New Exchange Rate On Wednesday

[ElQueso]

There are a couple of issues here:

1. Personally, my default position with any incoming government-- especially one with which I tend to be more aligned ideologically-- is extreme skepticism. They are now in power so the burden of proof is on them to show they can put their money where their mouth is. This was, ironically, also my position when CFK took power, and time and their serious policy blunders proved that I was right to be skeptical from the outset.

2. Because of the high-pitched tone of politics here (and elsewhere), there is an all-too common tendency to confuse "I hate X's policies" with "X is an idiot". At no point would I have accused Kiciloff or CFK or Capitanich of "not knowing what they were doing"; rather they were implementing policies that I personally disagreed with. Same is true for Prat Gay et co. You'd have to be daft to accuse him, Sturzenegger, Melconian, etc. of not knowing what they are doing. Whether or not you agree with those policy goals, however, is a whole 'nuther ball of wax.

I pretty much agree with you, with a couple of comments of my own

1) I think that's a really good attitude to have, but personally, I find myself, often like an idiot, wanting to believe something so bad that I have a hard time being so critical of someone who promises to set things aright. It is a definite character flaw of mine that I tend to trust until the person lets me down instead of coming into the situation with skepticism. Indeed, you'd think I wouldn't be so quick to trust someone like Macri even though he says many things that I do identify with simply because I don't trust any government and believe they are no better than monarchies of the past or other systems that enthralled the people for their own gains! I can't offer a good explanation except to say that like all human beings, I am simply flawed. Heh.

2) I agree in general that "hating X's policies" does not always equate to "X is an idiot". However, when one looks at the supposed goals of X, even if X cleverly negotiates whatever minefield they may have negotiated, one must also look at whether or not X achieved those goals, or even made inroads towards such. If you take someone like Cristina, et al, and look at their stated goals (equality for all, good education, good life for all, etc), in my opinion they failed miserably. They failed so badly that a country who has voted ostensibly "peronist" for the last few decades voted against it this time. Looked at in this light, they were idiots in my opinion - not because of their stated goals and the policies they used, but because their actions never got close to achieving their stated goals and the trouble they brought on to so many people along the way, along with how they reacted to the results of their policies in the last few years, made them look really, really bad to me.

But regards Bajo's statement that we're throwing hate around on this forum - I don't hate Cristina. I do indeed despise her policies because they put more people into poverty, or at the very, very best kept as many people there as there were before. And while she may be a very smart political animal, I think she's not exactly a good example of a good human being, given what I saw in the last few years. I say that not because i know her, but because in my eyes her policies and the way she enacted them makes her appear that way.

 

[dennisr]

To be specific for those of us that DO Not have Bank Accounts, Will have to pay a 5% fee to cash our greenbacks??? B)

5%:
Discourage you and I from buying dollars at the official rate (13.95) and walking 100 meters to sell our new found dollars and cashing out at the blue rate (14.37). Now repeat, take your blue pesos and backtrack to your official exchange house and buy dollars again....: a literal "carry trade."

 

[wineguy999]

...However, when one looks at the supposed goals of X, even if X cleverly negotiates whatever minefield they may have negotiated, one must also look at whether or not X achieved those goals, or even made inroads towards such. If you take someone like Cristina, et al, and look at their stated goals (equality for all, good education, good life for all, etc), in my opinion they failed miserably...because their actions never got close to achieving their stated goals and the trouble they brought on to so many people along the way, along with how they reacted to the results of their policies in the last few years, made them look really, really bad to me.

Like. This.

 

[EdRooney]

Cheese,

I mostly agree as well, although my take is slightly different:

The "stated goals" you mentioned for the FpV (equality, good education, better life for all, etc.) are clearly Cambiemos' stated goals as well. In fact, there would be few political parties that would not ascribe to these nebulous goals. In addition, both say they want to eradicate poverty, but I look at their policies and I don't see how either of them do so with their economic platforms. Political parties are great at rhetoric (and this last campaign was a real whopper in that regard) but there is an obvious mismatch between their rhetoric and their policies. This mismatch is not because they are idiots; quite the contrary. Politicians respond to pressure and interests, not philosophies and ideologies. Their goal is to get in power and remain in power, and their method to do this (going back to monarchies, republics, empires, dictatorships, communism, whatever...) is to seek powerful groups who will help them achieve that goal. The FpV and Cambiemos respond to 2 different power conglomerations in Argentine society, and therein lies the difference. The stated goals are, unfortunately, platitudes to win votes. There's actually a legal concept for this (I dont remember the Latin term now) which states that if your actions obviously would have led to a certain effect, then it is the effect that was your original goal, not whatever you might say you wanted to do.

So as I see it (and i am always delighted to hear your take), they are not stupidly trying to achieve a goal and failing. On the contrary, both Cambiemos and the FpV are filled with people who, with some exceptions (D'Elia, P. Bullrich...) are where they are because they are not stupid and they are skillful at obtaining their goal: power.

 

[Ries]

If you actually read Bianca Fernet's column on the bubble, you will understand that the cepo is not one law, but dozens of intertwining ones.
It will take days, weeks, months, and even years for all of them to be changed, and for the good and bad affects of changing them to settle out.

