Pasting and Passing On a Subtle Message from a Friend Here

[Matt84]

After the Argentino military dictatorship's tragic war in 1982 where 649 Argentinos and 258 from the GB were killed in vain, the GB government became stubborn and won't discuss the status of the islands. IMO Borges was absolutely right, it was "like two bald men fighting over a comb" and as usual those responsible stayed far away to save their own skins, while the young were slaughtered.
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I don't think sovereignty is worth that many lives, but to be fair on the British side those troops were voluntary, not drafted. Now Borges was an Argentine Anglophile part Anglo himself who couldn't conciliate his principles with his loyalties. The reality is that back in 1982 a democracy with habeas corpus working just fine was attacked by a dictatorship with desaparecidos. As insignificant as those islands might be, British citizens lived there in 1982 and had the right to be defended against foreign occupation, of a power that didn;'t even guarantee habeas corpus to its citizens.

Now with the war on terror some might say the situation has reversed by that would be ignoring all the informal torturing and kidnapping that still goes on in Argentina.

In the end what I'd be thrilled to know after reading some Argentine history is why the Irredentist Argentine forces don't go for the Magellan Channel in Chile, or Atacama, or the Eastern portion of Misiones lost to Brazil, instead of focussing on two pieces of tundra off an island shared with Chile out of compromise.

 

[StevePalermo]

It is my assessment that without this war and if complete silence had been maintained about the subject, the islands would have been silently transferred to Argentina sometime in the 1990's after secret negotiations.

This is probably true, but after the invasion and the British victory, not only did it allow Thatcher to win the next election after looking like losing it (with more than 3 million unemployed it was quite likely), conceding the territory to Argentina in the foreseeable future is now politically impossible for any British government. Whatever K says, short of another invasion, the islands are staying British. Not saying its justified, but that's the way things stand.

 

[elhombresinnombre]

This is probably true, but after the invasion and the British victory, not only did it allow Thatcher to win the next election after looking like losing it (with more than 3 million unemployed it was quite likely), conceding the territory to Argentina in the foreseeable future is now politically impossible for any British government. Whatever K says, short of another invasion, the islands are staying British. Not saying its justified, but that's the way things stand.

Under normal circumstances, the press and public opinion would make it impossible to even consider such a thing but these are not normal circumstances and maybe there is a window of opportunity now.

In the name of reducing the deficit, the current British coalition government is undertaking a slash and burn approach to all beloved institutions, especially the National Health Service which is under debate right now. Even after so-called consultations, there is opposition from the -erme- Opposition, from some of the coalition members themselves and from the second chamber. How easy would it be for the government to come before the commons and say: we have to save this money. It's the Falklands or the NHS: you choose?

The British people may want to keep the Falkland Islands but to the British government they are nothing but an expensive anachronism. If I were a conspiricy theorist I might postulate that Cameron and Cristina have cooked this up together just in time for the NHS debate in the UK Commons and the Argentine presidential election later.

 

[StevePalermo]

Under normal circumstances, the press and public opinion would make it impossible to even consider such a thing but these are not normal circumstances and maybe there is a window of opportunity now.

In politics we can never say never, but I'd expect to see pigs flying before there was any movement on this in the next twenty years minimum. Unless Cameron wants to end his political career now, it just isn't going to happen.

 

[Gringoboy]

In 1947 Great Britain wanted to submit the Malvinas/Falklands case to the International Court of Justice, but this was refused by Argentina.

In 1955 Great Britain unilaterally handed the case to the International Court but Argentina claimed it wouldn't respect the decision of the court and it was dropped.

In the late 1960s, secret negotiation between Argentina and Great Britain, of handing over the islands to Argentina, but this was leaked to the islanders, who protested their right to self-determination and it came to naught.

After the Argentino military dictatorship's tragic war in 1982 where 649 Argentinos and 258 from the GB were killed in vain, the GB government became stubborn and won't discuss the status of the islands. IMO Borges was absolutely right, it was "like two bald men fighting over a comb" and as usual those responsible stayed far away to save their own skins, while the young were slaughtered.

