Mr McCain finds himself in a curious position. He entered the race as an experienced and well-known candidate, much-liked, with years in the Senate behind him. He was running against a virtually unknown novice, with barely any legislative achievements to boast of - and a black man with a funny name, to boot. Mr McCain was the known quantity, the safer choice, literally the elder statesman and Mr Obama had everything to prove. Yet with four weeks to go, the election is being run by both sides as though the opposite were true.
Mr Obama looks unhurried and presidential, exuding natural authority. He is running as though he were the popular incumbent. Meanwhile, the eager Mr McCain dashes to and fro, hoping to shake things up, striving for attention with one daring stroke after another.
The fact that the country has a uniquely unpopular president helps to explain this reversal of roles. Mr McCain has had to run against the administration of George W. Bush as well as against Mr Obama. As an avowed maverick, he could do that well enough - but it is difficult to be both a maverick and a safe choice.
In this subtle way, the unpopularity of the Bush administration undercut Mr McCain's advantage in seniority. It is not so much that Mr McCain is branded with the record of the Bush administration. The Obama campaign's constant charge that McCain is McSame seems to me to have mostly fallen flat. The problem is that in both opposing Mr Obama and putting distance between himself and President Bush, Mr McCain became an unknown quantity and hence a risk.
The abruptly worsening economic crisis had a reinforcing effect. It pushed the burden of explanation away from the Democratic contender, whose anti-market talking-points blend easily with the popular mood, and towards the Republican, now obliged to clarify his support for deregulation and other dubious doctrines. Never very convincing on economic issues, this is something Mr McCain has struggled to do.
Circumstances, in short, gave Mr McCain an uphill task. Give Mr Obama credit for having the wit to see it: he has spent the past few weeks watching his opponents wear themselves out. Mr McCain's temperament redoubled his difficulties. Voters can tolerate only so much unpredictability in a politician. Zeal to reform government is fine. A passion to win difficult wars can be admirable. A daring taste in running mates is refreshing. All of the above, however, begins to make people nervous. Voters start to wonder if orthodoxy is being defied for its own sake. They wonder if it all hangs together. They look out for gimmicks and mistakes: there have been plenty of both. They start to use words like "erratic".