I am amused when I see pro-Macri people predicting chocolate Fernet flavored unicorns TOMORROW, and anti-Macri people predicting another Military Dictatorship TOMORROW.

If you have lived in Argentina even one week, you would know, nothing ever happens that fast, there will be a holiday, and, its complicated.

Maybe, in a couple of weeks, the effect of this one part of undoing the Cepo will be evident.

Also- I have been going to the same Cueva for 8 years now.
I have never seen "public officials" with wheelbarrows of cash- but, of course, they probably get the private rooms-
What I see, everyday, is hundreds of ordinary Argentines, buying and selling dollars and pesos in pretty small amounts, to save, to try to make a slightly higher rate of return, to buy a car or a house or a present for a slightly lower rate, to get some money for a trip, to buy parts or materials or products wholesale from sellers who want dollars, and many other ordinary, everyday, non-criminal things.
I see grandmothers and businessmen and foreign exchange students and musicians and restaurant owners.

Were they, technically, "criminals", because they were trying to beat the tax laws, and make a percentage point or two?
Legally, yes, that Abuela was breaking the law, by trying to have a few US dollars.
But I dont think she should be sent to jail.

 

[nicoenarg]

Man, that is just f..ing hilarious!
Why? Please tell me why?

LOL yeah that is probably the most pathetic thing I've seen in a while. Shocked me, so I had to share it!

 

[Gringoboy]

Ries, I don't appreciate being put in the same boat as that Abuela.
Either throw her overboard or I'll abandon ship.

 

[ElQueso]

Very good points EdRooney. And in fact, you made me realize that indeed I was still being a bit naive in my thinking (or perhaps I'd simply not gone far enough in my specific reasoning).

I completely agree that the stated goals of a politician are tools to win votes. Anyone who will have power that means anything, in a democracy at least (as well in a company's board of directors, even), must troll for votes, promising things that enough people will identify with to put them in office.

Cristina was indeed skilled at getting things her own way. Perhaps idiot is too strong a word to describe her and her ministers, but blind to anything but her own desires seems pretty clear to me. She is certainly guilty of hubris and arrogance. While perhaps not outright idiocy, the results of her last 8 years were not success in my book and that of many others in this country.

For someone in the power game, that's not very smart. In the end, it appears that she wasn't very good keeping at what I think we both agree that she wanted above all: power. The majority of the people rejected her as a success and to allow her a continuation of power. in fact, no matter what lies came out of her administration about the shape of things in the country, most people were not idiots enough to agree with what seems to me to be the closest thing to outright idiocy that she demonstrated: thinking that everyone (or enough people) would believe the lies she was telling. A completely non-idiot would not depend on the people being such idiots themselves.

The way she implemented her policies was devoid of any give and take, which is a serious error for a smart person, no matter whether I (or anyone else) agrees with their policies. Cleverness and cunning is one thing (even animals without sentience display this). Intelligence and understanding is another. I'll agree that she certainly had enough cleverness and cunning, but was at least lacking in a major way in understanding, if not intelligence itself.

A quick Google on synonyms for idiocy include such words as "foolhardiness", "thoughtlessness", "Inanity", and "illogicality" - many of which, to me, describe her actions and results when compared to the stated goals, or the more probable personal goals of her immense ego - power itself. The definition of idiocy: something that is extremely stupid or foolish. Believing one's own lies is certainly foolish and, to me, idiocy. Therefore, while maybe not a complete idiot herself, her actions turned out to have an element of idiocy in them.

Idiocy, perhaps, is nothing more than a catch-word for people who succumb to their own failings, at least in this case.

 

[Ries]

Ries, I don't appreciate being put in the same boat as that Abuela.
Either throw her overboard or I'll abandon ship.

she is very cute, and she just wants to take her grandchildren, who are US citizens, to SawGrass Mall and buy them some toys...

But really, you prove my point.
Everybody uses the Cueva except the very poor.
Many of the transactions are only for $20 US, and as many people on a given day are selling dollars they have been saving, to pay some bill in pesos, as are buying dollars to spend on illicit trips to Miami.

 

[mikic007]

Also- I have been going to the same Cueva for 8 years now.
I have never seen "public officials" with wheelbarrows of cash- but, of course, they probably get the private rooms-
What I see, everyday, is hundreds of ordinary Argentines, buying and selling dollars and pesos in pretty small amounts, to save, to try to make a slightly higher rate of return, to buy a car or a house or a present for a slightly lower rate, to get some money for a trip, to buy parts or materials or products wholesale from sellers who want dollars, and many other ordinary, everyday, non-criminal things.
I see grandmothers and businessmen and foreign exchange students and musicians and restaurant owners.

Were they, technically, "criminals", because they were trying to beat the tax laws, and make a percentage point or two?
Legally, yes, that Abuela was breaking the law, by trying to have a few US dollars.
But I dont think she should be sent to jail.

The real money was done in 20+ floor of skyscrapers on personal level, not in some ordinary cueva we were visiting. There were also normal people, that just needed money to buy flat etc., but also more shady customers.