New Exchange Rate On Wednesday

[EdRooney]

I don't want to throw anyone in this forum into a panic, but I am not so sure about your assessment that

In the end, it appears that she wasn't very good keeping at what I think we both agree that she wanted above all: power. The majority of the people rejected her as a success and to allow her a continuation of power.

IMHO, it would be a huge strategic blunder to count CFK for defeated. She did not lose an election. She did not try to amend the constitution and run for a 3rd term. And whether or not she really wanted Scioli to win is at least a debatable topic, as a Cambiemos government leaves her better positioned personally for a return to office in 2019. Furthermore, as much as we might dislike it, she left office with the highest approval rating (40-50%) of any outgoing president in Argentine history, which would lead one to believe that had she stood for "rere-election", she would most likely have garnered more votes than Macri and Scioli combined. There certainly would have been no ballotage.

That said, I believe that Macri is every bit as clever as CFK, and he will likewise be adept at fomenting support, altering the public discourse and holding on to power. Of course the ones who stand to lose out in all these power plays are the Argentine people, but they have never been a deciding factor in how the elites determine policy.

Lastly, I totally agree with your point that

The way she implemented her policies was devoid of any give and take, which is a serious error for a smart person

Having power-hungry people in control of government is by no means the most efficient or intelligent system, but it is most unfortunately a standard across the globe.

 

[sesamosinsal]

Politicians respond to pressure and interests, not philosophies and ideologies.

Generally-speaking? Because I do believe that politicians are driven in part by ideological/philosophical goals.

A good politician responds to both the pressure/interests as well as voters. I think Cristina was excellent at appeasing her base, but terrible at negotiating with the other power centers in Argentine politics. An excellent politician does both, and that's not easy.

 

[EdRooney]

Who said voters can't be a pressure base? FDR certainly saw them as a pressure group to counter-balance the monied classes. And closer to home, just ask De La Rúa...

 

[Gringoboy]

she is very cute, and she just wants to take her grandchildren, who are US citizens, to SawGrass Mall and buy them some toys...

But really, you prove my point.
Everybody uses the Cueva except the very poor.
Many of the transactions are only for $20 US, and as many people on a given day are selling dollars they have been saving, to pay some bill in pesos, as are buying dollars to spend on illicit trips to Miami.

We must be talking abut another Abuela then, because I certainly wouldn't refer to Bonafini as cute. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

[nicoenarg]

she left office with the highest approval rating (40-50%) of any outgoing president in Argentine history...had she stood for "rere-election", she would most likely have garnered more votes than Macri and Scioli combined. There certainly would have been no ballotage.

Not so sure about that one to be honest. Scioli was supposed to cruise through the first round as well according to most polls with many predicting a comfortable win in the first round. Macri was supposed to have a 7-9 point advantage in the second round. Reality, on the other hand, leads one to believe that these numbers are, politely speaking, total BS.

It is debatable whether she wanted Scioli to win or not, it is not debatable whether she wanted Anibal Fernandez and his mustache to win in the provincia. That was a huge slap in the face of CFK; whether it was because people can't stand the mustache and didn't give two sh*ts about what CFK wanted or because they'd had enough of CFK's puppets, again, can be debated. Certainly no one can stand CFK's personal dog Zanini.

Lets not forget that many, including Scioli's own people, understood that people did not like that Scioli appeared as just another one of CFK's puppets. Hence the oft-repeated (and in my opinion totally insane) line from his folks saying that he's going to be more "Scioli" than ever. Even he went many times saying "Voy a ser mas Scioli que nunca!!" (Dafuq?!)

CFK has a following. I would say its in 20% to even almost 30%. More than that the country neither has the patience nor the will to have more divisiveness. This air of divisiveness does work for a while (and its certainly not unique to Argentina) but once it gets tiring its hard to keep riding that wave. That is what seems to have happened with CFK and Kirchnerismo, at least for now.

 

[EdRooney]

CFK has a following. I would say its in 20% to even almost 30%.