It is my assessment that without this war and if complete silence had been maintained about the subject, the islands would have been silently transferred to Argentina sometime in the 1990's after secret negotiations.

Every time there is a crisis or elections coming up, the Argentino government starts talking islands.

How could they ever be silently transferred?

 

[elhombresinnombre]

In politics we can never say never, but I'd expect to see pigs flying before there was any movement on this in the next twenty years minimum. Unless Cameron wants to end his political career now, it just isn't going to happen.

Britain is perfectly capable of abandoning its far flung islands when it wants to: just Google 'Chagos Islanders' and see what's still happening to them. So if it were expedient, I'm sure Britain would do the same to the Falkland Islanders. But at the moment, the British people wouldn't stand for it. Put the British people in a position where they have to choose either the Falklands or the NHS and which way do you think they would go?

The NHS could well turn out to be Cameron's 'Poll Tax' and I suspect that he knows it because he has placed his ministers out in the firing line on this one. Making the British people choose to dump the Falklanders in preference to swingeing cuts in the NHS could be his way out.

As I said earlier, I'm not a conspiracy theorist so I don't believe any of this is in the process of being engineered. But I don't think the theory ought to be dismissed out of hand. If anyone remembers in 30 years time, it might be interesting to read the minutes of cabinet discussions from about now and try to find out what they were really thinking.

 

[StevePalermo]

Britain is perfectly capable of abandoning its far flung islands when it wants to: just Google 'Chagos Islanders' and see what's still happening to them. So if it were expedient, I'm sure Britain would do the same to the Falkland Islanders. But at the moment, the British people wouldn't stand for it. Put the British people in a position where they have to choose either the Falklands or the NHS and which way do you think they would go?

The NHS could well turn out to be Cameron's 'Poll Tax' and I suspect that he knows it because he has placed his ministers out in the firing line on this one. Making the British people choose to dump the Falklanders in preference to swingeing cuts in the NHS could be his way out.

As I said earlier, I'm not a conspiracy theorist so I don't believe any of this is in the process of being engineered. But I don't think the theory ought to be dismissed out of hand. If anyone remembers in 30 years time, it might be interesting to read the minutes of cabinet discussions from about now and try to find out what they were really thinking.

Abandoning the Falklands/Malvinas would be politically much more dangerous than making cuts in the NHS. They (Labour and the ConDems) have been f**king with the NHS for years, but if they give up this territory, the repercussions for the govt that did this would be far worse. There won't be a choice of NHS cuts or cutting off the F/M. Personally I don't give a damn, but it just is not going to happen.

 

[French jurist]

I see many arguments pleading for the fact the Malvinas/Falklands will never be restituted :
- It's symbolically difficult to give it back after the Malvinas war.
- Huge maritime zone (not only mentioning the Oil but also halieutic ressources, exploitation of those metallic "nodules" bottoming the sea).
- Strategic military location (not far from Brazil, a future Giant).
- It is, unless I'm wrong, the only piece of land where the Union Jack floats in South America (Britain, by giving back, would not be present on one continent....).
- Its location entails to pretend to a part of Antartica, another big Unknown, potentially very interesting. Argument even reinforced now with the global warming (could become slightly less of an hostile environment).
- And sorry for the cynical comment, but it's easier to deport black skinned & uneducated people (Chagossians like mentioned L'Homme Sans Nom and it's an aweful story indeed. Furthermore those people are like living a second tragedy since no one really cares) when the Medias are also thrown out than deporting whites, more educated, facing cameras.


Future of Falklands/Malvinas could in fact depend on Brazil, when this country will be more powerful than UK (and than France too ) in a few decades : Brazil could then see very favorably a change of sovereignty there, in favour of their southern neighbours and the legendary British pragmatism would do the rest.

 

[StevePalermo]

True, in a few decades, or even somewhat sooner, anything can happen. But in the foreseeable future, nada de nada.

 

[John.St]

Under normal circumstances, the press and public opinion would make it impossible to even consider such a thing but these are not normal circumstances and maybe there is a window of opportunity now.

If it wasn't GB then yes, but the bulldog became very stubborn after the tragic and stupid 1982 war. Whatever little is left of the empire, hit GB and they stand firm.