

 

[EdRooney]

I could get on board if they would come out and say, look, we need to pay these people off, we will and we'll try and get the best deal for everyone.

CFK speech on 17 June: "Argentina cumplirá sus obligaciones" and Kicilloff later added "La Argentina cumplirá sus obligaciones y honrará sus deudas"

Cavehill, please see Matías to get your FpV membership card and a free set of socks.

 

[dennisr]

Argentina is really between a rock and a hard place: RUFO clause. If AR appears to "voluntarily" make a deal with the Vultures and it is better than what the settled bond holders received, the RUFO (rights upon future offers) clause could be invoked by settled bond holders. Back to square one. The clause expires in December 2014. It is a mess. Another round of court battles.