Can you explain what's the project after Peron's death and the end of the cold war?
Because of the oil crisis in 1970 western countries, particularly the US and some rich european countries, saw theirselves with tons of money in their banks. So after 20 years of Keynesianism there was a redefinition of economics principles, like getting back together to
Say's Law, or the fact that they needed to lend that money to make some profit, but nobody took it just like that: they needed friends dictators to lend they money, thats how the debt problem began in Latin America, and in other places too. It was totaly imposible for a country with that grade of politicization to multiply the debt for 6. So it was the end of an era in economics and the beggining of a new one. And a lot to do with this arising paradigm was the tumultuous 60s -not by accident we had all dictatorships world wide in the seventies, after the state of general protest of the sixties.
As I said before Peronismo is (sadly) the only national program of industrialisation, the only inclusive project of a Nation, of everyone with a job, with trully development of its forces. The other historical project, that oposes to Peronismo, is the "campo" project, a depressed economy with weak demand of their products so they can export, earn dollars instead of being obligated by the State to sell it in pesos. If theres a strong demand of food, the campo sell less outside, loses dollars. If you have a strong demand, the meat stays in the country and the farmers earn pesos, not dollars. So the farmers always want a depressed economy with low demand of their products. And Peronismo represents a growing internal market, a growing demand, a growing argentine salary, a dynamic economy, besides the confiscation of their production or highly taxing.
So there are this two projects. Three, actually, because the Radicalismo, UCR economically has very similar project to Peronismo. The problem of the farmer people is that they have too much power. They are the main source of dollars in the country. Our competitive sector, unike other countries in Latam, is not the industry, but the "campo". In fact, the industry depends on the dollars we get from the campo. It finances it.
One project goes for unemployment, exclude people from formal life, for poverty, for a banana republic. The other goes for industry, not big industry but PYMES, mainly textile, for consumption, for expanding the interna market, for big salaries. One has -historically- inflation. The other not. Because, as I said many times here and nobody hears me, we have a DEMAND inflation, thats the historical cause of inflation in this country: a strong demand that cannot be canalised with investment (bacause the upper classes are frightened and do not beieve in this country, with peronismo so near. So the supply always go behind the demand.
The dictatorship of course had a plan, an economic plan, and its transformations were structural. Last till today. A lot of reforms, measures taken while they governed remain till today, like the debt problem. They changed forever, and for worst, the Argentine productive structure. Apertura comercial, Reforma financiera, congelamiento de salarios, etc. They made it easy to financial capitals (which originated in the oil crisis as I said), and fractured in many parts the (political power of) the working class. While before dictatorship we had the agrarian and the
big industrial capitals fighting and competing, with the dictatorship some sort of alliance came, and made it profitable for both, and while we had one strong national trade union federation and with a lot of power, at the exit of the dictatorsship it will divide and break into pieces: two CGT, the CTA, etc. It homogeinesed the top and fragmented the working class, that what dictatorship made with terror.