“There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent.”

― Lao Tzu

According to NYT her approval was recently at 40% and rising. WSJ had her at 43%.

Meanwhile, in the recent election, Scioli was the option most hated by the core FpV supporters for years, and once the K leadership substituted him for Randazzo, Scioli did scant little to motivate the FpV base. By the end of the campaign Macri had moved so far to the left (no privatisations! lets keep the plans! no devaluation!) and Scioli to the right (let's change! eliminate the cepo! no mention of CFK) that the two were practically indistinguishable in terms of policy (in spite of all the silly protestations about "dos modelos de país).

Anecdotally, in addition to the approval rating polls, I personally know quite a few people who would have voted for CFK but detest Scioli so much that they voted Macri instead. They at least would have preferred to see a Scioli more beholden to CFK, but they didn't buy it.

You may be right Nico, that it's a wave that will peter out. And point well taken about Moustachio. Time will tell. But the worst strategic mistake would be to pretend the K's are less powerful than they are.

 

[nicoenarg]

According to NYT her approval was recently at 40% and rising. WSJ had her at 43%.

Instead of going in circles on this topic just want to point out that both NYT's and WSJ's numbers are from Management & Fit who said that Scioli will be 11 points ahead of Macri in the first round. This is like the Economist quoting INDEC's numbers. Doesn't really make them more reliable.

 

[ElQueso]

I don't want to throw anyone in this forum into a panic, but I am not so sure about your assessment that
IMHO, it would be a huge strategic blunder to count CFK for defeated. She did not lose an election. She did not try to amend the constitution and run for a 3rd term. And whether or not she really wanted Scioli to win is at least a debatable topic, as a Cambiemos government leaves her better positioned personally for a return to office in 2019. Furthermore, as much as we might dislike it, she left office with the highest approval rating (40-50%) of any outgoing president in Argentine history, which would lead one to believe that had she stood for "rere-election", she would most likely have garnered more votes than Macri and Scioli combined. There certainly would have been no ballotage.
[...]

Just as an aside, because I pretty much agree with you - I actually edited down my previous post because even for me it was getting too long, and this was a point that I probably shouldn't have edited out. That's one of the reasons my posts often go so long (not that the previous one was exactly short) but because so many themes are so complicated that just making a part of a point doesn't always go far enough.

I'm on the edge of wondering whether or not Cristina herself can really get back into power, and i think it has a whole lot to do with how Macri handles things and what his end result is. but even then, I think many people may be so tired of the way Cristina handled things that it would be hard for her to overcome other, serious, peronist candidates in the coming elections. She alienated too many of them, I think.

I think also the way she went out was pretty distasteful to a lot of serious peronists. While I don't at all agree with their philosophy, i think there are a lot of respectable people that would still work with others - people like Massa, maybe.

As to her high approval ratings - I don't believe them all that much because of the number of people of all types of social levels that i talk to on a fairly regular basis and I watched many of them go from being Cristina supporters over the years to them being ready to see her go. I only know one who is still staunchly Cristina and she's a doctor. But then again I don't know any camporistas or ñoquis personally, probably her biggest support base. In fact, I have business with a gestora for some time now who used to be a big fan and she was one of the ones whose "conversion" into anti-Cristina surprised me the most.

But you're right - we certainly shouldn't count her out. If she does somehow get back in the executive seat, I don't think I will stay here any more. It would be too much for me.

 

[camberiu]

Politicians respond to pressure and interests, not philosophies and ideologies. Their goal is to get in power and remain in power, and their method to do this (going back to monarchies, republics, empires, dictatorships, communism, whatever...) is to seek powerful groups who will help them achieve that goal.

 

[Pensador]

Why is it that some of us can utterly despise corruption in the deepest levels of our being but we cannot escape the lovers of the corrupt and those that master the art of it? Ignorance is bliss. Even doctors with degrees in law can succumb to ignorance is bliss and become lovers of corruption. I am looking forward to what is coming in Argentina but something tells me watch and see.