Reneige
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- Sep 9, 2013
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Reneige, the 50% import tax has been always like that, it has nothing to do with this government.
The custom's code was enacted in 1981.
The black wednesday has nothing to do with this.
The relevant precedent here is the hiperinflacion de 1989 (over 3000% ) as the consequence of a central bank that had no usd and a strong international debit (90 billion usd).
When they are obsessed with the reservas they have this precedent in mind.
Here you have the inflación in Argentina since 1945:
http://es.m.wikipedi...tina_desde_1945
Check it out 1989.
Yes Bajo_cero, I'm very familiar with Argentina's outstanding debt (which trades on the market as zero-coupon perpetual bonds! haha), I'm familiar with the corralito, the recent Pari Passu saga, the withheld assets internationally, the issue finding dollars to retire the debt, etc. etc.
But that doesn't contradict anything I said earlier about the currency policy of this country. And to say this has nothing to to with Black Wednesday is frankly foolish, because it is the precisely the same policy of defending a currency without the foreign reserve assets to do so. EXCEPT the United Kingdom probably could have continued defending the policy by borrowing the required amount of foreign currency on the open market. Argentina does not have that option because only an Idiot would lend dollars to this government.
So we have a situation where the governement has two major dollar denominated liabilities, the first being dollar denominated debt outstanding, and the second being its policy of managing the value of the peso artificially against the dollar. Both these liabilities will result in a collapse of foreign reserves and a major fall in the value of the Peso.
It's pretty obvious to anyone with a financial / economic background, and it's blatantly discussed as such in the economic press / financial press
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/argentina-targets-online-purchases-to-slow-dollar-reserve-drain.html
Oh and finally, you discuss inflation and hyperinflation. The source of that inflation your central bank printing pesos as if they were Macdonald's napkins. Take a look at this chart and you will see that the money supply has almost doubled in two years. In fact it tracks the unofficial inflation rate rather closely : http://www.tradingeconomics.com/argentina/money-supply-m2
The fact is that it is the central bank that manages inflation, and the central bank that has failed all these times.