Milei: No Dollarization in 2024

[Quilombo]

Coming as a surprise to none of us that can count, Milei confirmed today that Argentina will not be dollarizing in 2024.

Paired with the adjustment, continued high inflation, and a massive decline in purchasing power, he may be setting himself up for
failure during the midterms next year as it will have been all pain, and no gain; dollarized prices with peso incomes.

If we recall the 2022 Midterms, Alberto's 2024 goose was cooked that night, and my personal prognostication is that if we don't dollarize
prior to the elections in 2025 he'll likely suffer the same fate, as he will have failed to deliver on the most popular platform plank.

Given the still pitiful reserves, an economy barreling towards rampant stagflation, and negative GDP growth, I seriously doubt ATMs will
be spitting out greenbacks even next year, but I'm willing to admit if I'm wrong.

What does everyone else's crystal balls say?

 

[retiredbanker]

Coming as a surprise to none of us that can count, Milei confirmed today that Argentina will not be dollarizing in 2024.

Paired with the adjustment, continued high inflation, and a massive decline in purchasing power, he may be setting himself up for
failure during the midterms next year as it will have been all pain, and no gain; dollarized prices with peso incomes.

If we recall the 2022 Midterms, Alberto's 2024 goose was cooked that night, and my personal prognostication is that if we don't dollarize
prior to the elections in 2025 he'll likely suffer the same fate, as he will have failed to deliver on the most popular platform plank.

Given the still pitiful reserves, an economy barreling towards rampant stagflation, and negative GDP growth, I seriously doubt ATMs will
be spitting out greenbacks even next year, but I'm willing to admit if I'm wrong.

What does everyone else's crystal balls say?

Have you noticed the abnormally large lines at the "caves" these past weeks? There are 3 in my area (1 with seating for 40) and all are busy during business hours. While dollarization itself may not occur, seems the people here still highly covet them.

 

[argeiCanuck]

Dollarizing to fix the economy is the tail wagging the . Nevertheless I am sure it had lots of benefits (countless benefits ,,, ) for Zimbabwe.
Did he say in 15 years? Let us not rush.

 

[antipodean]

My crystal ball: We will go bi-monetary long before we actually "dollarize". I suspect we will get stuck in a bi-monetary system indefinitely and it will be given spin-treatment to pass it off as a political victory as prices will be more stable and real wages will be higher as a result and people will indeed "see dollarization" everywhere in terms of price-tags.

Already the majority of B2B providers are sending their quotations for products and services in dollars (payable in pesos at official/blue/MEP... whatever they want to gamble on) and most B2B contracts are done with prices in dollars. Very few businesses, except the smallest, still do B2B business in pesos. Prices for most serious consumer purchases (cars, luxury furniture, travel packages, hotels etc) also already long since have price tags in dollars.

All people want is stability and eventually this "price-tag dollarisation" needs to translate more broadly to wages. With that, more people will know how much they will earn and what they should be able to afford in order to have a more "normal" life. If they use greenbacks or orangebacks to make an actual transaction, it doesn't matter too much providing they can change and keep the money they are paid in USD (or something else that holds its worth until the day they go to spend it) and there are strong projections (including by the IMF) that the CEPO (capital controls) will end some time this year, which combined with the content of the DNU would make such a scenario entirely feasible.

 

[Quilombo]

Have you noticed the abnormally large lines at the "caves" these past weeks? There are 3 in my area (1 with seating for 40) and all are busy during business hours. While dollarization itself may not occur, seems the people here still highly covet them.

Florida was busy last week when I passed by the caves, lots of people buying (or selling) dollars which isn't surprising.

 

[FrankPintor]

Florida was busy last week when I passed by the caves, lots of people buying (or selling) dollars which isn't surprising.

Not surprising, since it's always been that way, it seems. Just a few weeks ago, chatting to an Argentinian colleague about my age, he mentioned that his grandfather (!) told him that Dollars are never too expensive: whatever the exchange rate, buy them. I was a bit shocked, but this is how the middle class here has been thinking for the last 50 years.

 

[mikic007]

Not surprising, since it's always been that way, it seems. Just a few weeks ago, chatting to an Argentinian colleague about my age, he mentioned that his grandfather (!) told him that Dollars are never too expensive: whatever the exchange rate, buy them. I was a bit shocked, but this is how the middle class here has been thinking for the last 50 years.

This is true, but some of my friends, who were always buying, are now not, or are even selling. There are simply not enough pesos to get through the month and maintaining similar lifestyle. That's why dólar stopped rising, people are broke. By all accounts it should skyrocket, but it doesn't.

 

[jantango]

In 1999, it was possible to pay in pesos or dollars since they were equal. The ATMs were stocked with pesos and dollars. I withdrew dollars from my US account to pay $700 rent for two years before moving to a less expensive rental.

The money games continue.

 

[Rich One]

No Dollarization, No Blowing Central Bank, No Chainsaw...! Just adding Casta, adding more old JxC losers.
Like Scioli et. al.

 

[MilHojas]

Open Letter Of Warning To Argentina’s Javier Milei From Steve Forbes

An open letter of warning to Argentina’s new free market president, Javier Milei.

www.forbes.com

Archived version